# Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/PTRN · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Pattern Group Inc. (PTRN), nexqual.com/PTRN" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 16.53 (-5.27% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 17.45 · day 16.45–17.51 · 52w 8.92–29.8 · market cap $2.93B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $3.01B, net income $26.4M (0.9% margin), free cash flow $106M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 111.2x (avg 81.7x at the last 1 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $167M; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($167M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.89 on a 1–5 scale) (9 analysts), mean target USD 27 (range 20–30).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +0.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +5.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.15, revenue estimate $854M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.37B | $1.80B | $2.50B | $3.01B |
| Gross profit | $601M | $781M | $1.09B | — |
| Operating income | $52.8M | $87.2M | $25.4M | $41.0M |
| Net income | $41.3M | $67.9M | $16.2M | $26.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.22 | $0.47 | -$1.36 | — |
| Free cash flow | $27.0M | $49.9M | $78.9M | $106M |
| Gross margin | 44.0% | 43.5% | 43.6% | — |
| Operating margin | 3.9% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% |
| Net margin | 3.0% | 3.8% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| Revenue growth | — | +31.5% | +39.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $127M | $176M | $289M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 111.2x · P/S 1.0x · P/FCF 27.6x · P/B 4.5x · FCF yield 3.62% · Earnings yield 0.90%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 81.7x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Kl Pattern Holdings Lp |  | 9,200,000 | $167M | 32.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-02 | Mather Ann | Director | 3,755 | $76K | 8.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15 | Mather Ann | Director | 5,301 | $88K | 11% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.89 on a 1–5 scale), 9 analysts; mean target USD 27 (low 20, high 30).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | Outperform | $26 → $29 |
| 2026-08-06 | Needham | Target raised | Buy | $24 → $29 |
| 2026-08-03 | Keybanc | Target raised | Overweight | $20 → $30 |
| 2026-07-14 | Jefferies | Downgrade | Buy → Hold | $21 → $30 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2025-09-15) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +0.7% | +5.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +0.7% | +5.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 68.1% | 62.5% |
| Max drawdown | -47.9% (Nov 2025→Feb 2026) | -42.9% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Internet Retail)
RVLV (Revolve Group, Inc.) USD 22.69 +3.09% · VIPS (Vipshop Holdings Limited) USD 12.77 +1.43% · LQDT (Liquidity Services, Inc.) USD 44.3 +1.70% · GLBE (Global-E Online Ltd.) USD 41.33 +0.46% · HEPS (D-Market Electronic Services & ) USD 2.79 +1.45% · ETSY (Etsy, Inc.) USD 90.82 +4.12%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/PTRN · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in PTRN's own 10-K filed 2026-03-06 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1811935/000181193526000013/ptrn-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Amazon (AMZN) | "For the year ended December 31, 2025, we derived 93% of our revenue from consumer product sales on Amazon." |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazon.com | $730.3M | 83.3% | +40.7% |
| Other online marketplaces and channels | $65.5M | 7.5% | +86.5% |
| Amazon marketplaces, international | $64.3M | 7.3% | +75.9% |
| SaaS, logistics and other revenue | $16.7M | 1.9% | +123.3% |
| Total revenue | $876.8M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | $766.8M | 87.5% | +42.2% |
| International | $110.0M | 12.5% | +87.2% |
| Total revenue | $876.8M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 93% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-03-06).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-05-06)

- "We are operating from a position of strength heading into the rest of 2026." For the second quarter 2026, Pattern anticipates: Revenues in the range of $810 million to $820 million, representing approximately 35% to 37% growth year over year."
- "For the full year 2026, Pattern anticipates: Revenues in the range of $3.29 billion to $3.33 billion, representing approximately 32% to 33% growth year over year, up from our prior guidance range of approximately 25% to 26% growth year over year."

Analysts expect $853.7M for the current quarter, +4.8% vs the guidance midpoint $815.0M. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1811935/000181193526000037/ptrn-20260331xearningsrele.htm

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.15 | $0.13 | +16.9% | $853.7M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.15 | $0.15 | +3.3% | $939.6M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.63 | $0.55 | +13.6% | $3.44B | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.79 | $0.70 | +12.6% | $4.28B | 3 |