# The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/SMPL · data as of 2026-10-23 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL), nexqual.com/SMPL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 10.41 (-6.05% on the day) · last close of Oct 23, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 11.08 · day 10.32–11.14 · 52w 9.38–22 · market cap $921M · NCM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through May 30, 2026): revenue $1.39B, net income -$199M (-14.3% margin), free cash flow $119M (SEC filings).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold SMPL (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $1.1M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.70 on a 1–5 scale) (10 analysts), mean target USD 13.75 (range 11–20).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -48.6% vs S&P 500 +13.4%; 5Y -73.8% vs S&P 500 +76.9%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-27, EPS estimate USD 0.4, revenue estimate $327M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.01B | $1.17B | $1.24B | $1.33B | $1.45B | $1.39B |
| Gross profit | $410M | $446M | $453M | $512M | $526M | — |
| Operating income | $174M | $203M | $205M | $206M | $157M | -$237M |
| Net income | $40.9M | $109M | $134M | $139M | $104M | -$199M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.42 | $1.08 | $1.32 | $1.38 | $1.02 | — |
| Free cash flow | $126M | $105M | $160M | $210M | $158M | $119M |
| Gross margin | 40.7% | 38.1% | 36.5% | 38.4% | 36.2% | — |
| Operating margin | 17.3% | 17.3% | 16.5% | 15.5% | 10.8% | -17.1% |
| Net margin | 4.1% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 7.1% | -14.3% |
| Revenue growth | +23.1% | +16.2% | +6.3% | +7.1% | +9.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $75.3M | $67.5M | $87.7M | $133M | $98.5M | — |
| Total debt | $452M | $403M | $282M | $397M | $249M | — |
Fiscal years end Aug. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through May 30, 2026)
P/S 0.7x · EV/Sales 0.9x · P/FCF 7.7x · P/B 0.7x · FCF yield 12.97% · Earnings yield -21.59% · Buyback yield (TTM) 26.04% · Net debt $273M · EV $1.19B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Aug 2025 28.0x, Aug 2024 23.0x, Aug 2023 27.2x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold SMPL. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howard Marks | Oaktree Capital | 0.42% | $16.0M | Added +6.6% |

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 purchases, $1.1M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Daley Clayton C Jr | Director | 10,000 | $118K | 11.78 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-23 | Kilts James M | Director | 80,000 | $991K | 12.39 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.70 on a 1–5 scale), 10 analysts; mean target USD 13.75 (low 11, high 20).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Hold | $13 → $11 |
| 2026-07-10 | DA Davidson | Target lowered | Neutral | $39 → $14 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-24) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -48.6% | -73.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.4% | +76.9% |
| Per year | -48.7% | -23.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 49.0% | 35.7% |
| Max drawdown | -55.9% (Jan 2026→Sep 2026) | -77.9% (Apr 2022→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Packaged Foods)
INGR (Ingredion Incorporated) USD 95.7 -1.52% · CPB (The Campbell's Company) USD 20.73 -2.49% · PPC (Pilgrim's Pride Corporation) USD 28.13 +0.14% · CAG (ConAgra Brands, Inc.) USD 14.86 -1.39% · SFD (Smithfield Foods, Inc.) USD 18.64 -0.93% · LW (Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.) USD 53.83 -2.45%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/SMPL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in SMPL's own 10-K filed 2025-10-28 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1702744/000170274425000046/atk-20250830.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Amazon (AMZN) | "Sales to our next largest retailer, Amazon, represented approximately 18% of consolidated sales in fiscal year 2025." |
| Customer | Walmart (WMT) | "Sales to our largest retailer, Walmart Inc., represented approximately 31% of consolidated sales in fiscal year 2025, with approximately 24% through their mass retail channel and approximately 7% through their Sam's Club…" |
| Customer | NCP-ATK Holdings | "We sell our products on questnutrition.com, Atkins.com, liveowyn.com, Amazon.com and the e-commerce platforms of our brick-and-mortar customers, which all deliver our products directly to the location designated by the c…" |
| Partner | Only What You Need | "•We intend to grow through mergers, acquisitions or joint ventures, and we may not successfully integrate, operate or realize the anticipated benefits of such business combinations, including the OWYN Acquisition." |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-08-30: 31%, 18% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2025-10-28).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-09)

- "We delivered third quarter net sales of $357 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $57 million, ahead of our expectations, with performance supported in part by the early effect of select cost actions we announced last quarter," said Joe Scalzo, President and Chief Executive Officer."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-08-31) | $0.40 | $0.41 | -4.0% | $327.1M | 10 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-11-30) | $0.38 | $0.40 | -5.2% | $298.8M | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-08-31) | $1.64 | $1.65 | -0.2% | $1.35B | 10 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-08-31) | $1.67 | $1.71 | -2.4% | $1.23B | 10 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-27): ±15.1%; last 8 reports averaged ±9.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 27 | 67.6% | ±15.1% |
| 2026-12-18 | 55 | 77.0% | ±23.5% |
| 2027-02-19 | 118 | 54.5% | ±23.5% |
| 2027-05-21 | 209 | 50.5% | ±30.3% |