# Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/RITM · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Rithm Capital Corp. (RITM), nexqual.com/RITM" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 8.68 (+1.52% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 8.55 · day 8.51–8.79 · 52w 8.31–12.15 · market cap $4.85B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $5.06B, net income $465M (9.2% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 10.4x (avg 7.5x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), net debt $34.4B.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $896K; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($896K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.64 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 12.75 (range 10–14).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -11.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +25.5% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-23, EPS estimate USD 0.5, revenue estimate $1.46B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.73B | $4.92B | $3.73B | $4.92B | $4.59B | $5.06B |
| Net income | $806M | $983M | $622M | $932M | $697M | $465M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.51 | $1.80 | $1.10 | $1.67 | $1.04 | — |
| Net margin | 21.6% | 20.0% | 16.7% | 18.9% | 15.2% | 9.2% |
| Revenue growth | +123.6% | +32.0% | -24.1% | +31.7% | -6.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.33B | $1.34B | $1.29B | $1.46B | $1.85B | — |
| Total debt | $29.8B | $22.0B | $27.0B | $32.6B | $35.4B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 10.4x · P/S 1.0x · EV/Sales 7.8x · P/B 0.6x · Earnings yield 9.60% · Net debt $34.4B · EV $39.2B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 8.5x, Dec 2024 5.8x, Dec 2023 8.3x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Hebard Peggy Hwan | Director | 14,520 | $148K | 15% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-20 | Saltzman David | Director | 80,922 | $748K | 64.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.64 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 12.75 (low 10, high 14).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | BTIG | Target lowered | Buy | $13 → $12 |
| 2026-08-21 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $14.5 → $14 |
| 2026-07-02 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Overweight | $14 → $12.5 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -11.0% | +25.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -11.1% | +4.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 24.9% | 26.7% |
| Max drawdown | -27.3% (Jan 2026→Mar 2026) | -33.7% (May 2022→Sep 2022) |

## Peers (REIT - Mortgage)
STWD (STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. S) USD 12.58 +3.71% · DX (Dynex Capital, Inc.) USD 11.05 -0.00% · AGNC (AGNC Investment Corp.) USD 8.89 +1.25% · ARR (ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.) USD 12.69 -0.94% · BXMT (Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc.) USD 10.58 +3.73% · NLY (Annaly Capital Management Inc.) USD 18.34 +1.83%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/RITM · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in RITM's own 10-K filed 2026-02-19 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1556593/000155659326000012/nrz-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Rithm Property Trust Inc. (RPT) | "(A)Represents equity investments in (i) certain real estate joint ventures and redevelopment projects, (ii) various real estate services operating companies, (iii) funds managed by the Company (iv) the Credit Risk Transf…" |
| Partner | Darwin Homes | "This includes our strategic partnership with Darwin Homes, Inc. ("Darwin") to run a property management platform, Adoor Property Management LLC ("APM")." |
| Partner | Adoor Property Management | "This includes our strategic partnership with Darwin Homes, Inc. ("Darwin") to run a property management platform, Adoor Property Management LLC ("APM")." |
| Partner | Upgrade | "Our portfolio consists of consumer loans purchased through a forward-flow agreement with Upgrade, Inc. (the "Upgrade loans" or "Upgrade"), consumer loans purchased from Goldman Sachs in June 2023 (the "Marcus loans" or "…" |
| Partner | Valon Technologies | "In January 2026, we entered into an agreement with Valon Technologies, Inc. ("Valon Technologies") to migrate all of Newrez's mortgage servicing operations to Valon Technologies' SaaS servicing platform." |
| Partner | Newrez | "In January 2026, we entered into an agreement with Valon Technologies, Inc. ("Valon Technologies") to migrate all of Newrez's mortgage servicing operations to Valon Technologies' SaaS servicing platform." |
| Partner | Paramount Group | "Aside from our Paramount business, we maintain certain commercial real estate projects through joint ventures." |
| Partner | Valon Mortgage | "In addition to our recently announced partnership with Valon, we also recently announced a partnership with HomeVision to develop an AI-powered mortgage underwriting platform." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Origination and Servicing | $704.2M | 54.9% | -23.9% |
| Commercial Real Estate | $186.0M | 14.5% | — |
| Asset management | $168.7M | 13.2% | +64.1% |
| Investment Portfolio | $117.0M | 9.1% | +4.0% |
| Residential Transitional Lending | $103.6M | 8.1% | +37.4% |
| Corporate Category | $2.7M | 0.2% | -13.9% |
| Total revenue | $1.28B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Servicing fee revenue, net and interest income from MSRs and MSR financing receivables | $614.6M | 47.9% | +6.9% |
| Interest income | $474.6M | 37.0% | -0.8% |
| Servicing revenue, net | $221.8M | 17.3% | -47.2% |
| Gain on originated residential mortgage loans, held-for-sale, net | $207.0M | 16.1% | +22.0% |
| Commercial real estate revenue | $182.1M | 14.2% | — |
| Asset management revenue | $142.2M | 11.1% | +49.7% |
| Other residential-related revenue | $54.6M | 4.3% | -3.6% |
| Property and maintenance | $47.5M | 3.7% | -4.0% |
| Other | $7.0M | 0.5% | -1.2% |
| Total revenue | $1.28B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 152.2% of total revenue.

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.50 | $0.52 | -4.3% | $1.46B | 10 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.70 | $0.72 | -3.2% | $1.72B | 10 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.31 | $2.26 | +2.2% | $5.83B | 10 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.35 | $2.35 | -0.1% | $6.27B | 11 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-23): ±7.2%; last 8 reports averaged ±3.3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 30.1% | ±7.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 25.6% | ±9.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 27.6% | ±12.2% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 26.1% | ±13.0% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 30.4% | ±19.7% |