# Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/RWT · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Redwood Trust, Inc. (RWT), nexqual.com/RWT" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 3.12 (+3.65% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 3.01 · day 2.98–3.19 · 52w 2.88–6.97 · market cap $392M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Valuation: P/E 68.6x (avg 16.0x at the last 1 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $969K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.89 on a 1–5 scale) (9 analysts), mean target USD 5.09 (range 3.75–6.5).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -36.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -59.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.23, revenue estimate $36.8M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $542M | — | $166M | — | — | — |
| Net income | $320M | -$164M | -$2.3M | $54.0M | -$70.0M | $5.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.37 | -$1.43 | -$0.11 | $0.32 | -$0.63 | — |
| Net margin | 59.0% | — | -1.4% | — | — | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $450M | $259M | $293M | $245M | $256M | — |
| Total debt | $3.82B | $3.76B | $3.24B | — | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 68.6x · P/B 0.4x · Earnings yield 1.46% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 24.53% · Buyback yield (TTM) 11.59%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2024 16.0x.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
6 purchases, $969K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Macomber Sasha G. | Chief Human Resource Officer | 4,895 | $20K | 4.08 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-21 | Stone Andrew P | Chief Legal Officer | 5,000 | $21K | 4.12 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-09-16 | Robinson Dashiell I | President | 63,211 | $252K | 3.98 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-15 | Kubicek Greg H | Director | 50,000 | $193K | 3.85 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-15 | Abate Christopher J | Chief Executive Officer | 100,000 | $384K | 3.84 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-15 | Carillo Brooke | Chief Financial Officer | 26,065 | $100K | 3.85 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.89 on a 1–5 scale), 9 analysts; mean target USD 5.09 (low 3.75, high 6.5).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Citizens | Target lowered | Market Outperform | $6 → $4 |
| 2026-10-09 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Neutral | $5.25 → $3.75 |
| 2026-10-07 | BTIG | Target lowered | Buy | $6 → $5 |
| 2026-09-14 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Outperform | $5.5 → $4.75 |
| 2026-08-21 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $7 → $6.5 |
| 2026-07-29 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $7 → $6 |
| 2026-07-29 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target lowered | Outperform | $6 → $5.5 |
| 2026-07-28 | Jones Trading | Target lowered | Buy | $6.25 → $6 |
| 2026-07-28 | BTIG | Reiterated | Buy | $6 |
| 2026-07-17 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $6.5 → $6 |
| 2026-07-09 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Upgrade | Market Perform → Outperform | $7 → $6 |
| 2026-07-08 | Citizens | Target lowered | Market Outperform | $7 → $6 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -36.0% | -59.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -36.1% | -16.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 42.6% | 36.8% |
| Max drawdown | -51.0% (Feb 2026→Oct 2026) | -61.2% (Nov 2021→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (REIT - Mortgage)
KREF (KKR Real Estate Finance Trust I) USD 5.72 +4.38% · BRSP (BrightSpire Capital, Inc.) USD 3.65 +0.83% · TRTX (TPG RE Finance Trust, Inc.) USD 6.22 +6.32% · FBRT (Franklin BSP Realty Trust, Inc.) USD 6.25 +3.82% · ABR (Arbor Realty Trust) USD 2.96 +2.07% · IVR (INVESCO MORTGAGE CAPITAL INC) USD 5.52 +1.85%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/RWT · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.23 | $0.25 | -9.9% | $36.8M | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.22 | $0.24 | -7.5% | $38.2M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.99 | $0.97 | +2.2% | $141.5M | 5 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.01 | $1.04 | -3.2% | $158.3M | 5 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±16.0%; last 8 reports averaged ±7.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 67.7% | ±16.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 61.4% | ±24.0% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 54.2% | ±29.6% |