# Sunrun Inc. (RUN)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/RUN · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Sunrun Inc. (RUN), nexqual.com/RUN" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 7.7 (+1.05% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 7.62 · day 7.49–7.79 · 52w 6.78–21.95 · market cap $1.84B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $3.48B, net income $403M (11.6% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 4.6x (avg 10.8x at the last 1 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 115.8x, net debt $14.0B.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 23 Form 4 filings, $11.4M; 17 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($8.6M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 17 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.30 on a 1–5 scale) (20 analysts), mean target USD 14.38 (range 7–30).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -61.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -85.1% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.32, revenue estimate $806M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.61B | $2.32B | $2.26B | $2.04B | $2.96B | $3.48B |
| Operating income | -$666M | -$662M | -$1.98B | -$3.70B | -$126M | $92.3M |
| Net income | -$79.4M | $173M | -$1.60B | -$2.85B | $450M | $403M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.39 | $0.80 | -$7.41 | -$12.81 | $1.71 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$826M | -$867M | -$842M | -$768M | — | — |
| Operating margin | -41.4% | -28.5% | -87.6% | -181.3% | -4.3% | 2.7% |
| Net margin | -4.9% | 7.5% | -71.0% | -139.7% | 15.2% | 11.6% |
| Revenue growth | +74.6% | +44.2% | -2.7% | -9.8% | +45.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $850M | $953M | $988M | $947M | $1.24B | — |
| Total debt | $6.50B | $8.40B | $10.7B | $12.9B | $14.7B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 4.6x · P/S 0.5x · EV/EBITDA 115.8x · EV/Sales 4.6x · P/B 0.5x · Earnings yield 21.94% · Net debt $14.0B · EV $15.9B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 10.8x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
6 of 23 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-06 | Dickson Paul S. | Pres. & Chief Revenue Officer | 15,837 | $123K | 1.9% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Mar & Apr & Jun & Jul & Sep & Oct & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-10-06 | Powell Mary | Chief Executive Officer | 24,335 | $189K | 2.2% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-10-06 | Steele Jeanna | Chief Legal & People Officer | 10,042 | $78K | 2.2% | No | Routine (sold in Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-10-06 | Barak Maria | Chief Accounting Officer | 1,771 | $14K | 2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-10-06 | Abajian Danny | Chief Financial Officer | 16,734 | $130K | 2.2% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Mar & Apr & Jun & Jul & Sep & Oct & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-03 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | Director | 50,000 | $498K | 2.5% | Yes (adopted June 9, 2025) | Routine (sold in Feb & Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-07-09 | Barak Maria | Chief Accounting Officer | 3,278 | $40K | 3.5% | Yes (adopted August 14, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-06 | Steele Jeanna | Chief Legal & People Officer | 9,897 | $131K | 2.1% | No | Routine (sold in Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-07-06 | Powell Mary | Chief Executive Officer | 23,985 | $316K | 2.1% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-07-06 | Dickson Paul S. | Pres. & Chief Revenue Officer | 15,613 | $206K | 1.8% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Mar & Apr & Jun & Jul & Sep & Oct & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-06 | Barak Maria | Chief Accounting Officer | 1,747 | $23K | 1.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-06 | Abajian Danny | Chief Financial Officer | 16,495 | $218K | 2.1% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Mar & Apr & Jun & Jul & Sep & Oct & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-01 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | Director | 50,000 | $680K | 2.4% | Yes (adopted June 9, 2025) | Routine (sold in Feb & Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-06-11 | Lontoh Sonita | Director | 7,500 | $90K | 14.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-08 | Abajian Danny | Chief Financial Officer | 2,030 | $27K | 0.3% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Mar & Apr & Jun & Jul & Sep & Oct & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-01 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | Director | 50,000 | $796K | 2.4% | Yes (adopted June 9, 2025) | Routine (sold in Feb & Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-01 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | Director | 50,000 | $645K | 2.3% | Yes (adopted June 9, 2025) | Routine (sold in Feb & Mar & Jun & Sep & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-04-09 | Barak Maria | Chief Accounting Officer | 8,039 | $110K | 9.9% | Yes (adopted August 14, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-04-06 | Barak Maria | Chief Accounting Officer | 4,641 | $61K | 5.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-04-06 | Abajian Danny | Chief Financial Officer | 132,953 | $1.8M | 16.7% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Mar & Apr & Jun & Jul & Sep & Oct & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.30 on a 1–5 scale), 20 analysts; mean target USD 14.38 (low 7, high 30).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $14 → $12 |
| 2026-10-14 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $15 → $10 |
| 2026-10-14 | Susquehanna | Target lowered | Positive | $15 → $13 |
| 2026-10-09 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $16 → $14 |
| 2026-10-09 | Barclays | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $14 → $12 |
| 2026-10-08 | Goldman Sachs | Target lowered | Buy | $13 → $11 |
| 2026-09-21 | Goldman Sachs | Target lowered | Buy | $15 → $13 |
| 2026-08-17 | GLJ Research | Reiterated | Sell | $4.63 |
| 2026-08-14 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $22 → $17 |
| 2026-08-07 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $20 → $16 |
| 2026-08-07 | Susquehanna | Target lowered | Positive | $18 → $15 |
| 2026-08-06 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $21 → $16 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -61.1% | -85.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -61.3% | -31.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 82.0% | 89.1% |
| Max drawdown | -67.8% (Jan 2026→Oct 2026) | -89.9% (Nov 2021→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Solar)
SEDG (SolarEdge Technologies, Inc.) USD 32.94 -0.75% · SHLS (Shoals Technologies Group, Inc.) USD 7.73 -2.83% · ENPH (Enphase Energy, Inc.) USD 31.35 -2.00% · CSIQ (Canadian Solar Inc.) USD 9.22 -6.21% · ARRY (Array Technologies, Inc.) USD 3.3 -3.23% · JKS (JinkoSolar Holding Company Limi) USD 8.14 +0.12%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/RUN · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in RUN's own 10-K filed 2026-02-26 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1469367/000162828026012289/run-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | FAIR ISAAC CORP (FICO) | "As of December 31, 2025, the average FICO score of our customers under a Customer Agreement with a monthly payment schedule remained at or above 740, which is generally categorized as a "Very Good" credit profile by the …" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Customer agreements and incentives | $543.7M | 62.5% | +18.7% |
| — Customer agreements (part of Customer agreements and incentives) | $507.0M | 58.3% | +17.0% |
| — Incentives (part of Customer agreements and incentives) | $36.8M | 4.2% | +49.7% |
| Energy systems and product sales | $326.3M | 37.5% | +193.0% |
| — Energy systems (part of Energy systems and product sales) | $291.0M | 33.4% | +668.3% |
| — Products (part of Energy systems and product sales) | $35.3M | 4.1% | -52.0% |
| Total revenue | $870.0M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-05)

- "For the full-year 2026, Aggregate Subscriber Value is now expected to be in a range of $4.6 billion to $4.9 billion, compared to the company's prior guidance of $4.8 billion to $5.2 billion."
- "Cash Generation 1, 2 is now expected to be in a range of $200 million to $375 million for the full-year 2026, excluding potential investment related to equipment safe harboring, compared to the company's prior guidance of $250 million to $450 million."
- "Conference Call Information Sunrun is hosting a conference call for analysts and investors to discuss its second quarter 2026 results and business outlook at 1:30 p.m."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.32 | $0.22 | +46.0% | $805.7M | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.39 | $0.07 | +446.4% | $837.0M | 5 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.40 | $1.21 | +15.6% | $3.10B | 9 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.52 | $1.02 | -49.0% | $3.21B | 9 |