# Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/RRR · data as of 2026-10-23 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Red Rock Resorts, Inc. (RRR), nexqual.com/RRR" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 49.61 (-1.63% on the day) · last close of Oct 23, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 50.43 · day 49.09–49.99 · 52w 47.5–68.99 · market cap $5.06B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $2.00B, net income $169M (8.4% margin), free cash flow $193M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 30.0x (avg 32.1x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 11.0x, net debt $3.44B.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income -$192M vs operating income $555M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈15.0x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 12.2% effective rate).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $3.0M; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($3.0M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.94 on a 1–5 scale) (18 analysts), mean target USD 72.22 (range 59–78).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -13.2% vs S&P 500 +13.4%; 5Y +15.4% vs S&P 500 +76.9%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.44, revenue estimate $478M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.62B | $1.66B | $1.72B | $1.94B | $2.01B | $2.00B |
| Operating income | $402M | $561M | $559M | $569M | $597M | $555M |
| Net income | $242M | $205M | $176M | $154M | $188M | $169M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.84 | $3.36 | $2.94 | $2.53 | $3.12 | — |
| Free cash flow | $549M | $214M | -$205M | $264M | $291M | $193M |
| Operating margin | 24.8% | 33.7% | 32.4% | 29.3% | 29.7% | 27.7% |
| Net margin | 14.9% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 8.4% |
| Revenue growth | +36.8% | +2.8% | +3.6% | +12.5% | +3.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $275M | $117M | $138M | $164M | $142M | — |
| Total debt | $2.85B | $2.98B | $3.33B | $3.41B | $3.40B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 30.0x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈15.0x · P/S 2.5x · EV/EBITDA 11.0x · EV/Sales 4.2x · P/FCF 26.2x · P/B 29.6x · FCF yield 3.81% · Earnings yield 3.34% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 2.39% · Buyback yield (TTM) 1.71% · Net debt $3.44B · EV $8.50B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 33.8x, Dec 2024 31.1x, Dec 2023 31.3x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Welch Jeffrey T | EVP and Chief Legal Officer | 9,000 | $503K | 2.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-12 | Nichols Kord | EVP & Chief Operating Officer | 9,791 | $617K | 7.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-07 | Kreeger Scott | President | 31,159 | $1.9M | 13.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.94 on a 1–5 scale), 18 analysts; mean target USD 72.22 (low 59, high 78).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $72 → $71 |
| 2026-10-19 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $61 → $59 |
| 2026-10-19 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $77 → $78 |
| 2026-10-12 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $78 → $69 |
| 2026-10-09 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $73 → $74 |
| 2026-10-07 | Macquarie | Target lowered | Outperform | $74 → $72 |
| 2026-09-02 | Wolfe Research | Initiated | Outperform | $73 |
| 2026-08-17 | Macquarie | Target raised | Outperform | $72 → $74 |
| 2026-08-05 | Macquarie | Maintained | Outperform | $72 |
| 2026-08-05 | Citizens | Target raised | Market Outperform | $69 → $71 |
| 2026-08-05 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $75 → $77 |
| 2026-08-05 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $72 → $73 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-24) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -13.2% | +15.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.4% | +76.9% |
| Per year | -13.3% | +2.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 34.8% | 34.3% |
| Max drawdown | -27.2% (Jun 2026→Sep 2026) | -39.4% (Dec 2021→Jul 2022) |

## Peers (Resorts & Casinos)
BYD (Boyd Gaming Corporation) USD 71.69 -0.80% · MTN (Vail Resorts, Inc.) USD 146.57 -1.12% · CZR (Caesars Entertainment, Inc.) USD 28.8 -0.93% · VAC (Marriott Vacations Worldwide Co) USD 109.31 -3.21% · MGM (MGM Resorts International) USD 28.06 -4.88% · WYNN (Wynn Resorts, Limited) USD 72.73 -3.19%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/RRR · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reportable Segment, Aggregation before Other Operating | $507.0M | 99.4% | -3.1% |
| — Las Vegas Operations (part of Reportable Segment, Aggregation before Other Operating) | $503.2M | 98.6% | -2.0% |
| — Native American Management (part of Reportable Segment, Aggregation before Other Operating) | $3.8M | 0.7% | -62.0% |
| Total revenue | $510.3M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casino | $338.3M | 66.3% | -1.9% |
| Food and beverage | $93.0M | 18.2% | -1.4% |
| Room | $46.7M | 9.1% | -8.8% |
| Other | $28.5M | 5.6% | +9.9% |
| Native American management and development fees | $3.8M | 0.7% | -62.0% |
| Total revenue | $510.3M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "All forward-looking statements in this document are made based on information available to the Company as of the date hereof, and the Company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statement."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.44 | $0.40 | +10.2% | $477.9M | 11 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.67 | $0.53 | +25.7% | $525.9M | 11 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.08 | $1.91 | +8.9% | $2.02B | 11 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.65 | $2.45 | +7.8% | $2.15B | 11 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±9.9%; last 8 reports averaged ±5.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 44.7% | ±9.9% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 40.6% | ±12.9% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 39.0% | ±15.0% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 37.3% | ±20.6% |