# Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/SHAK · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Shake Shack Inc. (SHAK), nexqual.com/SHAK" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 67.88 (+0.06% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 67.84 · day 66.97–69.08 · 52w 51.6–107.46 · market cap $2.90B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 1, 2026): revenue $1.55B, net income $39.7M (2.6% margin), free cash flow -$11.7M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 73.1x (avg 265.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $26K; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $3.2M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -25.8% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -4.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.34, revenue estimate $427M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $740M | $900M | $1.09B | $1.25B | $1.45B | $1.55B |
| Operating income | -$15.9M | -$26.9M | $5.9M | $3.0M | $62.5M | $55.4M |
| Net income | -$4.6M | -$21.2M | $20.3M | $10.2M | $45.7M | $39.7M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.12 | -$0.54 | $0.48 | $0.24 | $1.09 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$43.1M | -$65.8M | -$14.0M | $35.7M | $56.5M | -$11.7M |
| Operating margin | -2.1% | -3.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% |
| Net margin | -0.6% | -2.4% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% |
| Revenue growth | +41.5% | +21.7% | +20.8% | +15.2% | +15.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $382M | $311M | $293M | $321M | — | — |
| Total debt | $244M | $245M | $246M | $247M | $248M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 1, 2026)
P/E 73.1x · P/S 1.9x · P/B 5.3x · FCF yield -0.40% · Earnings yield 1.37%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 74.3x, Dec 2024 562.1x, Dec 2023 160.6x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Sentell Stephanie Ann | Chief Operations Officer | 258 | $26K | 1.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
6 purchases, $3.2M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Silverman Josh | Director | 8,290 | $501K | 60.38 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15 | Flug Jeffrey | Director | 1,000 | $61K | 61.3 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-05-15 | Chapman Charles J Iii | Director | 2,000 | $123K | 61.36 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15 | Balbale Sumaiya | Director | 4,068 | $250K | 61.42 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15 | Lynch Robert | Chief Executive Officer | 5,000 | $302K | 60.39 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15 | Meyer Daniel Harris | Director | 32,258 | $2.0M | 61.88 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $68 → $73 |
| 2026-10-21 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $65 → $70 |
| 2026-10-15 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $74 → $79 |
| 2026-09-29 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $77 → $75 |
| 2026-09-08 | RBC Capital | Initiated | Outperform | $89 |
| 2026-08-06 | DA Davidson | Target raised | Buy | $70 → $85 |
| 2026-08-06 | BNP Paribas | Target raised | Outperform | $77 → $81 |
| 2026-08-03 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $79 → $68 |
| 2026-07-31 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Outperform | $100 → $80 |
| 2026-07-14 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Neutral | $79 → $66 |
| 2026-07-09 | Deutsche Bank | Target lowered | Buy | $105 → $93 |
| 2026-06-29 | DA Davidson | Maintained | Buy | $70 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -25.8% | -4.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -25.8% | -0.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 58.0% | 52.0% |
| Max drawdown | -50.0% (Apr 2026→Jun 2026) | -63.1% (Jun 2025→Jun 2026) |

## Peers (Restaurants)
WING (Wingstop Inc.) USD 120.87 +0.77% · CHA (Chagee Holdings Limited) USD 12.46 -3.78% · ARCO (Arcos Dorados Holdings Inc.) USD 8.02 -0.87% · CAKE (The Cheesecake Factory Incorpor) USD 112.44 -1.70% · CBRL (Cracker Barrel Old Country Stor) USD 67.31 +2.37% · JMKE (Jersey Mike's Subs Inc.) USD 17.69 +0.17%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/SHAK · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in SHAK's own 10-K filed 2026-02-26 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1620533/000162053326000018/shak-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | SSE Holdings | "If the Internal Revenue Service ("IRS") were to contend successfully that SSE Holdings should be treated as a "publicly traded partnership" for U.S. federal income tax purposes, SSE Holdings would be treated as a corpora…" |

Other companies that name SHAK in their own reports (relationship from SHAK's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | PENN Entertainment, Inc. (PENN) | 10-K 2026-02-26 | "We seek to grow our customer database and PENN Play loyalty program through our iCasino and OSB businesses, the development of new properties, the expansion of existing properties and other business l…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-07-01)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shack sales | $403.4M | 96.6% | +17.5% |
| Licensing revenue | $14.2M | 3.4% | +7.1% |
| — Sales-based royalties (part of Licensing revenue) | $13.6M | 3.2% | +7.5% |
| — Initial territory, opening, and termination fees (part of Licensing revenue) | $620,000 | 0.1% | -1.4% |
| Total revenue | $417.6M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $1.41B | 97.4% | +15.4% |
| Non Us | $38.2M | 2.6% | +14.9% |
| Total revenue | $1.45B | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.34 | $0.39 | -11.7% | $427.1M | 24 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.36 | $0.43 | -16.2% | $438.7M | 23 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.13 | $1.12 | +0.9% | $1.65B | 25 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.42 | $1.49 | -4.9% | $1.89B | 26 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±14.3%; earnings reaction alone ±11.3%; last 8 reports averaged ±10.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 53.1% | ±6.3% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 88.0% | ±14.3% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 78.0% | ±15.3% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 66.8% | ±15.1% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 65.2% | ±16.4% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 60.6% | ±16.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 56.8% | ±18.3% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 55.6% | ±21.8% |