# Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/PZZA · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Papa John's International, Inc. (PZZA), nexqual.com/PZZA" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 18.8 (+1.40% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 18.54 · day 18.42–18.95 · 52w 17.7–52.02 · market cap $619M · NMS

## Key facts
- Valuation: P/E 22.1x (avg 29.5x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 7.4x, net debt $699M.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale) (13 analysts), mean target USD 28 (range 19–43).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -62.4% vs S&P 500 +14.8%; 5Y -82.4% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.15, revenue estimate $459M. All companies reporting that day: https://nexqual.com/earnings/2026-11-05
- Dividend: USD 1.38 paid over the last 12 months, paid semiannual; latest ex-dividend date 2026-05-18; annual dividends grew 6.1% a year 2022–2025.
- Short interest: 27.93% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 4.7 days to cover.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 28, 2026)
P/E 22.1x · P/S 0.3x · EV/EBITDA 7.4x · EV/Sales 0.7x · P/FCF 17.8x · FCF yield 5.61% · Earnings yield 4.52% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 10.08% · Net debt $699M · EV $1.31B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 41.5x, Dec 2024 16.1x, Dec 2023 30.8x.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale), 13 analysts; mean target USD 28 (low 19, high 43).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Stephens & Co. | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $24 → $19 |
| 2026-08-07 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $33 → $28 |
| 2026-08-07 | Benchmark | Downgrade | Buy → Hold |  |
| 2026-08-07 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Neutral | $30 → $26 |
| 2026-08-07 | Stephens & Co. | Downgrade | Overweight → Equal-Weight | $38 → $24 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Neutral | $33 → $32 |
| 2026-07-13 | B of A Securities | Downgrade | Neutral → Underperform | $42 → $34 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -62.4% | -82.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.8% | +79.1% |
| Per year | -62.7% | -29.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 50.6% | 43.1% |
| Max drawdown | -63.4% (Oct 2025→Oct 2026) | -84.3% (Dec 2021→Oct 2026) |

## Dividends
Dividend. Paid over the last 12 months: USD 1.38 in 3 payments (semiannual).
Most recent ex-dividend date: May 18, 2026; payment date: May 29, 2026. To receive a dividend, shares must be owned before the ex-dividend date.
Latest change: raised 9.5% to USD 0.46 per payment from USD 0.42, starting with the Aug 11, 2023 ex-dividend date.
Payout ratio 230% of earnings (above 100%: dividends exceeded net income; for REITs and partnerships, cash-flow measures are more relevant) · 5-year average yield 2.48% · annual dividends grew 6.1% a year from 2022 to 2025.
| Ex-dividend date | Amount per share |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | USD 0.46 |
| 2026-02-09 | USD 0.46 |
| 2025-11-17 | USD 0.46 |
| 2025-08-18 | USD 0.46 |
| 2025-05-19 | USD 0.46 |
| 2025-02-10 | USD 0.46 |
| 2024-11-18 | USD 0.46 |
| 2024-08-19 | USD 0.46 |
Total by calendar year: 2022 USD 1.54 · 2023 USD 1.76 · 2024 USD 1.84 · 2025 USD 1.84.

## Short interest
6,784,772 shares sold short, 27.93% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 6,959,501 shares (-2.5%). Days to cover: 4.7 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

## Peers (Restaurants)
FWRG (First Watch Restaurant Group, I) USD 12.51 +8.31% · CNNE (Cannae Holdings, Inc.) USD 17.15 +1.78% · BLMN (Bloomin' Brands, Inc.) USD 10.69 +7.01% · BH (Biglari Holdings Inc.) USD 390.32 +1.47% · BJRI (BJ's Restaurants, Inc.) USD 63.28 +4.58% · SG (Sweetgreen, Inc.) USD 11.41 +1.51%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/PZZA · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.15 | $0.31 | -50.2% | $458.7M | 13 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.25 | $0.39 | -37.0% | $462.8M | 13 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.16 | $1.47 | -21.0% | $1.88B | 13 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.30 | $1.72 | -24.7% | $1.84B | 13 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±13.5%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 64.0% | ±13.5% |
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 54.4% | ±16.7% |
| 2027-01-15 | 78 | 53.2% | ±19.8% |
| 2027-03-19 | 141 | 49.8% | ±24.9% |
| 2027-04-16 | 169 | 66.1% | ±35.5% |
| 2027-06-17 | 231 | 56.8% | ±35.7% |
| 2027-09-17 | 323 | 49.4% | ±36.9% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $0.46 | $0.45 | Beat +2.2% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $0.32 | $0.37 | Miss −13.5% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.34 | $0.33 | Beat +3.0% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | $0.32 | $0.41 | Miss −22.0% | — |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).