# Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/SERV · data as of 2026-10-23 13:31 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV), nexqual.com/SERV" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 2.82 (-2.08% today) · US market open, as of October 23, 2026 at 13:31 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 2.88 · day 2.83–2.87 · 52w 2.8–16.08 · market cap $245M · NCM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $7.8M, net income -$180M (-2315.8% margin), free cash flow -$170M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 14 Form 4 filings, $1.4M; 13 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.3M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -79.5% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -88.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD -0.54, revenue estimate $1.7M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | $108K | $208K | $1.8M | $2.7M | $7.8M |
| Gross profit | — | -$1.0M | -$1.5M | -$75K | -$15.4M | — |
| Operating income | -$55K | -$21.0M | -$20.7M | -$38.3M | -$113M | -$193M |
| Net income | -$55K | -$21.9M | -$24.8M | -$39.2M | -$101M | -$180M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.01 | -$3.17 | -$1.75 | -$1.07 | -$1.63 | — |
| Free cash flow | — | -$25.0M | -$16.0M | -$31.8M | -$118M | -$170M |
| Gross margin | — | -965.1% | -733.7% | -4.1% | -580.2% | — |
| Operating margin | — | -19433.5% | -9987.0% | -2111.9% | -4253.8% | -2476.8% |
| Net margin | — | -20270.2% | -11955.8% | -2161.7% | -3823.5% | -2315.8% |
| Revenue growth | — | — | +92.5% | +773.5% | +46.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $8.0M | $2.7M | $7K | $123M | $233M | — |
| Total debt | — | $1.2M | $231K | $0K | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 31.4x · P/B 0.7x · FCF yield -69.45% · Earnings yield -73.79%

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 14 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17…2026-08-19 | Read Brian | Chief Financial Officer | 41,069 | $207K | 13% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-18 | Parang Touraj | President & COO | 37,993 | $173K | 2.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-18 | Kashani Ali | Chief Executive Officer | 45,158 | $206K | 1.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-16 | Goldberg David Michael | Director | 10,600 | $76K | 16.1% | Yes (adopted September 29, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-10 | Read Brian | Chief Financial Officer | 1,496 | $11K | 0.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-10 | Parang Touraj | President & COO | 4,219 | $31K | 0.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-10 | Kashani Ali | Chief Executive Officer | 15,885 | $115K | 0.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-06…2026-05-07 | Read Brian | Chief Financial Officer | 2,991 | $28K | 0.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-06…2026-05-07 | Parang Touraj | President & COO | 9,881 | $92K | 0.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-06…2026-05-07 | Kashani Ali | Chief Executive Officer | 26,397 | $245K | 0.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-01 | Read Brian | Chief Financial Officer | 1,179 | $11K | 0.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-04-08 | Read Brian | Chief Financial Officer | 200 | $2K | 0.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-04-08 | Parang Touraj | President & COO | 3,861 | $33K | 0.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-04-08 | Kashani Ali | Chief Executive Officer | 14,541 | $125K | 0.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Freedom Broker | Upgrade | Hold → Buy | $18 → $8 |
| 2026-08-10 | Guggenheim | Target lowered | Buy | $13 → $7 |
| 2026-08-07 | Oppenheimer | Target lowered | Outperform | $20 → $7 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2024-03-04) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -79.5% | -88.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -79.5% | -55.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 78.5% | 152.9% |
| Max drawdown | -81.7% (Jan 2026→Oct 2026) | -91.8% (Mar 2024→Jun 2024) |

## Peers (Integrated Freight & Logistics)
RLGT (Radiant Logistics, Inc.) USD 8.7 -0.80% · FWRD (Forward Air Corporation) USD 15.41 -1.34% · CYRX (CryoPort, Inc.) USD 17.74 -0.50% · HUBG (Hub Group, Inc.) USD 26.05 -1.61% · PBI (Pitney Bowes Inc.) USD 17.45 -0.51% · GXO (GXO Logistics, Inc.) USD 48.48 -0.89%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/SERV · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in SERV's own 10-K filed 2026-03-12 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1832483/000183248326000010/patr-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | NVIDIA (NVDA) | "Key suppliers of single and limited source components include NVIDIA Corporation, Ouster, Inc., and other vendors providing cameras, ultrasonic sensors, electronic motors, and modems." |
| Supplier | Ouster, Inc. (OUST) | "Key suppliers of single and limited source components include NVIDIA Corporation, Ouster, Inc., and other vendors providing cameras, ultrasonic sensors, electronic motors, and modems." |
| Customer | Uber (UBER) | "We maintain platform-level integrations with food delivery platforms, such as Uber Eats and DoorDash, that enable our robots to transmit real-time presence and status information and to receive delivery requests associat…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleet services | $2.3M | 71.2% | +598.5% |
| Software services | $933,000 | 28.8% | +199.0% |
| Total revenue | $3.2M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 22%, 11% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-06).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-05)

- "Guidance $910M 3.5x growth YoY."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.54 | $-0.49 | +10.2% | $1.7M | 1 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.48 | $-0.48 | +0.7% | $1.8M | 1 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-2.11 | $-1.95 | +8.4% | $9.7M | 1 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-1.75 | $-1.54 | +14.0% | $33.5M | 2 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 75.3% | ±9.8% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 94.0% | ±15.8% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 87.5% | ±17.7% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 87.1% | ±20.1% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 90.3% | ±23.0% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 88.2% | ±24.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 82.2% | ±26.3% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 83.0% | ±32.0% |