# Radian Group Inc. (RDN)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/RDN · data as of 2026-10-28 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Radian Group Inc. (RDN), nexqual.com/RDN" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 34.96 (-2.07% on the day) · last close of Oct 28, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 35.7 · day 34.92–35.42 · 52w 30.53–41.05 · market cap $4.63B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.64B, net income $536M (32.6% margin), free cash flow $1.39B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 8.6x (avg 8.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), net debt $1.11B.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold RDN (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 13 Form 4 filings, $3.8M; 6 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($598K); 9 by opportunistic insiders (3 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $5.8M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (7 analysts), mean target USD 43.57 (range 36–48).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +8.8% vs S&P 500 +13.6%; 5Y +72.4% vs S&P 500 +79.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 1.21, revenue estimate $623M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.33B | $1.19B | $1.18B | $1.21B | $1.20B | $1.64B |
| Gross profit | $1.23B | $1.11B | $1.14B | $1.17B | — | — |
| Net income | $601M | $743M | $603M | $604M | $583M | $536M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.16 | $4.35 | $3.77 | $3.92 | $4.14 | — |
| Free cash flow | $545M | $371M | $521M | -$665M | $116M | $1.39B |
| Gross margin | 92.2% | 93.1% | 96.7% | 96.8% | — | — |
| Net margin | 45.2% | 62.4% | 51.2% | 50.1% | 48.7% | 32.6% |
| Revenue growth | -7.6% | -10.5% | -1.1% | +2.5% | -0.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $151M | $56.2M | $19.0M | $19.2M | $24.8M | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | $1.11B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 8.6x · P/S 2.8x · EV/Sales 3.5x · P/FCF 3.3x · P/B 1.0x · FCF yield 30.06% · Earnings yield 11.59% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 3.08% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.82% · Net debt $1.11B · EV $5.74B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 8.7x, Dec 2024 8.1x, Dec 2023 7.6x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold RDN. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.01% | $8.7M | Added +27.8% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
7 of 13 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Bartholomew Meghan | Sr EVP Co-Head Radian Guaranty | 7,812 | $281K | 16.6% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-14 | Hoffman Edward J | Sr EVP, General Counsel | 20,000 | $780K | 13.6% | Yes | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-03 | Bartholomew Meghan | Sr. EVP, Co-Head of MI | 1 | $0K | 0% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-03 | Conner Brad L. | Director | 1,200 | $41K | 3.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-29 | Leyden Margaret Anne | Director | 2,070 | $72K | 23.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-27 | Culang Howard Bernard | Director | 3,612 | $130K | 31% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-26 | Culang Howard Bernard | Director | 5,000 | $181K | 30% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-26 | Spiegel Noel Joseph | Director | 4,834 | $175K | 19.5% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-08 | Hoffman Edward J | Sr EVP, General Counsel | 15,000 | $570K | 13.2% | Yes | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-29 | Hoffman Edward J | Sr EVP, General Counsel | 15,000 | $555K | 12.1% | Yes | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-23 | Hoffman Edward J | Sr EVP, General Counsel | 15,000 | $540K | 10.8% | Yes | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-17 | Hoffman Edward J | Sr EVP, General Counsel | 13,009 | $455K | 8.6% | Yes | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-10 | Hoffman Edward J | Sr EVP, General Counsel | 1,991 | $70K | 1.3% | Yes | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $5.8M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01…2026-06-02 | Weinbach Michael S | Chief Executive Officer- Elect | 170,000 | $5.8M | 33.93 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 7 analysts; mean target USD 43.57 (low 36, high 48).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Barclays | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $35 → $36 |
| 2026-08-11 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Outperform | $46 → $44 |
| 2026-08-10 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $39 → $35 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +8.8% | +72.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.6% | +79.8% |
| Per year | +8.8% | +11.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 25.8% | 23.8% |
| Max drawdown | -22.4% (Jul 2026→Sep 2026) | -22.3% (Feb 2022→Jun 2022) |

## Peers (Insurance - Specialty)
MTG (MGIC Investment Corporation) USD 28.26 -1.40% · ESNT (Essent Group Ltd.) USD 65.63 -1.03% · FAF (First American Corporation (New) USD 63.55 -1.30% · ACT (Enact Holdings, Inc.) USD 47.77 -0.62% · NMIH (NMI Holdings Inc) USD 42.11 -1.10% · AGO (Assured Guaranty Ltd.) USD 69.32 -0.74%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/RDN · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in RDN's own 10-K filed 2026-02-20 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890926/000119312526061383/rdn-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Inigo | "Further, the integration of the operations and employees of Inigo may prove more difficult than anticipated, due to unknown or contingent liabilities; unanticipated issues in integrating information, management style, co…" |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "The company repaid $125 million of this borrowing during the first half of 2026 and expects to repay this borrowing in full during 2026. ▪ During the second quarter of 2026, the company repurchased 2.2 million shares of Radian Group common stock at a total cost of $76 million."
- "Under these agreements, we expect to cede future NIW as follows: 15% of policies issued between July 1, 2027 and June 30, 2028 (increasing total coverage to 30%), and 20% of policies issued between July 1, 2028 and June 30, 2029, in each case subject to certain conditions."
- "FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS All statements in this press release that address events, developments or results that we expect or anticipate may occur in the future are "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and the U.S."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.21 | $1.34 | -9.7% | $622.9M | 6 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.26 | $1.34 | -5.7% | $629.9M | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $4.87 | $5.30 | -8.0% | $2.31B | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $5.23 | $5.49 | -4.8% | $2.48B | 6 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±10.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±4.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 23 | 51.8% | ±10.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 51 | 38.2% | ±11.4% |
| 2027-02-19 | 114 | 25.7% | ±11.5% |
| 2027-05-21 | 205 | 31.6% | ±18.7% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $1.14 | $1.35 | Miss −15.6% | -5.8% |
| May 7, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $1.23 | $1.20 | Beat +2.5% | +6.5% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $1.13 | $1.09 | Beat +3.7% | +3.1% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | $1.07 | $1.01 | Beat +5.9% | -1.2% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -1.8% |
| May 1, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +5.9% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -3.7% |
| Aug 1, 2024 | — | — | — | — | -5.8% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement — “On October 28, 2026, the Board of Directors (the "Board") of Radian Group Inc. (the "Company") appointed Daniel Kobell as Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer. Mr. Kobell has served as Interim Chief Financial Officer since February 12, 2026. A description of Mr. Kobell's professional experience is disclosed in the "Executive Officers" section of the Company's 2026 Proxy Statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on April 2, 2026.” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890926/000119312526436266/0001193125-26-436266-index.htm |
| 2026-08-11 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement; Regulation FD disclosure — “Appointment of Directors On August 10, 2026, upon the recommendation of the Governance Committee of the board of directors (the "Board") of Radian Group Inc. (the "Company"), the Board increased the size of the Board from eleven to twelve directors and appointed a new director, Barry C. McCarthy, to the Board. Mr. McCarthy's compensation will be consistent with the Company's compensatory arrangements for non-employee directors. There is no arrangement or understanding between Mr. McCarthy and any other person…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890926/000119312526344694/0001193125-26-344694-index.htm |
| 2026-08-07 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890926/000119312526340290/0001193125-26-340290-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/890926/000119312526336793/0001193125-26-336793-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.