# RXO, Inc. (RXO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/RXO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, RXO, Inc. (RXO), nexqual.com/RXO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 28.92 (+0.49% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 28.78 · day 28.6–29.03 · 52w 10.43–29.9 · market cap $4.77B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $6.09B, net income -$105M (-1.7% margin), free cash flow -$76.0M (SEC filings).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold RXO (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +67.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +34.5% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.08, revenue estimate $1.82B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.69B | $4.80B | $3.93B | $4.55B | $5.74B | $6.09B |
| Operating income | $192M | $123M | $39.0M | -$56.0M | -$79.0M | -$76.0M |
| Net income | $150M | $92.0M | $4.0M | -$290M | -$100M | -$105M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.30 | $0.79 | $0.03 | -$2.17 | -$0.59 | — |
| Free cash flow | $116M | $253M | $25.0M | -$57.0M | -$8.0M | -$76.0M |
| Operating margin | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.0% | -1.2% | -1.4% | -1.2% |
| Net margin | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.1% | -6.4% | -1.7% | -1.7% |
| Revenue growth | +39.7% | +2.3% | -18.1% | +15.9% | +26.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $29.0M | $98.0M | $5.0M | $35.0M | $17.0M | — |
| Total debt | $0K | $455M | $359M | $368M | $404M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 0.8x · EV/EBITDA 175.0x · EV/Sales 0.9x · P/B 3.2x · FCF yield -1.59% · Earnings yield -2.20% · Net debt $480M · EV $5.25B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2023 694.6x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold RXO. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Hawkins | Southeastern Asset Management | 0.06% | $1.2M | Unchanged |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.01% | $1.0M | New position |

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $28 → $30 |
| 2026-10-06 | Citigroup | Target raised | Neutral | $23 → $30 |
| 2026-10-06 | TD Cowen | Upgrade | Sell → Hold | $17.5 → $30.25 |
| 2026-10-06 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $23 → $30 |
| 2026-10-06 | JP Morgan | Upgrade | Underweight → Neutral | $22 → $30 |
| 2026-10-06 | Jefferies | Downgrade | Buy → Hold | $30 |
| 2026-09-23 | Susquehanna | Upgrade | Negative → Neutral | $20 → $19 |
| 2026-09-09 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $22 → $23 |
| 2026-08-07 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $26 → $23 |
| 2026-08-07 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Sell | $19 → $17.5 |
| 2026-08-07 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Neutral | $30 → $23 |
| 2026-08-07 | Citizens | Upgrade | Market Perform → Market Outperform | $30 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2022-10-24) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +67.8% | +34.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +68.2% | +7.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 75.6% | 59.4% |
| Max drawdown | -40.9% (Oct 2025→Nov 2025) | -65.2% (Jul 2024→Nov 2025) |

## Peers (Trucking)
SNDR (Schneider National, Inc.) USD 31.12 +0.65% · ARCB (ArcBest Corporation) USD 130.3 -0.39% · SAIA (Saia, Inc.) USD 344.5 +1.67% · TFII (TFI International Inc.) USD 115 +2.10% · KNX (Knight-Swift Transportation Hol) USD 62.52 -1.08% · WERN (Werner Enterprises, Inc.) USD 29.18 -2.34%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/RXO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Truck brokerage | $1.35B | 76.0% | +31.6% |
| Last mile | $344.0M | 19.4% | +9.2% |
| Managed transportation | $144.0M | 8.1% | +1.4% |
| Total revenue | $1.77B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 103.6% of total revenue.

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 11.4% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-09).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "RXO expects third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA to be between $35 million and $45 million."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.07 | $0.04 | +102.6% | $1.82B | 19 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.09 | $0.08 | +14.1% | $1.83B | 18 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.15 | $0.07 | +111.1% | $6.85B | 19 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.65 | $0.53 | +22.2% | $7.55B | 20 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±7.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±9.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 31.4% | ±7.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 35.1% | ±12.3% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 33.1% | ±21.9% |
| 2027-02-19 | 119 | 37.9% | ±18.3% |
| 2027-05-21 | 210 | 22.0% | ±12.1% |