# Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/SHOO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Steven Madden, Ltd. (SHOO), nexqual.com/SHOO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 44.42 (-0.59% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 44.69 · day 43.3–44.79 · 52w 31.33–49.7 · market cap $3.25B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $2.74B, net income $148M (5.4% margin), free cash flow $224M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 22.0x (avg 32.0x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 12 Form 4 filings, $2.3M; 12 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($2.3M); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 2 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (9 analysts), mean target USD 52.11 (range 36–60).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +27.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +11.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.75, revenue estimate $778M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.87B | $2.12B | $1.98B | $2.28B | $2.53B | $2.74B |
| Gross profit | $767M | $874M | $832M | $937M | $1.05B | — |
| Operating income | $244M | $282M | $213M | $225M | $80.8M | $206M |
| Net income | $192M | $217M | $174M | $176M | $49.0M | $148M |
| EPS (diluted) | $2.34 | $2.77 | $2.30 | $2.35 | $0.63 | — |
| Free cash flow | $153M | $252M | $210M | $172M | $120M | $224M |
| Gross margin | 41.1% | 41.2% | 42.0% | 41.0% | 41.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 13.1% | 13.3% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 3.2% | 7.5% |
| Net margin | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 1.9% | 5.4% |
| Revenue growth | +55.3% | +13.7% | -6.6% | +15.2% | +11.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $264M | $290M | $220M | $203M | $112M | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | $0K | $234M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 22.0x · P/S 1.2x · P/FCF 14.5x · P/B 3.5x · FCF yield 6.90% · Earnings yield 4.54% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.88% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.42%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 60.5x, Dec 2024 17.4x, Dec 2023 18.0x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 12 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Varela Amelia | President | 15,000 | $729K | 7.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-05 | Reed Arian Simone | Director | 1,250 | $61K | 13.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-05 | Klipper Mitchell S | Director | 3,918 | $190K | 10.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-04 | Ferrara Al | Director | 3,918 | $189K | 13% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-04 | Davis Peter Allan | Director | 525 | $25K | 9.3% | No | Routine (sold in Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-06-15 | Migliorini Peter | Director | 4,000 | $181K | 19.2% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-15 | Reed Arian Simone | Director | 1,100 | $50K | 10.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-09 | Ciglar Christina | Chief Product Officer | 5,147 | $230K | 12.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-04 | Reed Arian Simone | Director | 475 | $21K | 4.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-03 | Varela Amelia | President | 10,000 | $434K | 4.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-22 | Davis Peter Allan | Director | 3,030 | $127K | 34.9% | No | Routine (sold in Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-20 | Reed Arian Simone | Director | 648 | $26K | 5.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 9 analysts; mean target USD 52.11 (low 36, high 60).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | BMO Capital | Initiated | Outperform | $60 |
| 2026-08-05 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $50 → $55 |
| 2026-07-31 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $40 → $45 |
| 2026-07-31 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $45 → $55 |
| 2026-07-30 | BTIG | Target raised | Buy | $50 → $55 |
| 2026-07-27 | BTIG | Reiterated | Buy | $50 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +27.3% | +11.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +27.4% | +2.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 41.3% | 37.2% |
| Max drawdown | -31.7% (Jan 2026→Mar 2026) | -59.2% (Sep 2024→Apr 2025) |

## Peers (Footwear & Accessories)
BIRK (Birkenstock Holding plc) USD 33.68 +4.21% · CROX (Crocs, Inc.) USD 120.99 +2.11% · WWW (Wolverine World Wide, Inc.) USD 20.68 +2.83% · ONON (On Holding AG) USD 34 -0.64% · DECK (Deckers Outdoor Corporation) USD 85.28 -0.25% · WEYS (Weyco Group, Inc.) USD 51.84 +2.25%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/SHOO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in SHOO's own 10-K filed 2026-03-02 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/913241/000162828026012995/shoo-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Designer Brands Inc. (DBI) | "For the year ended December 31, 2025, our top ten wholesale channel customers, in no particular order, included: Nordstrom, Macy's, Dillard's, Designer Brands, The TJX Companies, Ross Stores, Burlington Stores, Amazon, W…" |
| Customer | Amazon (AMZN) | "For the year ended December 31, 2025, our top ten wholesale channel customers, in no particular order, included: Nordstrom, Macy's, Dillard's, Designer Brands, The TJX Companies, Ross Stores, Burlington Stores, Amazon, W…" |
| Customer | Walmart (WMT) | "For the year ended December 31, 2025, our top ten wholesale channel customers, in no particular order, included: Nordstrom, Macy's, Dillard's, Designer Brands, The TJX Companies, Ross Stores, Burlington Stores, Amazon, W…" |
| Customer | Betsey Johnson | "We continue to promote our e-commerce platforms, through which customers can purchase Steve Madden®, Kurt Geiger London®, Dolce Vita®, Betsey Johnson®, Carvela®, Blondo®, and ATM® products." |
| Partner | SM Distribution Israel | "our joint ventures in South Africa, the Middle East, Israel, Australia, various countries in Europe, Latin America, and certain countries in Asia, ship directly to the respective countries and territories." |
| Partner | SM Fashion Australia Pty | "our joint ventures in South Africa, the Middle East, Israel, Australia, various countries in Europe, Latin America, and certain countries in Asia, ship directly to the respective countries and territories." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct-to-Consumer | $255.4M | 38.4% | +30.6% | $13.2M | 5.2% |
| Wholesale Footwear | $240.0M | 36.0% | +9.0% | $30.8M | 12.8% |
| Wholesale Accessories/Apparel | $167.5M | 25.1% | +19.2% | $21.9M | 13.1% |
| Licensing | $3.0M | 0.4% | +1.4% | $1.9M | 65.6% |
| Corporate costs (not allocated) | — | — | — | -$28.5M | — |
| Total revenue | $665.9M | 100% | — | $39.3M | 5.9% |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic | $421.0M | 63.2% | +14.4% |
| International | $244.9M | 36.8% | +28.3% |
| Geographical | $70.8M | 10.6% | -4.6% |
| Total revenue | $665.9M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 110.6% of total revenue.

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 10% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-03-02).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-30)

- "Reaffirms GAAP Diluted EPS Guidance ~ ~ Announces Appointment of Ken Pilot to Board of Directors ~ LONG ISLAND CITY, N.Y., July 30, 2026 – Steven Madden, Ltd."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.75 | $0.63 | +18.2% | $778.0M | 8 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.57 | $0.74 | -22.8% | $782.4M | 8 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.19 | $2.13 | +3.1% | $2.88B | 9 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.73 | $2.70 | +1.0% | $3.11B | 9 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±10.9%; last 8 reports averaged ±8.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 48.8% | ±10.9% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 44.5% | ±14.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 43.7% | ±16.7% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 46.5% | ±23.2% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 44.4% | ±27.9% |