# Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/SAFT · data as of 2026-10-28 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (SAFT), nexqual.com/SAFT" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 103.95 (-0.30% on the day) · last close of Oct 28, 2026; US market after hours, not a live price. Prev close 104.26 · day 103.95–104.35 · 52w 67.04–104.35 · market cap $1.53B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.29B, net income $68.6M (5.3% margin), free cash flow $176M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 22.2x (avg 29.3x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $135M; 5 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($135M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: None.
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +61.6% vs S&P 500 +13.6%; 5Y +66.0% vs S&P 500 +79.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-02, EPS estimate USD —, revenue estimate $0K.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $885M | $798M | $931M | $1.12B | $1.26B | $1.29B |
| Net income | $131M | $46.6M | $18.9M | $70.7M | $99.3M | $68.6M |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.80 | $3.15 | $1.28 | $4.78 | $6.70 | — |
| Free cash flow | $133M | $42.2M | $50.3M | $124M | $192M | $176M |
| Net margin | 14.8% | 5.8% | 2.0% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.3% |
| Revenue growth | +4.6% | -9.9% | +16.7% | +20.3% | +12.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $63.6M | $25.3M | $38.2M | — | — | — |
| Total debt | — | — | $30.0M | — | $50.0M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 22.2x · P/S 1.2x · P/FCF 8.7x · P/B 1.7x · FCF yield 11.51% · Earnings yield 4.50% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 3.54%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 11.6x, Dec 2024 17.1x, Dec 2023 59.2x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 5 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Srb Corp |  | 1,240,352 | $128M | 72.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-07-24 | Srb Corp |  | 38,835 | $4.0M | 2.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-07-17 | Srb Corp |  | 5,159 | $392K | 0.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-07-13 | Srb Corp |  | 34,272 | $2.6M | 1.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
| 2026-07-09 | Srb Corp |  | 2,650 | $203K | 0.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024 or 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus None.

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +61.6% | +66.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.6% | +79.8% |
| Per year | +61.9% | +10.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 38.7% | 26.1% |
| Max drawdown | -13.1% (Feb 2026→Jun 2026) | -30.0% (Jun 2022→Sep 2023) |

## Peers (Insurance - Property & Casualty)
PRCH (Porch Group, Inc.) USD 16.3 -7.70% · HCI (HCI Group, Inc.) USD 195.24 -2.36% · SKWD (Skyward Specialty Insurance Gro) USD 57.96 -1.08% · SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc.) USD 27.19 -4.23% · LMND (Lemonade, Inc.) USD 45.36 -1.20% · PLMR (Palomar Holdings, Inc.) USD 136.44 +1.78%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/SAFT · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter | — | — | — | $0 | — |
| Next quarter (ends 2018-06-30) | — | — | — | $0 | — |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2018-12-31) | — | — | — | $0 | — |
| Next fiscal year | — | — | — | $0 | — |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-02): ±1.7%; last 8 reports averaged ±3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 23 | 11.0% | ±1.7% |
| 2027-02-19 | 114 | 2.3% | ±1.8% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | — | — | — | — | +0.2% |
| May 6, 2026 | — | — | — | — | -2.0% |
| Feb 25, 2026 | — | — | — | — | +0.4% |
| Nov 3, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +2.4% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +1.4% |
| May 7, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +0.7% |
| Feb 25, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -3.9% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | — | — | — | — | +12.8% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Schedule 13G | Glazer Capital, LLC, Paul J. Glazer: 5.1% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172052/000107680926000112/0001076809-26-000112-index.htm |
| 2026-09-15 | DEFA14A | Additional proxy material | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172052/000110465926107964/0001104659-26-107964-index.htm |
| 2026-09-15 | 8-K | Other material event — “As previously announced, on July 23, 2026, Safety Insurance Group, Inc., a Delaware corporation (" Safety "), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (as it may be amended, supplemented or modified from time to time, the " Merger Agreement ") with MAPFRE U.S.A. Corp., a Massachusetts corporation (" Mapfre "), and Splash Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly owned direct subsidiary of Mapfre (" Merger Subsidiary "), pursuant to which Merger Subsidiary will be merged with and into Safety (the "…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172052/000110465926107960/0001104659-26-107960-index.htm |
| 2026-08-07 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172052/000117205226000023/0001172052-26-000023-index.htm |
| 2026-08-05 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172052/000117205226000021/0001172052-26-000021-index.htm |
| 2026-07-29 | Schedule 13G/A | SRB Corporation, The Plymouth Rock Company Incorporated: 1.8% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172052/000090445426000427/0000904454-26-000427-index.htm |
| 2026-07-24 | DEFA14A | Additional proxy material | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172052/000110465926086493/0001104659-26-086493-index.htm |
| 2026-07-24 | 8-K | Entered a material agreement — “Agreement and Plan of Merger On July 23, 2026, Safety Insurance Group, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the " Company "), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the " Merger Agreement ") with MAPFRE U.S.A. Corp., a Massachusetts corporation (" Parent "), and Splash Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation and wholly-owned direct subsidiary of Parent (" Merger Subsidiary "), pursuant to which Merger Subsidiary will merge with and into the Company (the " Merger "), with the Company surviving the Merger as a…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172052/000110465926086488/0001104659-26-086488-index.htm |
| 2026-07-23 | DEFA14A | Additional proxy material | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172052/000110465926086354/0001104659-26-086354-index.htm |
| 2026-07-23 | DEFA14A | Additional proxy material | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172052/000110465926086353/0001104659-26-086353-index.htm |
| 2026-07-23 | DEFA14A | Additional proxy material | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172052/000110465926086352/0001104659-26-086352-index.htm |
| 2026-07-23 | DEFA14A | Additional proxy material | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172052/000110465926086335/0001104659-26-086335-index.htm |
| 2026-07-23 | 8-K | Regulation FD disclosure | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1172052/000110465926086331/0001104659-26-086331-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.