# Redwire Corporation (RDW)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/RDW · data as of 2026-10-23 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Redwire Corporation (RDW), nexqual.com/RDW" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 8.36 (+2.70% on the day) · last close of Oct 23, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 8.14 · day 7.84–8.44 · 52w 4.87–26.64 · market cap $2.09B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $426M, net income -$244M (-57.3% margin), free cash flow -$98.2M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 9 Form 4 filings, $600M; 9 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($600M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.64 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 14.28 (range 8–20).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +1.8% vs S&P 500 +14.0%; 5Y -29.6% vs S&P 500 +76.9%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD -0.09, revenue estimate $127M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $138M | $161M | $244M | $304M | $335M | $426M |
| Gross profit | $29.4M | $28.7M | $58.0M | $44.5M | $17.3M | — |
| Operating income | -$70.2M | -$146M | -$15.5M | -$42.2M | -$230M | -$215M |
| Net income | -$61.5M | -$131M | -$27.3M | -$114M | -$227M | -$244M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.36 | -$2.09 | -$0.73 | -$2.35 | -$2.28 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$39.5M | -$35.3M | -$4.4M | -$23.7M | -$191M | -$98.2M |
| Gross margin | 21.3% | 17.9% | 23.8% | 14.6% | 5.2% | — |
| Operating margin | -51.0% | -91.2% | -6.4% | -13.9% | -68.5% | -50.5% |
| Net margin | -44.7% | -81.4% | -11.2% | -37.6% | -67.6% | -57.3% |
| Revenue growth | — | +16.7% | +51.9% | +24.7% | +10.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $20.5M | $28.3M | $30.3M | $33.7M | $94.5M | — |
| Total debt | $77.6M | $77.3M | $88.2M | $126M | $85.2M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 4.9x · EV/Sales 3.7x · P/B 1.3x · FCF yield -4.70% · Earnings yield -11.68% · Net cash $509M · EV $1.58B

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 9 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Ae Red Holdings, Llc | Director | 929,435 | $10.5M | 86.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-06-11 | Ae Red Holdings, Llc | Director | 1,070,565 | $23.0M | 49.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-05-18 | Ae Red Holdings, Llc | Director | 15,247,586 | $210M | 99.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-04-22 | Ae Red Holdings, Llc | Director | 21,365,909 | $232M | 99.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-04-20…2026-04-21 | Ae Red Holdings, Llc | Director | 2,744,259 | $28.4M | 11.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-04-16…2026-04-17 | Ae Red Holdings, Llc | Director | 5,179,743 | $55.2M | 17.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-04-14…2026-04-15 | Ae Red Holdings, Llc | Director | 1,895,311 | $18.6M | 6.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-04-10…2026-04-13 | Ae Red Holdings, Llc | Director | 1,371,411 | $13.1M | 4.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-04-08…2026-04-09 | Ae Red Holdings, Llc | Director | 950,144 | $9.2M | 2.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.64 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 14.28 (low 8, high 20).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Piper Sandler | Initiated | Neutral | $11 |
| 2026-09-15 | Guggenheim | Initiated | Neutral |  |
| 2026-08-31 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Underperform | $7 → $8 |
| 2026-08-10 | Canaccord Genuity | Target raised | Buy | $14 → $15 |
| 2026-08-05 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target raised | Overweight | $9 → $13.5 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-24) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +1.8% | -29.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.0% | +76.9% |
| Per year | +1.8% | -6.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 111.8% | 92.7% |
| Max drawdown | -70.0% (May 2026→Jul 2026) | -85.0% (Nov 2021→Dec 2022) |

## Peers (Aerospace & Defense)
SARO (StandardAero, Inc.) USD 21.78 +0.28% · KTOS (Kratos Defense & Security Solut) USD 38.68 +1.07% · CAE (CAE Inc) USD 25 -0.08% · DRS (Leonardo DRS, Inc.) USD 34.51 +0.61% · MOG-B (Moog Inc.) USD 335.16 -8.43% · HII (Huntington Ingalls Industries, ) USD 274.08 -1.71%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/RDW · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in RDW's own 10-K filed 2026-02-27 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1819810/000181981026000029/rdw-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Eli Lilly (LLY) | "Redwire has launched 42 PIL-BOXes through December 31, 2025, for our partners including, but not limited to, Bristol Myers Squibb and Eli Lilly." |
| Competitor | Airbus | "We compete domestically and internationally against space systems components providers, including Airbus, Sodern, Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (a segment of Rocket Labs), UAS providers, including AeroVironment, Inc., Insitu, A B…" |
| Competitor | Boeing (BA) | "We compete domestically and internationally against space systems components providers, including Airbus, Sodern, Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (a segment of Rocket Labs), UAS providers, including AeroVironment, Inc., Insitu, A B…" |

Other companies that name RDW in their own reports (relationship from RDW's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | York Space Systems Inc. (YSS) | 10-K 2026-03-20 | "Since September 2023, General McConville has been an Operating Partner at AE Industrial Partners, and has served on the board of Redwire Corporation (NYSE: RDW) since October 2025 and on the board of …" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defense Tech | $61.9M | 52.9% | +1118.6% |
| Space | $55.2M | 47.1% | -2.6% |
| Total revenue | $117.1M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNITED STATES | $67.6M | 57.7% | +110.9% |
| Europe | $42.2M | 36.1% | +45.5% |
| Other | $7.3M | 6.2% | +933.4% |
| Total revenue | $117.1M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-05)

- "With $214.0 million of recorded revenue during the first half of 2026 and Backlog 3 providing significant visibility for the back half of the year, we are again pleased to reaffirm our 2026 revenue forecast." Webcast and Investor Call Management will conduct a conference call starting at 9:00 a.m."
- "While all financial projections, estimates and targets are necessarily speculative, Redwire believes that the preparation of prospective financial information involves increasingly higher levels of uncertainty the further out the projection, estimate 3 Book-to-Bill and Backlog are key business measures."
- "Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Readers are cautioned that the statements contained in this press release regarding expectations of our performance or other matters that may affect our business, results of operations, or financial condition are "forward-looking statements" as defined by the "safe harbor" provisions in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995."
- "(6) the inability to successfully integrate recently completed and future acquisitions, including the recent acquisition of Edge Autonomy, or successfully select, execute or integrate future acquisitions into the business and realize the anticipated benefits or do so within the expected timeframe;"

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.09 | $-0.12 | -22.9% | $126.6M | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.09 | $-0.11 | -18.2% | $135.8M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.45 | $-0.68 | -34.6% | $475.3M | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-0.32 | $-0.41 | -22.0% | $564.4M | 4 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-04): ±14.3%; earnings reaction alone ±9.9%; last 8 reports averaged ±13.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 68.7% | ±7.8% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 90.7% | ±14.3% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 86.7% | ±16.7% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 83.3% | ±18.5% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 84.4% | ±20.9% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 91.5% | ±24.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 78.5% | ±24.2% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 79.3% | ±29.6% |