# Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/SPCX · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX), nexqual.com/SPCX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 144.75 (-9.14% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 159.31 · day 143.21–154.22 · 52w 104.83–225.64 · market cap $1.91T · NMS

## Key facts
- Valuation: P/E 1059.4x, EV/EBITDA 178.5x, net cash $52.0B.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income $1.49B vs operating income $1.41B over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈3521.6x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 15.6% effective rate).
- 5 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold SPCX (13F, Q2 2026): 5 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $53.7M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.2M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.08 on a 1–5 scale) (38 analysts), mean target USD 257.71 (range 70–800).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -10.1% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -10.1% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-20, EPS estimate USD 0.41, revenue estimate $22.8B.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 30, 2026)
P/E 1059.4x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈3521.6x · P/S 59.6x · EV/EBITDA 178.5x · EV/Sales 57.9x · P/B 10.8x · Earnings yield 0.09% · Net cash $52.0B · EV $1.86T

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
5 of 80 tracked investors hold SPCX. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Loeb | Third Point | 0.66% | $30.8M | New position |
| Viking Global | Viking Global Investors | 0.58% | $205M | New position |
| David Tepper | Appaloosa Management | 0.51% | $38.4M | New position |
| Chase Coleman | Tiger Global Management | 0.27% | $64.1M | New position |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.01% | $1.1M | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Shotwell Gwynne | President and COO | 342,170 | $52.5M | 5.8% | Yes (adopted June 23, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-04-02 | Musk Elon | CEO, CTO & Chairman | 11,390 | $1.2M | 0% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.08 on a 1–5 scale), 38 analysts; mean target USD 257.71 (low 70, high 800).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Buy | $235 → $275 |
| 2026-10-22 | Pivotal Research | Target raised | Buy | $230 → $260 |
| 2026-10-21 | Macquarie | Maintained | Outperform | $250 |
| 2026-10-21 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $210 → $230 |
| 2026-10-21 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $200 → $240 |
| 2026-10-21 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $254 → $300 |
| 2026-10-21 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $240 → $500 |
| 2026-10-21 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | Outperform | $275 → $300 |
| 2026-10-21 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $214 → $274 |
| 2026-10-21 | Keybanc | Reiterated | Sector Weight |  |
| 2026-10-21 | Susquehanna | Target raised | Neutral | $173 → $176 |
| 2026-10-21 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $200 → $224 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2026-06-12) | 5Y (from 2026-06-08) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -10.1% | -10.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | — | — |
| Volatility (annualized) | 83.4% | 68.2% |
| Max drawdown | -48.8% (Jun 2026→Aug 2026) | -41.4% (Jun 2026→Jul 2026) |

## Peers (Aerospace & Defense)
GE (GE Aerospace) USD 293.54 -0.79% · RTX (RTX Corporation) USD 194.71 +1.62% · BA (Boeing Company (The)) USD 187.55 -2.46% · LMT (Lockheed Martin Corporation) USD 589.91 +6.96% · GD (General Dynamics Corporation) USD 350.79 +1.76% · HWM (Howmet Aerospace Inc.) USD 193.29 -7.14%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/SPCX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SI | $7.56B | 51.9% | +829.9% | $431.0M | 5.7% |
| Connectivity | $5.25B | 36.0% | +69.5% | $2.37B | 45.1% |
| Space | $1.77B | 12.1% | +6.1% | -$7.0M | -0.4% |
| Total revenue | $14.57B | 100% | — | $2.79B | 19.1% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Services | $13.80B | 94.7% | +168.2% |
| SI Solutions & Infrastructure | $7.02B | 48.2% | +1856.0% |
| — Consumer (part of SI Solutions & Infrastructure) | $3.12B | 21.4% | +57.2% |
| — Enterprise & Government (part of SI Solutions & Infrastructure) | $2.13B | 14.6% | +91.4% |
| — Launch Services (part of SI Solutions & Infrastructure) | $1.13B | 7.8% | +13.0% |
| — Launch & Development (part of SI Solutions & Infrastructure) | $637.0M | 4.4% | -4.4% |
| Products | $771.0M | 5.3% | +79.3% |
| Advertising | $538.0M | 3.7% | +18.5% |
| Total revenue | $14.57B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 151.9% of total revenue.

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-09-30: 34.5%, 16.6% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-10-22).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-20)

- "The trans action is expected to close in the first half of 2027, subject to regulatory and other customary closing conditions."
- "Contacts Investors investors@spacex.com Conference Call and Livestream Information SpaceX will discuss its financial and operational results, as well as its business outlook, in a live webcast beginning at 3:30 p.m."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.41 | $0.24 | +76.1% | $22.76B | 20 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $0.85 | $0.21 | +301.3% | $33.79B | 12 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.27 | $-0.48 | -156.5% | $48.71B | 26 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.90 | $0.65 | +497.2% | $180.58B | 26 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 3 | 55.4% | ±4.7% |
| 2026-10-28 | 5 | 59.1% | ±6.0% |
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 58.7% | ±7.0% |
| 2026-11-02 | 10 | 53.9% | ±7.5% |
| 2026-11-04 | 12 | 53.8% | ±8.1% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 56.7% | ±9.1% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 56.0% | ±10.9% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 54.8% | ±12.2% |