# Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/SFD · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Smithfield Foods, Inc. (SFD), nexqual.com/SFD" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 18.81 (+2.79% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 18.3 · day 18.39–18.84 · 52w 18.17–29.81 · market cap $7.41B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 28, 2026): revenue $15.5B, net income $1.06B (6.8% margin), free cash flow $807M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 7.0x (avg 8.9x at the last 1 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 4.5x, net debt $52.0M.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $4.4M; 3 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($4.4M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.29 on a 1–5 scale) (7 analysts), mean target USD 24.93 (range 21–29).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -8.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -5.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-27, EPS estimate USD 0.26, revenue estimate $3.66B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2015 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | — | $16.2B | $14.6B | $14.1B | $15.5B | $15.5B |
| Gross profit | $1.76B | $1.50B | $889M | $1.90B | $2.09B | — |
| Operating income | $794M | $1.12B | -$56.0M | $1.12B | $1.29B | $1.33B |
| Net income | $452M | $870M | $17.0M | $953M | $987M | $1.06B |
| EPS (diluted) | — | $2.29 | $0.05 | $2.51 | $2.51 | — |
| Free cash flow | — | $183M | $335M | $566M | $718M | $807M |
| Gross margin | — | 9.2% | 6.1% | 13.4% | 13.5% | — |
| Operating margin | — | 6.9% | -0.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% |
| Net margin | — | 5.4% | 0.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% |
| Revenue growth | — | — | -9.6% | -3.4% | +9.8% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $705M | $547M | $687M | $943M | $1.54B | — |
| Total debt | $2.26B | — | $1.99B | $1.98B | $1.99B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 28, 2026)
P/E 7.0x · P/S 0.5x · EV/EBITDA 4.5x · EV/Sales 0.5x · P/FCF 9.2x · P/B 1.1x · FCF yield 10.90% · Earnings yield 14.30% · Net debt $52.0M · EV $7.46B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 8.9x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 3 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | France Steven | President, Packaged Meats | 82,825 | $2.2M | 36.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-12 | Starling Raymond A | Director | 3,960 | $106K | 24.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-09 | Hall Mark L. | Chief Financial Officer | 78,579 | $2.1M | 36.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.29 on a 1–5 scale), 7 analysts; mean target USD 24.93 (low 21, high 29).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Stephens & Co. | Initiated | Equal-Weight | $22 |
| 2026-09-09 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $31 → $29 |
| 2026-08-12 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $32 → $31 |
| 2026-07-02 | B of A Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $33 → $32 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2025-01-27) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -8.8% | -5.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -8.8% | -2.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 25.7% | 29.1% |
| Max drawdown | -36.8% (Apr 2026→Oct 2026) | -34.9% (Apr 2026→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Packaged Foods)
LW (Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.) USD 55.18 +3.90% · CAG (ConAgra Brands, Inc.) USD 15.07 +7.34% · PPC (Pilgrim's Pride Corporation) USD 28.09 +1.23% · CPB (The Campbell's Company) USD 21.26 +8.69% · DAR (Darling Ingredients Inc.) USD 55.64 -5.84% · INGR (Ingredion Incorporated) USD 97.18 +1.57%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/SFD · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in SFD's own 10-K filed 2026-03-24 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/91388/000009138826000014/smf-20251228.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Murphy Family Farms | "Murphy Family Farms is now a hog supplier to us and supplies approximately 3.2 million hogs annually." |
| Supplier | VisionAg Hog Production | "VisionAg is now a hog supplier to us and supplies approximately 600,000 hogs annually." |
| Customer | Walmart (WMT) | "Walmart Inc., including its subsidiary Sam's West, Inc. (collectively "Walmart"), is a customer of our Packaged Meats and Fresh Pork segments and accounted for approximately 15%, 16% and 15% of our consolidated sales in …" |
| Partner | Famous | "In December 2012, we entered into a license agreement with Nathan's Famous that commenced in March of 2014 and expires in March 2032." |
| Partner | Align RNG | "(5)In 2019, we announced that we planned to contribute up to $250 million to our joint venture, Align RNG, LLC ("Align") through 2028 to fund various projects as approved by Align's board from time to time." |
| Partner | West | "In addition to the charges noted in the table above, the West Coast Exit and Hog Production Reform impacted our biogas joint ventures for which we recognized additional costs and losses as follows:" |
| Partner | Monarch Bio Energy | "•In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2023, we incurred $14 million in costs associated with biogas assets owned by our joint venture, Monarch Bio Energy, LLC ("Monarch"), in connection with the farms in" |

Other companies that name SFD in their own reports (relationship from SFD's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | NATHANS FAMOUS, INC. (NATH) | 10-K 2026-06-09 | "As a result of our partnership with Smithfield Foods, we expect Nathan's Famous products to continue penetrating the grocery, mass merchandising and club channels by expanding points of distribution i…" |
| partner | DOMINION ENERGY, INC (D) | 10-K 2026-02-23 | "Align RNG—In November 2018, Dominion Energy announced the formation of Align RNG, an equal partnership with Smithfield Foods, Inc. to capture methane from swine farms across various states and convert…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-28)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packaged Meats | $2.02B | 54.7% | -2.7% | $265.0M | 13.1% |
| Fresh Pork | $2.01B | 54.3% | -3.5% | $14.0M | 0.7% |
| Hog Production | $772.0M | 20.9% | -8.1% | $64.0M | 8.3% |
| Other | $154.0M | 4.2% | +28.3% | -$2.0M | -1.3% |
| Corporate costs (not allocated) | — | — | — | -$27.0M | — |
| Total revenue | $3.70B | 100% | — | $290.0M | 7.8% |
The lines above cover 134% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-28)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail | $1.22B | 33.1% | -4.2% |
| Foodservice | $668.0M | 18.1% | -1.3% |
| Industrial | $102.0M | 2.8% | -2.9% |
| Other / Unallocated | $15.0M | 0.4% | +114.3% |
| Exports | $13.0M | 0.4% | +8.3% |
| Total revenue | $3.70B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 54.6% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-11)

- "Outlook to Reflect External Macro Environment SMITHFIELD, Va., August 11, 2026 -- Smithfield Foods, Inc."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.26 | $0.64 | -59.8% | $3.66B | 4 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.59 | $0.75 | -21.5% | $4.25B | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.13 | $2.65 | -19.7% | $15.46B | 6 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.08 | $2.55 | -18.4% | $15.31B | 6 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-27): ±9.4%; last 7 reports averaged ±5.2%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 28.9% | ±9.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 28.4% | ±10.9% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 27.7% | ±15.4% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 37.3% | ±25.5% |