# Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/PLMR · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR), nexqual.com/PLMR" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 144.53 (+3.85% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 139.17 · day 138.91–145.16 · 52w 100.81–147.62 · market cap $3.83B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.09B, net income $203M (18.6% margin), free cash flow $415M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 18.9x (avg 20.0x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), net debt $233M.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 21 Form 4 filings, $14.2M; 10 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($9.0M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 19 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $0K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale) (8 analysts), mean target USD 159.17 (range 152–168).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +27.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +78.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 2.59, revenue estimate $329M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $248M | $327M | $376M | $554M | $876M | $1.09B |
| Net income | $45.8M | $52.2M | $79.2M | $118M | $197M | $203M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.76 | $2.02 | $3.13 | $4.48 | $7.17 | — |
| Free cash flow | $87.8M | $169M | $116M | $261M | $409M | $415M |
| Net margin | 18.5% | 15.9% | 21.1% | 21.2% | 22.5% | 18.6% |
| Revenue growth | +47.1% | +32.0% | +14.9% | +47.3% | +58.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $50.3M | $68.1M | $51.5M | $80.4M | $107M | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | $0K | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 18.9x · P/S 3.5x · EV/Sales 3.7x · P/FCF 9.2x · P/B 3.9x · FCF yield 10.83% · Earnings yield 5.30% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.65% · Net debt $233M · EV $4.06B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 18.8x, Dec 2024 23.6x, Dec 2023 17.7x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
11 of 21 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Armstrong Mac | CEO and Chairman | 3,500 | $484K | 0.7% | Yes | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-09-21 | Armstrong Mac | CEO and Chairman | 3,500 | $472K | 0.7% | Yes | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-08-21 | Armstrong Mac | CEO and Chairman | 3,500 | $457K | 0.7% | Yes | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-18 | Knutzen Jonathan | Chief Risk Officer | 296 | $38K | 1% | No | Routine (sold in Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-08-18 | Uchida T Christopher | Chief Financial Officer | 791 | $101K | 4.6% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & Mar & May & Jun & Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-08-18 | Christianson Jon | President | 528 | $67K | 0.8% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-07-31 | Herve Rodolphe | Chief Operating Officer | 1,207 | $163K | 20.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-21 | Armstrong Mac | CEO and Chairman | 3,500 | $480K | 0.7% | Yes | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-07-20 | Christianson Jon | President | 3,000 | $419K | 4.3% | Yes | Routine (sold in Feb & Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-07-15 | Armstrong Mac | CEO and Chairman | 60,741 | $8.0M | 11% | No | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-07-02 | Christianson Jon | President | 6,863 | $957K | 9.4% | Yes | Routine (sold in Feb & Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-06-28 | Carter Timothy | Chief People Officer | 480 | $60K | 18% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-22 | Armstrong Mac | CEO and Chairman | 3,500 | $395K | 0.8% | Yes | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-21 | Armstrong Mac | CEO and Chairman | 3,500 | $400K | 0.8% | Yes | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-18 | Knutzen Jonathan | Chief Risk Officer | 281 | $32K | 1% | No | Routine (sold in Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-18 | Uchida T Christopher | Chief Financial Officer | 783 | $90K | 4.8% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & Mar & May & Jun & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-18 | Christianson Jon | President | 522 | $60K | 0.8% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-04-21 | Armstrong Mac | CEO and Chairman | 3,500 | $458K | 0.8% | Yes | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-04-15 | Armstrong Mac | CEO and Chairman | 3,197 | $414K | 0.7% | No | Routine (sold in Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-04-15 | Christianson Jon | President | 1,937 | $249K | 2.9% | Yes | Routine (sold in Feb & Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $0K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Bradley Daryl | Director | 1 | $0K | 131.96 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.75 on a 1–5 scale), 8 analysts; mean target USD 159.17 (low 152, high 168).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $167 → $156 |
| 2026-08-11 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Outperform | $166 → $167 |
| 2026-07-20 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $150 → $167 |
| 2026-07-15 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $132 → $165 |
| 2026-07-08 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Outperform | $162 → $166 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +27.6% | +78.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +27.7% | +12.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 34.8% | 42.9% |
| Max drawdown | -26.1% (Dec 2025→Jun 2026) | -52.5% (Nov 2021→Dec 2022) |

## Peers (Insurance - Property & Casualty)
LMND (Lemonade, Inc.) USD 45.41 +0.29% · SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc.) USD 27.75 +2.36% · SKWD (Skyward Specialty Insurance Gro) USD 62.16 +1.24% · WTM (White Mountains Insurance Group) USD 2,247.52 +1.70% · SIGI (Selective Insurance Group, Inc.) USD 91.74 +0.72% · HCI (HCI Group, Inc.) USD 206.68 +1.11%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/PLMR · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in PLMR's own 10-K filed 2026-02-24 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1761312/000119312526067364/plmr-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Federal Crop Insurance | "Specific to our Crop portfolio, we purchase private reinsurance coverage which is applied to premiums and liabilities net of the inuring protection afforded by the Standard Reinsurance Agreement provided via the Federal …" |
| Supplier | Torrey Pines Re | "In addition to reinsurance purchased from traditional reinsurers, we utilize collateralized protection from the insurance-linked securities market through catastrophe bonds issued via Torrey Pines Re Ltd., a Bermuda-domi…" |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "For the full year 2026, the Company expects to achieve adjusted net income of $270 million to $280 million."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $2.59 | $2.59 | -0.2% | $328.7M | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.86 | $2.83 | +0.9% | $319.2M | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $10.05 | $9.90 | +1.6% | $1.19B | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $11.30 | $11.20 | +0.8% | $1.48B | 6 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±9.2%; last 8 reports averaged ±5.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 40.9% | ±9.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 36.1% | ±11.3% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 35.5% | ±13.6% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 35.2% | ±19.4% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 36.6% | ±22.0% |