# Saia, Inc. (SAIA)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/SAIA · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Saia, Inc. (SAIA), nexqual.com/SAIA" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 344.5 (+1.67% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 338.84 · day 335.81–347.49 · 52w 249.32–494.71 · market cap $9.17B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $3.39B, net income $278M (8.2% margin), free cash flow $255M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 33.0x (avg 33.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 14.6x, net debt $16.0M.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $137K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($137K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.24 on a 1–5 scale) (21 analysts), mean target USD 420.29 (range 285–510).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +18.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +26.7% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-29, EPS estimate USD 3.3, revenue estimate $967M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.29B | $2.79B | $2.88B | $3.21B | $3.23B | $3.39B |
| Operating income | $335M | $470M | $460M | $482M | $352M | $375M |
| Net income | $253M | $357M | $355M | $362M | $255M | $278M |
| EPS (diluted) | $9.48 | $13.40 | $13.26 | $13.51 | $9.52 | — |
| Free cash flow | $96.8M | $106M | $138M | -$460M | $27.3M | $255M |
| Operating margin | 14.6% | 16.9% | 16.0% | 15.0% | 10.9% | 11.0% |
| Net margin | 11.1% | 12.8% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% |
| Revenue growth | +25.6% | +22.0% | +3.2% | +11.4% | +0.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $107M | $187M | $296M | $19.5M | $19.7M | — |
| Total debt | $0K | $0K | $0K | $194M | $163M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 33.0x · P/S 2.7x · EV/EBITDA 14.6x · EV/Sales 2.7x · P/FCF 35.9x · P/B 3.4x · FCF yield 2.78% · Earnings yield 3.03% · Net debt $16.0M · EV $9.18B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 34.3x, Dec 2024 33.7x, Dec 2023 33.1x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Norwood Anthony R | EVP & CHRO | 292 | $137K | 5.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.24 on a 1–5 scale), 21 analysts; mean target USD 420.29 (low 285, high 510).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | StoneX | Target lowered | Buy | $500 → $480 |
| 2026-10-08 | Stifel | Target lowered | Buy | $438 → $423 |
| 2026-10-07 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $417 → $429 |
| 2026-10-05 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $490 → $463 |
| 2026-10-02 | Susquehanna | Target lowered | Neutral | $412 → $360 |
| 2026-09-10 | Bernstein | Initiated | Outperform | $439 |
| 2026-09-08 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $423 → $417 |
| 2026-09-04 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $498 → $490 |
| 2026-08-04 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $488 → $423 |
| 2026-07-31 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $527 → $504 |
| 2026-07-31 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $490 → $498 |
| 2026-07-31 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Underweight | $295 → $285 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +18.0% | +26.7% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +18.1% | +4.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 46.1% | 48.8% |
| Max drawdown | -33.4% (Jun 2026→Sep 2026) | -58.6% (Apr 2024→Apr 2025) |

## Peers (Trucking)
TFII (TFI International Inc.) USD 115 +2.10% · KNX (Knight-Swift Transportation Hol) USD 62.52 -1.08% · SNDR (Schneider National, Inc.) USD 31.12 +0.65% · RXO (RXO, Inc.) USD 28.92 +0.49% · XPO (XPO, Inc.) USD 188.75 +0.15% · ARCB (ArcBest Corporation) USD 130.3 -0.39%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/SAIA · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-30)

- "In 2026, we anticipate that net capital expenditures will be approximately $350 million to $400 million, subject to ongoing evaluation of market conditions."
- "(37) evolving stakeholder expectations regarding environmental and social issues;"

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $3.30 | $3.35 | -1.6% | $967.1M | 19 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.71 | $2.83 | -4.3% | $912.5M | 16 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $11.37 | $11.44 | -0.6% | $3.64B | 20 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $14.25 | $14.55 | -2.1% | $3.93B | 20 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-29): ±13.0%; last 8 reports averaged ±10%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 58.1% | ±13.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 51.9% | ±16.3% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 48.4% | ±24.4% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 47.5% | ±30.2% |