# Semtech Corporation (SMTC)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/SMTC · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Semtech Corporation (SMTC), nexqual.com/SMTC" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 125.12 (-11.66% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 141.63 · day 123.36–133.1 · 52w 60.28–201.99 · market cap $11.7B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 26, 2026): revenue $1.17B, net income $154M (13.1% margin), free cash flow $193M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 75.8x.
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold SMTC (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 31 Form 4 filings, $11.3M; 7 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($4.9M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale) (16 analysts), mean target USD 217.07 (range 186–300).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +82.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +60.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-23, EPS estimate USD 1.13, revenue estimate $416M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $741M | $757M | $869M | $909M | $1.05B | $1.17B |
| Gross profit | $461M | $479M | $296M | $457M | $542M | — |
| Operating income | $145M | $92.8M | -$944M | $49.9M | $32.6M | $94.4M |
| Net income | $126M | $61.4M | -$1.09B | -$162M | -$40.4M | $154M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.92 | $0.96 | -$17.03 | -$2.26 | -$0.46 | — |
| Free cash flow | $177M | $98.4M | -$123M | $50.1M | $171M | $193M |
| Gross margin | 62.2% | 63.3% | 34.1% | 50.2% | 51.6% | — |
| Operating margin | 19.6% | 12.3% | -108.7% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 8.0% |
| Net margin | 17.0% | 8.1% | -125.7% | -17.8% | -3.8% | 13.1% |
| Revenue growth | +24.5% | +2.1% | +14.8% | +4.7% | +15.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $292M | $248M | $143M | $164M | $195M | — |
| Total debt | $172M | $1.34B | $1.37B | $552M | $491M | — |
Fiscal years end Jan. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 26, 2026)
P/E 75.8x · P/S 9.9x · P/FCF 60.5x · P/B 15.6x · FCF yield 1.65% · Earnings yield 1.32%

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold SMTC. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.02% | $2.2M | Added +103.8% |
| Lee Ainslie | Maverick Capital | <0.01% | $499K | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
24 of 31 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Green Jason Elliot | EVP and CCO | 2,766 | $527K | 27.3% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-10-02 | Hou Hong Q | President and CEO | 2,000 | $382K | 2.9% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-10-01 | Lin Mark | EVP and CFO | 967 | $173K | 2.6% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-23 | Walsh Paul V Jr | Director | 500 | $86K | 1.8% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
| 2026-09-16 | Cardenuto Rodolpho C | Director | 5,321 | $878K | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-10 | Lin Mark | EVP and CFO | 683 | $109K | 1.9% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-04 | Ruehl Julie Garcia | Director | 1,500 | $218K | 17.4% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-04 | Hou Hong Q | President and CEO | 2,000 | $277K | 3.2% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-19 | Walsh Paul V Jr | Director | 500 | $68K | 1.8% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
| 2026-08-17 | Silberstein Asaf | EVP and COO | 5,000 | $750K | 5.3% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-07 | Hou Hong Q | President and CEO | 2,000 | $280K | 3.1% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-22 | Walsh Paul V Jr | Director | 500 | $67K | 1.8% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
| 2026-07-14 | Silberstein Asaf | EVP and COO | 3,000 | $435K | 3.1% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-10 | Hou Hong Q | President and CEO | 2,000 | $266K | 3% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-08 | Silberstein Asaf | EVP and COO | 8,500 | $1.1M | 8.1% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-07 | Green Jason Elliot | EVP and CCO | 2,264 | $294K | 20.8% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-01 | Lin Mark | EVP and CFO | 970 | $146K | 2.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-30 | Fischer Gregory Michael | Director | 1,500 | $234K | 20.9% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-29 | Hou Hong Q | President and CEO | 9,605 | $1.5M | 13.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-24 | Walsh Paul V Jr | Director | 500 | $82K | 1.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.00 on a 1–5 scale), 16 analysts; mean target USD 217.07 (low 186, high 300).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | TD Cowen | Reiterated | Buy | $215 |
| 2026-10-16 | Northland Capital Markets | Upgrade | Market Perform → Outperform | $186 |
| 2026-10-16 | Stifel | Target lowered | Buy | $220 → $200 |
| 2026-10-13 | BMO Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $155 → $230 |
| 2026-10-05 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $188 → $220 |
| 2026-10-01 | Oppenheimer | Target raised | Outperform | $200 → $225 |
| 2026-09-23 | Seaport Global | Initiated | Buy | $200 |
| 2026-08-27 | Northland Capital Markets | Upgrade | Market Perform → Outperform | $182 |
| 2026-08-27 | Baird | Target raised | Outperform | $225 → $300 |
| 2026-08-26 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $175 → $195 |
| 2026-08-26 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $225 → $230 |
| 2026-08-26 | Needham | Reiterated | Buy | $200 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +82.2% | +60.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +82.5% | +9.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 79.1% | 64.1% |
| Max drawdown | -40.7% (Jun 2026→Jul 2026) | -84.2% (Nov 2021→Oct 2023) |

## Peers (Semiconductors)
SITM (SiTime Corporation) USD 462.72 -9.13% · LSCC (Lattice Semiconductor Corporati) USD 96.4 -10.57% · RMBS (Rambus, Inc.) USD 85.73 -7.62% · SWKS (Skyworks Solutions, Inc.) USD 82.39 +0.21% · MTSI (MACOM Technology Solutions Hold) USD 229.73 -15.87% · TSEM (Tower Semiconductor Ltd.) USD 167.71 -11.52%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/SMTC · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in SMTC's own 10-K filed 2026-03-23 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/88941/000008894126000005/smtc-20260125.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | HieFo | "However, following the HieFo Acquisition, we now operate foundries that produce certain semiconductor devices used across data center interconnects and intra-data center interconnects." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-07-26)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Semiconductor Products | $243.5M | 71.2% | +44.3% |
| — Signal Integrity (part of Total Semiconductor Products) | $126.2M | 36.9% | +64.4% |
| — Analog Mixed Signal and Wireless (part of Total Semiconductor Products) | $117.4M | 34.3% | +27.5% |
| IoT Systems and Connectivity | $98.3M | 28.8% | +10.8% |
| Total revenue | $341.9M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-04-26)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | $264.9M | 91.0% | +18.4% |
| Service | $26.1M | 9.0% | -4.2% |
| Total revenue | $291.0M | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2026-01-25)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia-Pacific | $697.6M | 66.4% | +21.4% |
| North America | $231.9M | 22.1% | +13.4% |
| Europe | $120.5M | 11.5% | -7.4% |
| Total revenue | $1.05B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-07-26: 15%, 12% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-26).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-10-31) | $1.13 | $0.73 | +56.0% | $416.4M | 15 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-01-31) | $1.29 | $0.81 | +59.9% | $449.6M | 15 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-01-31) | $3.65 | $2.66 | +37.4% | $1.50B | 15 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-01-31) | $6.67 | $3.90 | +71.0% | $2.04B | 15 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-27 (includes earnings 2026-11-23): ±19.9%; last 8 reports averaged ±11.6%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 91.1% | ±11.0% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 87.4% | ±14.4% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 83.4% | ±16.6% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 81.7% | ±18.6% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 78.6% | ±19.9% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 85.7% | ±23.7% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 83.5% | ±26.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 77.8% | ±30.2% |