# The Progressive Corporation (PGR)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/PGR · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, The Progressive Corporation (PGR), nexqual.com/PGR" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 229.62 (+3.74% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 221.35 · day 222.46–229.81 · 52w 189.2–239.38 · market cap $133B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $91.1B, net income $11.7B (12.8% margin), free cash flow $16.0B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 11.4x (avg 17.5x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), net debt $6.22B.
- 7 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold PGR (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 3 added, 0 reduced, 3 unchanged.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.56 on a 1–5 scale) (25 analysts), mean target USD 230.57 (range 196–266).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +10.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +168.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-14, EPS estimate USD 4.12, revenue estimate $20.1B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $47.7B | $49.6B | $62.1B | $75.4B | $87.7B | $91.1B |
| Net income | $3.35B | $722M | $3.90B | $8.48B | $11.3B | $11.7B |
| EPS (diluted) | $5.66 | $1.18 | $6.58 | $14.40 | $19.23 | — |
| Free cash flow | $7.52B | $6.56B | $10.4B | $14.8B | $17.2B | $16.0B |
| Net margin | 7.0% | 1.5% | 6.3% | 11.3% | 12.9% | 12.8% |
| Revenue growth | +11.8% | +4.0% | +25.2% | +21.4% | +16.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.14B | $3.08B | $1.89B | $769M | $10.1B | — |
| Total debt | $4.90B | $6.39B | $6.89B | $6.89B | $6.90B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 11.4x · P/S 1.5x · EV/Sales 1.5x · P/FCF 8.4x · P/B 3.9x · FCF yield 11.97% · Earnings yield 8.78% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 6.11% · Net debt $6.22B · EV $139B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 11.8x, Dec 2024 16.6x, Dec 2023 24.0x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
7 of 80 tracked investors hold PGR. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Rolfe | Wedgewood Partners | 4.79% | $23.2M | Added +27.5% |
| Francois Rochon | Giverny Capital | 3.98% | $118M | Added +2.6% |
| Thomas Gayner | Markel Group | 1.25% | $165M | Unchanged |
| Bruce Berkowitz | Fairholme Capital | 1.06% | $15.8M | Added +8.7% |
| Tweedy Browne |  | 0.23% | $3.0M | Unchanged |
| John Rogers | Ariel Investments | 0.13% | $12.9M | New position |
| Glenn Greenberg | Brave Warrior Advisors | 0.01% | $391K | Unchanged |

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.56 on a 1–5 scale), 25 analysts; mean target USD 230.57 (low 196, high 266).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Underweight | $201 → $196 |
| 2026-10-15 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Outperform | $252 → $246 |
| 2026-10-07 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $246 → $247 |
| 2026-10-05 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $241 → $250 |
| 2026-09-18 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Reiterated | Outperform | $250 |
| 2026-09-16 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Neutral | $236 → $230 |
| 2026-08-27 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $225 → $234 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Underweight | $198 → $201 |
| 2026-08-20 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Upgrade | Market Perform → Outperform | $226 → $250 |
| 2026-08-17 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target lowered | Neutral | $220 → $200 |
| 2026-08-04 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $250 → $241 |
| 2026-07-24 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Underweight → Equal-Weight | $190 → $210 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +10.9% | +168.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +10.9% | +21.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 26.7% | 24.0% |
| Max drawdown | -14.3% (Dec 2025→May 2026) | -29.1% (May 2025→May 2026) |

## Peers (Insurance - Property & Casualty)
CB (Chubb Limited) USD 363.95 +2.54% · TRV (The Travelers Companies, Inc.) USD 405.44 +1.63% · ALL (Allstate Corporation (The)) USD 259.1 +3.21% · WRB (W.R. Berkley Corporation) USD 75.55 +1.63% · CINF (Cincinnati Financial Corporatio) USD 178.28 +2.68% · MKL (Markel Group Inc.) USD 1,905.39 +1.79%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/PGR · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $4.12 | $4.12 | -0.2% | $20.13B | 20 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $4.44 | $4.42 | +0.4% | $24.71B | 19 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $18.48 | $17.61 | +5.0% | $87.08B | 23 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $16.30 | $16.23 | +0.4% | $91.72B | 23 |