# AVITA Medical, Inc. (RCEL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/RCEL · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, AVITA Medical, Inc. (RCEL), nexqual.com/RCEL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 16.71 (+1.27% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 16.5 · day 16.41–16.9 · 52w 3.22–16.9 · market cap $517M · NCM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $75.6M, net income -$43.1M (-57.0% margin), free cash flow -$24.6M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $206K; 2 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (3 analysts), mean target USD 13.56 (range 11.75–15.14).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +349.6% vs S&P 500 +14.8%; 5Y +1.5% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD -0.29, revenue estimate $32.1M. All companies reporting that day: https://nexqual.com/earnings/2026-11-05
- Dividend: RCEL paid no cash dividend in the last five years.
- Short interest: 9.26% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 8.4 days to cover.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $29.2M | $34.4M | $50.1M | $64.3M | $71.6M | $75.6M |
| Gross profit | $23.3M | $28.4M | $42.4M | $55.2M | $58.8M | — |
| Operating income | -$26.5M | -$27.5M | -$42.7M | -$56.6M | -$42.5M | -$35.2M |
| Net income | -$26.6M | -$26.7M | -$35.4M | -$61.8M | -$48.6M | -$43.1M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.17 | $1.07 | -$1.40 | -$2.39 | -$1.74 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$26.8M | -$19.5M | -$39.4M | -$58.1M | -$32.2M | -$24.6M |
| Gross margin | 79.6% | 82.4% | 84.5% | 85.8% | 82.1% | — |
| Operating margin | -90.8% | -79.9% | -85.1% | -88.1% | -59.4% | -46.6% |
| Net margin | -90.9% | -77.5% | -70.6% | -96.3% | -67.8% | -57.0% |
| Revenue growth | +104.9% | — | +45.7% | +28.1% | +11.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $111M | $79.3M | $89.1M | $35.9M | $18.2M | — |
| Total debt | — | — | $39.8M | $42.2M | $43.0M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 6.8x · FCF yield -4.76% · Earnings yield -8.34%

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
6 purchases, $206K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | Woody Joseph Fralin | Director | 5,200 | $21K | 4 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-09 | Woody Joseph Fralin | Director | 10,000 | $42K | 4.19 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-03 | Woody Joseph Fralin | Director | 10,000 | $41K | 4.09 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-01…2026-06-02 | Woody Joseph Fralin | Director | 20,000 | $85K | 4.25 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-20 | O'Toole David D | CFO | 2,000 | $9K | 4.26 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-19 | O'Toole David D | CFO | 2,000 | $8K | 4.24 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 3 analysts; mean target USD 13.56 (low 11.75, high 15.14).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | BTIG | Target raised | Buy | $11 → $15 |
| 2026-08-28 | Lake Street | Target raised | Buy | $8 → $12 |
| 2026-08-19 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $12 → $14 |
| 2026-08-19 | BTIG | Target raised | Buy | $7 → $11 |
| 2026-08-07 | BTIG | Upgrade | Neutral → Buy | $7 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +349.6% | +1.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.8% | +79.1% |
| Per year | +353.8% | +0.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 85.0% | 84.1% |
| Max drawdown | -32.6% (Feb 2026→Mar 2026) | -83.7% (Jul 2023→Jan 2026) |

## Dividends
RCEL paid no cash dividend in the last five years.

## Short interest
2,835,905 shares sold short, 9.26% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 2,885,693 shares (-1.7%). Days to cover: 8.4 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

## Peers (Medical Devices)
INSP (Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.) USD 71.18 +0.30% · ESTA (Establishment Labs Holdings Inc) USD 68.41 -0.81% · BFLY (Butterfly Network, Inc.) USD 7.51 -3.84% · UFPT (UFP Technologies, Inc.) USD 293.3 +2.55% · TMDX (TransMedics Group, Inc.) USD 67.12 +0.33% · ALMR (Alamar Biosciences, Inc.) USD 34.04 -0.76%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/RCEL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in RCEL's own 10-K filed 2026-02-12 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1762303/000119312526049031/rcel-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Stedical Scientific | "In addition, in the United States, we hold the rights to manufacture and exclusively market, sell, and distribute PermeaDerm®, a biosynthetic wound matrix, under the terms of exclusive multi-year distribution and contrac…" |
| Partner | Collagen Matrix | "In July 2024, we entered into an exclusive multi-year development and distribution agreement with Collagen Matrix, LLC d/b/a as Regenity Biosciences ("Regenity"), granting us exclusive rights to market, sell, and distrib…" |
| Partner | OrbiMed Advisors | "We had previously entered into a credit agreement with OrbiMed Advisors, LLC (as amended, the "Previous Credit Agreement") on October 18, 2023, most recently amended in the Previous Credit Agreement's Sixth Amendment, on…" |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $20.8M | 96.1% | +16.5% |
| Japan | $387,000 | 1.8% | -9.4% |
| Australia | $194,000 | 0.9% | +385.0% |
| European Union | $182,000 | 0.8% | — |
| United Kingdom | $93,000 | 0.4% | +69.1% |
| Total revenue | $21.7M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 10% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "Guidance, and Expects Fourth Quarter Cash Flow Breakeven VALENCIA, Calif., August 6, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — AVITA Medical ® , Inc."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.29 | $-0.35 | +$0.06 | $32.1M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.24 | $-0.30 | +$0.06 | $34.5M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.42 | $0.08 | +449.7% | $125.0M | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-0.60 | $-0.86 | +$0.25 | $158.5M | 4 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±17.7%; last 8 reports averaged ±21.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 22 | 86.6% | ±17.7% |
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 75.4% | ±23.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 78 | 66.4% | ±25.4% |
| 2027-04-16 | 169 | 71.6% | ±38.6% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$0.36 | −$0.39 | Beat +7.7% | +73.8% |
| May 14, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.48 | −$0.38 | Miss −26.3% | +7.0% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.54 | −$0.55 | Beat +1.8% | +8.3% |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.54 | −$0.55 | Beat +1.8% | +2.9% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | −$0.71 | −$0.46 | Miss −54.3% | +7.7% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -20.7% |
| May 8, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -26.4% |
| Feb 13, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +22.8% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 8-K | Entered a material agreement — “On August 5, 2026, the Company and Stedical Scientific, Inc. ("Stedical") entered into a Global Amendment of their existing distribution agreement and manufacturing agreement (the "Global Amendment"). Under the terms of the Global Amendment, in exchange for a $500,000 fee the Company will hold the right of first offer and refusal to expand its exclusive distribution territory to include all or a portion of the European Union, the United Kingdom, and/or Australia. In addition, the Company's share of revenue from…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1762303/000119312526344787/0001193125-26-344787-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 8-K/A | Shareholder vote results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1762303/000119312526338135/0001193125-26-338135-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1762303/000119312526338101/0001193125-26-338101-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1762303/000119312526338011/0001193125-26-338011-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.