# Shopify Inc. (SHOP)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/SHOP · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Shopify Inc. (SHOP), nexqual.com/SHOP" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 168.81 (-3.14% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 174.29 · day 165.44–176.95 · 52w 94–182.19 · market cap $219B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $13.3B, net income $1.93B (14.5% margin), free cash flow $2.35B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 113.6x (avg 334.5x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold SHOP (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 1 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.07 on a 1–5 scale) (54 analysts), mean target USD 175.73 (range 120–220).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +1.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +18.4% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.46, revenue estimate $3.74B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.60B | $7.06B | $8.88B | $11.6B | $13.3B |
| Gross profit | $2.75B | $3.52B | $4.47B | $5.55B | — |
| Operating income | -$822M | -$1.42B | $1.07B | $1.47B | $1.84B |
| Net income | -$3.46B | $132M | $2.02B | $1.23B | $1.93B |
| EPS (diluted) | -$2.73 | $0.10 | $1.55 | $0.94 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$186M | $905M | $1.60B | $2.01B | $2.35B |
| Gross margin | 49.2% | 49.8% | 50.4% | 48.1% | — |
| Operating margin | -14.7% | -20.1% | 12.1% | 12.7% | 13.9% |
| Net margin | -61.8% | 1.9% | 22.7% | 10.7% | 14.5% |
| Revenue growth | — | +26.1% | +25.8% | +30.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.65B | $5.01B | $5.48B | $5.78B | — |
| Total debt | — | $916M | $0K | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 113.6x · P/S 16.5x · P/FCF 93.1x · P/B 17.3x · FCF yield 1.07% · Earnings yield 0.88%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 170.6x, Dec 2024 68.5x, Dec 2023 764.5x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold SHOP. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 4.50% | $523M | Reduced -27.4% |
| Henry Ellenbogen | Durable Capital Partners | 2.59% | $267M | Added +140.3% |
| Thomas Gayner | Markel Group | 0.09% | $11.7M | Unchanged |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.07 on a 1–5 scale), 54 analysts; mean target USD 175.73 (low 120, high 220).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $180 → $200 |
| 2026-10-14 | Baird | Target raised | Outperform | $160 → $190 |
| 2026-10-12 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target raised | Neutral | $145 → $158 |
| 2026-10-06 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $185 → $200 |
| 2026-09-23 | Wedbush | Reiterated | Outperform | $176 |
| 2026-09-11 | Bernstein | Initiated | Outperform | $160 |
| 2026-09-08 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $172 → $180 |
| 2026-08-20 | Rosenblatt | Initiated | Buy | $175 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $144 → $180 |
| 2026-08-06 | Canaccord Genuity | Target raised | Buy | $145 → $180 |
| 2026-08-06 | DA Davidson | Target raised | Buy | $140 → $200 |
| 2026-08-06 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $130 → $145 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +1.1% | +18.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +1.1% | +3.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 58.9% | 66.5% |
| Max drawdown | -46.7% (Oct 2025→May 2026) | -84.6% (Nov 2021→Oct 2022) |

## Peers (Software - Application)
CRM (Salesforce, Inc.) USD 250.29 +3.52% · SAP (SAP  SE) USD 240.59 +3.38% · NOW (ServiceNow, Inc.) USD 157 +2.53% · UBER (Uber Technologies, Inc.) USD 69.07 +2.14% · ADP (Automatic Data Processing, Inc.) USD 307.94 +4.56% · SNOW (Snowflake Inc.) USD 313.96 -2.72%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/SHOP · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)


Other companies that name SHOP in their own reports (relationship from SHOP's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) | 10-K 2026-08-27 | "The loss of, or decrease in business with, any one of our significant commercial partner relationships, such as with Amazon or Shopify, would adversely affect our business." |
| supplier | Robot Consulting Co., Ltd. (LAWR) | 20-F 2026-07-31 | "service included helping customers set up stores on ANZ, building e-commerce websites using Shopify, and providing support regarding" |
| partner | Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) | 20-F 2026-04-30 | "On May 7, 2025, the Company announced a strategic investment transaction in Toloka, the Group's data-for-generative AI solutions business, led by Bezos Expeditions with participation from Mikhail Para…" |
| competitor | JOYY Inc. (JOYY) | 20-F 2026-04-28 | "We also face competition from companies that provide smart commerce solutions for merchants, such as Shopify." |
| supplier | NEXGEL, INC. (NXGL) | 10-K 2026-03-31 | "includes freight charged to customers who purchase the Company's branded consumer products through their Shopify stores." |
| partner | Smartbird, Inc. (BIRD) | 10-K 2026-03-31 | "We leverage technology across channels which enables us to rely on partners, such as Shopify, to more effectively scale." |
| competitor | REZOLVE AI PLC (RZLV) | 20-F 2026-03-30 | "In addition, Shopify, BigCommerce, and other leading e-commerce platforms may elect to develop or integrate competing AI-powered search, discovery, and checkout solutions, potentially bundling AI capa…" |
| partner | Global-E Online Ltd. (GLBE) | 20-F 2026-03-26 | "acceptance, if our agreement and partnership with Shopify are terminated, or if the agreement is not renewed on favorable terms, or if" |
| supplier | Innovative Eyewear Inc (LUCY) | 10-K 2026-03-25 | "All customer and app user information is stored directly within Shopify, Amazon Seller, and Amazon Web Services platforms, which provide market-leading data security for their centralized servers." |
| partner | dLocal Ltd (DLO) | 20-F 2026-03-18 | "We also partner with leading marketplaces such as Shopify to help their SMB clients and partners extend their geographic reach." |
| supplier | Once Upon a Farm, PBC (OFRM) | 10-K 2026-03-16 | "The Company generates revenue primarily through the sales of Pouches, snacks and other products for babies and kids to end customers through retail channels, which include traditional brick-and-mortar…" |
| partner | Katapult Holdings, Inc. (KPLT) | 10-K 2026-03-11 | "In addition to Wayfair, we have contractual arrangements with many of our other e-commerce partners, including Shopify, BigCommerce, WooCommerce, and Magneto among others." |
| partner | RISKIFIED LTD. (RSKD) | 20-F 2026-03-06 | "We service merchants of all sizes, from multi-billion dollar global omnichannel retailers to small pure play merchants, including via partnerships and/or integrations with Shopify and other ecommerce …" |
| competitor | Shift4 Payments, Inc. (FOUR) | 10-K 2026-02-27 | "For certain services and solutions, including end-to-end payments, we compete with non-integrated payment processors (such as Chase Paymentech, Elavon, Worldpay, Fiserv and Global Payments) and integr…" |
| competitor | Sezzle Inc. (SEZL) | 10-K 2026-02-26 | "Sezzle is a seeking an injunction to prevent Shopify from continuing its anticompetitive conduct and to restore competition and consumer choice." |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merchant solutions | $2.78B | 77.6% | +37.4% |
| Subscription solutions | $802.0M | 22.4% | +22.3% |
| Total revenue | $3.58B | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.46 | $0.44 | +3.5% | $3.74B | 33 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.65 | $0.63 | +2.4% | $4.75B | 30 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.91 | $1.85 | +3.6% | $15.25B | 40 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.46 | $2.33 | +5.3% | $19.21B | 40 |