# Packaging Corporation of America (PKG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/PKG · data as of 2026-10-22 20:01 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Packaging Corporation of America (PKG), nexqual.com/PKG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 248.92 (+4.15% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 239 · day 242.69–248.92 · 52w 191.5–259.98 · market cap $22.2B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $9.53B, net income $692M (7.3% margin), free cash flow $742M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 32.1x (avg 22.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 14.1x, net debt $3.38B.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold PKG (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 4 Form 4 filings, $12.2M; 4 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($12.2M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.30 on a 1–5 scale) (10 analysts), mean target USD 265.11 (range 170–322).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +19.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +115.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-21, EPS estimate USD 2.81, revenue estimate $2.64B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.73B | $8.48B | $7.80B | $8.38B | $8.99B | $9.53B |
| Gross profit | $1.87B | $2.09B | $1.70B | $1.78B | $1.89B | — |
| Operating income | $1.24B | $1.42B | $1.08B | $1.10B | $1.11B | $1.04B |
| Net income | $841M | $1.03B | $765M | $805M | $774M | $692M |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.83 | $11.03 | $8.48 | $8.93 | $8.58 | — |
| Free cash flow | $489M | $671M | $845M | $522M | $729M | $742M |
| Gross margin | 24.2% | 24.7% | 21.8% | 21.3% | 21.0% | — |
| Operating margin | 16.1% | 16.8% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 12.3% | 10.9% |
| Net margin | 10.9% | 12.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 7.3% |
| Revenue growth | +16.1% | +9.7% | -8.0% | +7.4% | +7.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $705M | $405M | $1.14B | $787M | $601M | — |
| Total debt | $2.49B | $2.49B | $2.89B | $2.49B | $3.99B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 32.1x · P/S 2.3x · EV/EBITDA 14.1x · EV/Sales 2.7x · P/FCF 29.9x · P/B 4.8x · FCF yield 3.35% · Earnings yield 3.12% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 2.02% · Net debt $3.38B · EV $25.6B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 23.9x, Dec 2024 25.0x, Dec 2023 19.1x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold PKG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Burn | Sound Shore | 0.45% | $14.5M | Added +11.5% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 4 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Shirley Donald R. | Exec. VP | 12,000 | $3.0M | 31.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-08-07 | Hassfurther Thomas A | President | 7,063 | $1.8M | 2.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-08-03…2026-08-05 | Hassfurther Thomas A | President | 21,328 | $5.4M | 6.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-05-27 | Kowlzan Mark W | Chairman & CEO | 9,266 | $2.0M | 1.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.30 on a 1–5 scale), 10 analysts; mean target USD 265.11 (low 170, high 322).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $270 → $280 |
| 2026-10-07 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $246 → $245 |
| 2026-10-05 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $292 → $289 |
| 2026-10-02 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $254 → $253 |
| 2026-09-23 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $312 → $320 |
| 2026-09-11 | B of A Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $280 → $260 |
| 2026-08-13 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $271 → $292 |
| 2026-07-28 | Citigroup | Target raised | Neutral | $241 → $254 |
| 2026-07-28 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $271 → $312 |
| 2026-07-25 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $272 → $271 |
| 2026-07-24 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $269 → $271 |
| 2026-07-15 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $258 → $270 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +19.7% | +115.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +19.8% | +16.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 28.2% | 24.2% |
| Max drawdown | -17.2% (Feb 2026→Mar 2026) | -29.8% (Apr 2022→Sep 2022) |

## Peers (Packaging & Containers)
SW (Smurfit WestRock plc) USD 42.43 +2.34% · AMCR (Amcor plc) USD 46.28 +2.23% · IP (International Paper Company) USD 33.68 +0.15% · BALL (Ball Corporation) USD 65.81 +2.59% · AVY (Avery Dennison Corporation) USD 184.66 +3.14% · CCK (Crown Holdings, Inc.) USD 119.26 +2.62%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/PKG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in PKG's own 10-K filed 2026-02-26 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/75677/000119312526074129/pkg-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | GREIF, INC (GEF) | "In connection with the September 2025 Greif Acquisition, the Company recorded intangible assets of $420.0 million for customer relationships and $40.0 million for trademarks." |
| Partner | ODP | "Effective March 1, 2025, we have amended the agreement with ODP in which we will continue to supply commodity and non-commodity office papers through December 31, 2026." |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-22)

- "Excluding the impact of special items, earnings were $.13 above third quarter guidance of $2.91 per share primarily due to favorable price and mix in the Packaging segment and favorable earnings from the acquired Greif operations, partially offset by higher labor and operating costs and unfavorable corrugated products sales volume."
- "Considering these items, we expect fourth quarter earnings of $2.81 per share, excluding special items." We present our earnings expectation for the upcoming quarter excluding special items as special items are difficult to predict and quantify and may reflect the effect of future events."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.81 | $2.78 | +1.3% | $2.64B | 6 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $3.08 | $2.71 | +13.3% | $2.63B | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $10.59 | $10.44 | +1.4% | $10.12B | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $13.90 | $12.58 | +10.5% | $11.00B | 8 |