# Safehold Inc. (SAFE)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/SAFE · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Safehold Inc. (SAFE), nexqual.com/SAFE" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 11.33 (+6.29% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 10.66 · day 10.67–11.35 · 52w 10.61–17.45 · market cap $802M · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $420M, net income $116M (27.7% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 6.9x (avg 10.6x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 48.0x, net debt $4.64B.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $138K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($138K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.91 on a 1–5 scale) (11 analysts), mean target USD 15.89 (range 13–21).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -23.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -88.6% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.43, revenue estimate $117M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $187M | $270M | $353M | $366M | $386M | $420M |
| Gross profit | $184M | $267M | $348M | $361M | $381M | — |
| Operating income | $65.5M | $136M | -$77.1M | $87.1M | $101M | $105M |
| Net income | $73.1M | $135M | -$55.0M | $106M | $114M | $116M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.32 | $2.17 | -$0.82 | $1.48 | $1.59 | — |
| Gross margin | 98.6% | 98.8% | 98.7% | 98.8% | 98.8% | — |
| Operating margin | 35.0% | 50.2% | -21.9% | 23.8% | 26.2% | 25.1% |
| Net margin | 39.1% | 50.1% | -15.6% | 28.9% | 29.7% | 27.7% |
| Revenue growth | -42.3% | +44.5% | +30.4% | +3.7% | +5.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $29.6M | $20.1M | $18.8M | $8.3M | $21.7M | — |
| Total debt | $2.57B | $3.52B | $4.05B | $4.32B | $4.59B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 6.9x · P/S 1.9x · EV/EBITDA 48.0x · EV/Sales 13.0x · P/B 0.3x · Earnings yield 14.48% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 6.38% · Net debt $4.64B · EV $5.44B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 8.6x, Dec 2024 12.5x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Josephs Robin | Director | 9,500 | $138K | 5.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.91 on a 1–5 scale), 11 analysts; mean target USD 15.89 (low 13, high 21).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Citizens | Downgrade | Market Outperform → Market Perform |  |
| 2026-10-09 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Sector Perform | $16 → $13 |
| 2026-09-28 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Hold | $17 → $13 |
| 2026-09-24 | JP Morgan | Downgrade | Neutral → Underweight | $14 |
| 2026-09-17 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Neutral | $16 → $14 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -23.2% | -88.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -23.2% | -35.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 34.7% | 43.8% |
| Max drawdown | -37.0% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) | -89.5% (Nov 2021→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (REIT - Diversified)
CTO (CTO Realty Growth, Inc.) USD 20.25 +3.42% · JBGS (JBG SMITH Properties) USD 11.39 +6.35% · AHRT (AH Realty Trust, Inc.) USD 6.14 +3.54% · GOOD (Gladstone Commercial Corporatio) USD 12 +3.18% · FVR (FrontView REIT, Inc.) USD 17.76 +3.14% · OLP (One Liberty Properties, Inc.) USD 22.37 +3.14%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/SAFE · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)


Other companies that name SAFE in their own reports (relationship from SAFE's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Star Holdings (STHO) | 10-K 2026-02-17 | "In connection with the Spin-Off, the Company entered into the Separation and Distribution Agreement, a management agreement with the Manager (the "Management Agreement"), a governance agreement with S…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ground Leases | $98.7M | 86.1% | — |
| Hotel Operations | $15.9M | 13.9% | — |
| Total revenue | $114.6M | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.43 | $0.45 | -4.5% | $117.4M | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.37 | $0.38 | -3.4% | $112.4M | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.62 | $1.65 | -1.6% | $453.4M | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.67 | $1.73 | -3.6% | $474.1M | 7 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±11.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±4.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 81.7% | ±11.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 52.0% | ±23.0% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 44.9% | ±19.6% |