# Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/RCAT · data as of 2026-11-10 16:44 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Red Cat Holdings, Inc. (RCAT), nexqual.com/RCAT" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 4.14 (-8.11% today) · US market open, as of November 10, 2026 at 16:44 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 4.5 · day 4.09–4.42 · 52w 3.25–18.78 · market cap $631M · NCM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $71.5M, net income -$97.5M (-136.3% margin), free cash flow -$158M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 8 Form 4 filings, $8.0M; 4 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($3.3M); 2 by opportunistic insiders (2 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (7 analysts), mean target USD 15.57 (range 6–25).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -54.8% vs S&P 500 +10.9%; 5Y +53.2% vs S&P 500 +71.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-16, EPS estimate USD -0.18, revenue estimate $40.7M. All companies reporting that day: https://nexqual.com/earnings/2026-11-16
- Dividend: RCAT paid no cash dividend in the last five years.
- Short interest: 27.06% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 4.3 days to cover.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.0M | $6.4M | $4.6M | $17.8M | $40.7M | $71.5M |
| Gross profit | $1.1M | $926K | -$834K | $3.7M | $1.3M | — |
| Operating income | — | — | -$26.3M | -$19.3M | -$66.6M | -$107M |
| Net income | -$13.2M | -$11.7M | -$28.1M | -$24.1M | -$72.1M | -$97.5M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.56 | — | -$0.52 | -$0.40 | -$0.73 | — |
| Free cash flow | — | -$16.4M | -$31.6M | -$18.0M | -$95.8M | -$158M |
| Gross margin | 21.4% | 14.4% | -18.1% | 20.6% | 3.1% | — |
| Operating margin | — | — | -570.0% | -108.2% | -163.5% | -150.2% |
| Net margin | -264.7% | -181.8% | -608.3% | -134.9% | -177.0% | -136.3% |
| Revenue growth | +1137.7% | +28.6% | -28.1% | +286.0% | — | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $277K | $4.1M | $16.0M | — | $168M | — |
| Total debt | — | $1.9M | $1.3M | — | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 8.9x · EV/Sales 4.4x · P/B 1.4x · FCF yield -24.68% · Earnings yield -15.25% · Net cash $324M · EV $315M

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
4 of 8 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Thompson Jeffrey M | Chairman of the Board, CEO | 150,000 | $677K | 1.3% | Yes (adopted March 31, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-09-15 | Thompson Jeffrey M | Chairman of the Board, CEO | 150,000 | $1.2M | 1.3% | Yes (adopted March 31, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-08-28 | Liuzza Nicholas Reyland Jr | Director | 65,000 | $553K | 13.3% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-17 | Thompson Jeffrey M | Chairman of the Board, CEO | 150,000 | $1.6M | 1.2% | Yes (adopted March 31, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2025-08-25…2026-08-11 | Moe Christopher R. | Director | 30,000 | $311K | 13% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-11 | Liuzza Nicholas Reyland Jr | Director | 55,000 | $585K | 10.1% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-07-15 | Thompson Jeffrey M | Chairman of the Board, CEO | 150,000 | $1.3M | 1.2% | Yes (adopted March 31, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-06-11 | Funk Paul Ii | Director | 165,028 | $1.9M | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 7 analysts; mean target USD 15.57 (low 6, high 25).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Neutral | $9 → $6 |
| 2026-10-20 | Needham | Reiterated | Buy | $15 |
| 2026-09-02 | Piper Sandler | Initiated | Neutral | $9 |
| 2026-08-31 | Evercore ISI Group | Initiated | Outperform | $15 |
| 2026-08-07 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Reiterated | Buy | $20 |
| 2026-08-07 | Needham | Target lowered | Buy | $20 → $15 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-11-10) | 5Y (from 2021-11-08) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -54.8% | +53.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +10.9% | +71.1% |
| Per year | -54.9% | +8.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 106.8% | 97.6% |
| Max drawdown | -80.4% (Jan 2026→Nov 2026) | -78.2% (Nov 2021→Dec 2023) |

## Dividends
RCAT paid no cash dividend in the last five years.

## Short interest
37,599,393 shares sold short, 27.06% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 37,056,400 shares (+1.5%). Days to cover: 4.3 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

## Peers (Aerospace & Defense)
KTOS (Kratos Defense & Security Solut) USD 36.63 -2.81% · LOAR (Loar Holdings Inc.) USD 77.33 -1.58% · CAE (CAE Inc) USD 27.56 +0.11% · SARO (StandardAero, Inc.) USD 28.16 -2.80% · DRS (Leonardo DRS, Inc.) USD 36.59 +0.49% · MOG-A (Moog Inc.) USD 340.37 -0.13%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/RCAT · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in RCAT's own 10-K filed 2026-03-19 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/748268/000162828026019861/rcat-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | AeroVironment Inc (AVAV) | "Partnership to Enable FANG™ FPV Drone Deployment from AeroVironment's P550™ UAS" |
| Competitor | UPS (UPS) | "Competitors in the Enterprise segment include transportation companies like United Parcel Service, Federal Express and Amazon, as well as defense companies such as Lockheed Martin Corporation, Northrop Grumman Corporatio…" |
| Competitor | Amazon (AMZN) | "Competitors in the Enterprise segment include transportation companies like United Parcel Service, Federal Express and Amazon, as well as defense companies such as Lockheed Martin Corporation, Northrop Grumman Corporatio…" |
| Competitor | Lockheed Martin (LMT) | "Competitors in the Enterprise segment include transportation companies like United Parcel Service, Federal Express and Amazon, as well as defense companies such as Lockheed Martin Corporation, Northrop Grumman Corporatio…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | $19.7M | 97.6% | +842.7% |
| Service | $477,000 | 2.4% | -57.7% |
| Total revenue | $20.2M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

In the six months ended Jun 30, 2026, a single direct customer accounted for 51% of RCAT's revenue. The company does not name this customer in the filing. (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06)

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "We remain focused on executing against the significant opportunities in front of us and progressing toward our revenue outlook." Balance Sheet • Cash at June 30, 2026 totaled $325.6 million , compared to $167.9 million at December 31, 2025. • Inventory and prepaid inventory at June 30, 2026 totaled $84.8 million , compared to $30.4 million at December 31, 2025."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.18 | $-0.14 | −$0.04 | $40.7M | 1 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.12 | $-0.08 | −$0.04 | $74.8M | 1 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.68 | $-0.68 | $0.00 | $151.1M | 1 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-0.44 | $-0.36 | −$0.08 | $214.0M | 1 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-16): ±17.2%; earnings reaction alone ±8.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | 131.4% | ±10.1% |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | 129.9% | ±17.2% |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | 118.8% | ±20.2% |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | 111.5% | ±22.5% |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | 201.6% | ±45.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | 102.7% | ±26.0% |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | 272.0% | ±70.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | 98.4% | ±32.6% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$0.23 | −$0.17 | Miss −35.3% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.22 | −$0.12 | Miss −83.3% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.17 | −$0.15 | Miss −13.3% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | −$0.16 | −$0.10 | Miss −60.0% | — |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).