# Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/REFI · data as of 2026-10-23 17:25 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. (REFI), nexqual.com/REFI" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 9.33 (-0.80% today) · US market open, as of October 23, 2026 at 17:25 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 9.4 · day 9.22–9.45 · 52w 8.76–13.49 · market cap $239M · NGM

## Key facts
- Valuation: P/E 8.1x (avg 7.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), net debt $36.1M.
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $1.3M; 3 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.20 on a 1–5 scale) (5 analysts), mean target USD 15.13 (range 10.5–20).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -15.9% vs S&P 500 +14.4%; 5Y +12.5% vs S&P 500 +77.0%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-10, EPS estimate USD 0.38, revenue estimate $14.4M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $48.9M | — | — | — | — |
| Net income | $32.3M | $38.7M | $37.0M | $36.0M | $29.4M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.82 | $2.11 | $1.88 | $1.68 | — |
| Net margin | 66.1% | — | — | — | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | — | $7.9M | $26.4M | $14.9M | — |
| Total debt | — | — | $49.1M | $49.3M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 8.1x · P/B 0.8x · Earnings yield 12.31% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 17.01% · Net debt $36.1M · EV $275M
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 7.3x, Dec 2024 8.2x, Dec 2023 7.7x.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
5 purchases, $1.3M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26…2026-08-27 | Mazarakis John | Executive Chairman | 47,711 | $509K | 10.67 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-21 | Mazarakis John | Executive Chairman | 145 | $2K | 10.67 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-18…2026-08-19 | Sack Peter | Co-Chief Executive Officer | 5,000 | $52K | 10.44 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-17 | Mazarakis John | Executive Chairman | 25,000 | $256K | 10.25 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-17 | Cappell Anthony | Co-Chief Executive Officer | 45,000 | $468K | 10.4 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.20 on a 1–5 scale), 5 analysts; mean target USD 15.13 (low 10.5, high 20).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Citizens | Target lowered | Market Outperform | $18 → $16 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-12-06) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -15.9% | +12.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.4% | +77.0% |
| Per year | -15.9% | +2.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 23.9% | 23.1% |
| Max drawdown | -23.1% (Dec 2025→Oct 2026) | -24.6% (Mar 2025→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (REIT - Mortgage)
KREF (KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I) USD 5.59 -2.36% · RWT (Redwood Trust, Inc.) USD 3.13 +0.16% · BRSP (BrightSpire Capital, Inc.) USD 3.61 -1.10% · TRTX (TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.) USD 6.21 -0.16% · FBRT (Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.) USD 6.16 -1.44% · ABR (Arbor Realty Trust) USD 2.82 -4.90%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/REFI · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in REFI's own 10-K filed 2026-03-12 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1867949/000119312526103027/refi-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Related party | Board of Vireo Growth | "Certain affiliated investment funds that are managed by entities under common control with our Manager, and for which Mr. Mazarakis can exercise significant influence, also hold material equity interests in Vireo, causin…" |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-11)

- "The foregoing outlook assumes that the Company continues to operate on a standalone basis and does not reflect the effects of the pending Merger, including any restrictions on dividends or other actions during the pendency of the Merger under the terms of the Merger Agreement."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.38 | $0.46 | -18.1% | $14.4M | 2 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.38 | $0.42 | -10.3% | $14.4M | 2 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.32 | $1.61 | -17.6% | $54.8M | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.81 | $1.81 | +0.0% | $59.4M | 3 |