# The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/SMG · data as of 2026-10-23 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG), nexqual.com/SMG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 59.29 (+0.24% on the day) · last close of Oct 23, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 59.15 · day 58.21–59.72 · 52w 47.9–75.34 · market cap $3.45B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 27, 2026): revenue $3.48B, net income $73.9M (2.1% margin), free cash flow $263M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 46.7x (avg 23.0x at the last 1 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 12.4x, net debt $2.09B.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold SMG (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +11.7% vs S&P 500 +13.4%; 5Y -51.4% vs S&P 500 +76.9%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD -2.21, revenue estimate $306M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.92B | $3.92B | $3.55B | $3.55B | $3.41B | $3.48B |
| Gross profit | $1.47B | $873M | $657M | $851M | $1.04B | — |
| Operating income | $723M | -$434M | -$174M | $209M | $359M | $383M |
| Net income | $513M | -$438M | -$380M | -$34.9M | $145M | $73.9M |
| EPS (diluted) | $8.96 | -$7.88 | -$6.79 | -$0.61 | $2.47 | — |
| Free cash flow | $165M | -$243M | $438M | $584M | $274M | $263M |
| Gross margin | 29.8% | 22.2% | 18.5% | 23.9% | 30.6% | — |
| Operating margin | 14.7% | -11.1% | -4.9% | 5.9% | 10.5% | 11.0% |
| Net margin | 10.4% | -11.1% | -10.7% | -1.0% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Revenue growth | +19.2% | -20.3% | -9.5% | +0.0% | -3.9% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $244M | $86.8M | $31.9M | $71.6M | $32.8M | — |
| Total debt | $2.29B | $2.97B | $2.61B | $2.23B | $2.11B | — |
Fiscal years end Sep. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 27, 2026)
P/E 46.7x · P/S 1.0x · EV/EBITDA 12.4x · EV/Sales 1.6x · P/FCF 13.1x · FCF yield 7.63% · Earnings yield 2.14% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 4.47% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.35% · Net debt $2.09B · EV $5.54B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Sep 2025 23.0x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold SMG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Rogers | Ariel Investments | 0.96% | $96.1M | Added +46.6% |

## Analysts
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | UBS | Upgrade | Neutral → Buy | $78 → $70 |
| 2026-10-05 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $77 → $60 |
| 2026-09-29 | Stifel | Target lowered | Buy | $76 → $75 |
| 2026-08-03 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $75 → $76 |
| 2026-07-30 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $70 → $78 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $74 → $77 |
| 2026-07-16 | UBS | Target raised | Neutral | $63 → $70 |
| 2026-07-08 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $72 → $74 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-24) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +11.7% | -51.4% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.4% | +76.9% |
| Per year | +11.7% | -13.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 38.4% | 46.9% |
| Max drawdown | -33.4% (Jul 2026→Sep 2026) | -76.2% (Nov 2021→Oct 2022) |

## Peers (Agricultural Inputs)
MOS (Mosaic Company (The)) USD 17.84 +3.30% · ICL (ICL Group Ltd.) USD 4.77 +1.27% · CTVA (Corteva, Inc.) USD 12.45 -3.19% · UAN (CVR Partners, LP) USD 125.44 +0.17% · FMC (FMC Corporation) USD 5.05 +0.60% · CF (CF Industries Holdings, Inc.) USD 120.68 +1.79%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/SMG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in SMG's own 10-K filed 2025-11-25 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/825542/000082554225000022/smg-20250930.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Home Depot (HD) | "The Home Depot and Lowe's are our two largest customers and are the only customers that individually represent more than 10% of reported consolidated net sales during any of the three most recent fiscal years." |
| Customer | Lowe's (LOW) | "The Home Depot and Lowe's are our two largest customers and are the only customers that individually represent more than 10% of reported consolidated net sales during any of the three most recent fiscal years." |
| Competitor | Procter & Gamble (PG) | "Primary competitors include Spectrum Brands Holdings, Inc., Central Garden & Pet Company, Kellogg Garden Products, Oldcastle Retail, Inc., Lebanon Seaboard Corporation, Reckitt Benckiser Group plc, FoxFarm Soil & Fertili…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-27)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Consumer reportable | $1.03B | 88.1% | +0.3% |
| Other non-reportable operating | $139.2M | 11.9% | +7.8% |
| Total revenue | $1.17B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-27)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growing media and mulch | $589.5M | 50.3% | -1.9% |
| Lawn care | $216.6M | 18.5% | -4.8% |
| Controls | $136.0M | 11.6% | +20.2% |
| Growing media | $56.3M | 4.8% | +10.0% |
| Other, primarily gardening | $47.7M | 4.1% | +3.2% |
| Roundup® marketing agreement | $43.1M | 3.7% | +2.4% |
| Other, primarily gardening and controls | $34.3M | 2.9% | -4.5% |
| Total revenue | $1.17B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 95.9% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2025-06-28)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $1.07B | 89.7% | -1.6% |
| Non Us | $122.1M | 10.3% | +3.0% |
| Total revenue | $1.19B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-09-30: 34%, 18% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2025-11-25).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-2.21 | $-1.94 | +14.0% | $306.1M | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.71 | $-0.73 | -1.4% | $362.9M | 4 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-09-30) | $4.41 | $4.35 | +1.6% | $3.29B | 8 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-09-30) | $4.69 | $4.71 | -0.4% | $3.36B | 8 |