# Portillo's Inc. (PTLO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/PTLO · data as of 2026-10-23 14:43 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Portillo's Inc. (PTLO), nexqual.com/PTLO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 4.33 (-4.10% today) · US market open, as of October 23, 2026 at 14:43 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 4.51 · day 4.32–4.46 · 52w 3.29–6.69 · market cap $314M · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 28, 2026): revenue $749M, net income $13.9M (1.9% margin), free cash flow -$9.2M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 22.6x (avg 28.9x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 9.7x, net debt $317M.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold PTLO (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $600K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.75 on a 1–5 scale) (12 analysts), mean target USD 6 (range 4–11).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -24.9% vs S&P 500 +14.5%; 5Y -88.6% vs S&P 500 +77.2%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.03, revenue estimate $193M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $535M | $587M | $680M | $711M | $732M | $749M |
| Operating income | $30.0M | $41.3M | $55.4M | $58.0M | $43.7M | $34.0M |
| Net income | -$15.2M | $10.9M | $18.4M | $29.5M | $19.3M | $13.9M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.42 | $0.25 | $0.32 | $0.46 | $0.27 | — |
| Free cash flow | $6.7M | $9.8M | -$17.1M | $9.8M | -$18.5M | -$9.2M |
| Operating margin | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% |
| Net margin | -2.8% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| Revenue growth | +17.5% | +9.7% | +15.8% | +4.5% | +3.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $39.3M | $44.4M | $10.4M | $22.9M | $20.0M | — |
| Total debt | $319M | $319M | $306M | $312M | $334M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 28, 2026)
P/E 22.6x · P/S 0.4x · EV/EBITDA 9.7x · EV/Sales 0.8x · P/B 0.7x · FCF yield -2.92% · Earnings yield 4.42% · Net debt $317M · EV $631M
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 16.7x, Dec 2024 20.4x, Dec 2023 49.6x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold PTLO. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenn Welling | Engaged Capital | 5.05% | $16.3M | Unchanged |

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 purchases, $600K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Lee Eugene I Jr | Director | 65,355 | $300K | 4.59 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-11 | Lee Eugene I Jr | Director | 70,165 | $300K | 4.28 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.75 on a 1–5 scale), 12 analysts; mean target USD 6 (low 4, high 11).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Stephens & Co. | Reiterated | Equal-Weight | $5 |
| 2026-10-09 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $5.5 → $4.5 |
| 2026-08-06 | Stephens & Co. | Reiterated | Equal-Weight | $5 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -24.9% | -88.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.5% | +77.2% |
| Per year | -24.9% | -35.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 54.7% | 55.9% |
| Max drawdown | -46.2% (Apr 2026→Sep 2026) | -92.7% (Nov 2021→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Restaurants)
CNNE (Cannae Holdings, Inc.) USD 16.33 -0.64% · FWRG (First Watch Restaurant Group, I) USD 11.09 -4.07% · BLMN (Bloomin' Brands, Inc.) USD 9.69 -5.65% · SG (Sweetgreen, Inc.) USD 9.87 -3.47% · BJRI (BJ's Restaurants, Inc.) USD 56.56 -3.79% · WEN (Wendy's Company (The)) USD 6.24 -5.05%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/PTLO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-05)

- "Revisions to the Company's Fiscal 2026 Financial Targets reflecting these actions appear in the guidance section."
- "(8) Represents fees incurred for discrete, project-based strategic initiatives that are not part of the Company's ongoing operations and are included within general and administrative expense."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.03 | $0.04 | -32.4% | $192.6M | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.07 | $0.08 | -22.1% | $195.4M | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.20 | $0.22 | -9.6% | $770.1M | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.24 | $0.26 | -10.5% | $800.2M | 7 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±16.7%; last 8 reports averaged ±9.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 62.6% | ±16.7% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 63.7% | ±21.2% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 68.1% | ±26.2% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 62.5% | ±28.4% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 67.9% | ±37.3% |