# Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/SPOT · data as of 2026-11-04 21:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT), nexqual.com/SPOT" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 627.66 (+4.59% on the day) · last close of Nov 4, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 600.09 · day 606.45–632.49 · 52w 405–668.5 · market cap $129B · NYQ

## Key facts
- 7 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold SPOT (13F, Q2 2026 (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early)): 1 new, 1 added, 3 reduced, 2 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 14 Form 4 filings, $97.5M; 4 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($24.8M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.95 on a 1–5 scale) (41 analysts), mean target USD 646.61 (range 460.98–752.87).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +1.2% vs S&P 500 +14.4%; 5Y +117.2% vs S&P 500 +75.0%.
- Latest earnings report: 2026-10-22 (next date not yet announced).
- Dividend: SPOT paid no cash dividend in the last five years.
- Short interest: 2.20% of float (as of 2026-10-15), 2.4 days to cover.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
7 of 80 tracked investors hold SPOT (1 investor on Q3 2026, filed early). Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Tarasoff | Greenlea Lane Capital | 4.96% | $18.1M | New position | Q2 2026 |
| ValueAct Capital |  | 4.29% | $242M | Added +47.0% | Q2 2026 |
| Chase Coleman | Tiger Global Management | 2.24% | $538M | Reduced -25.9% | Q2 2026 |
| William Von Mueffling | Cantillon Capital Management | 1.40% | $9.3M | Reduced -95.4% | Q2 2026 |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.32% | $37.5M | Reduced -24.1% | Q2 2026 |
| Thomas Gayner | Markel Group | 0.10% | $12.6M | Unchanged | Q3 2026 |
| Robert Vinall | RV Capital GmbH | 0.06% | $230K | Unchanged | Q2 2026 |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
10 of 14 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Soderstrom Gustav | Co-Chief Executive Officer | 20,910 | $11.1M | 51.2% | Yes (adopted June 12, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-14 | Soderstrom Gustav | Co-Chief Executive Officer | 20,913 | $11.4M | 51.1% | Yes (adopted June 12, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-14 | Jenkins Dustee | Chief Public Affairs Officer | 3,810 | $2.0M | 8.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-03 | Norstrom Alex | Co-Chief Executive Officer | 5,436 | $2.7M | 7.5% | Yes (adopted December 11, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-03 | Soderstrom Gustav | Co-Chief Executive Officer | 20,833 | $10.6M | 50.8% | Yes (adopted December 11, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-06 | Norstrom Alex | Co-Chief Executive Officer | 5,436 | $2.6M | 7.4% | Yes (adopted December 11, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-06 | Soderstrom Gustav | Co-Chief Executive Officer | 20,833 | $10.0M | 50.7% | Yes (adopted December 11, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-02 | Soderstrom Gustav | Co-Chief Executive Officer | 20,833 | $10.3M | 50.6% | Yes (adopted December 11, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-02 | Norstrom Alex | Co-Chief Executive Officer | 5,436 | $2.7M | 7.4% | Yes (adopted December 11, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-26 | Marshall Christopher P | Director | 2,650 | $1.4M | 0.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-26 | Staggs Thomas O | Director | 5,477 | $2.9M | 17% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-22 | Lorentzon Sven Hans Martin | Director | 35,380 | $18.6M | 0.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-05 | Soderstrom Gustav | Co-Chief Executive Officer | 20,833 | $9.0M | 50.4% | Yes (adopted December 11, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-05 | Norstrom Alex | Co-Chief Executive Officer | 5,436 | $2.4M | 7.3% | Yes (adopted December 11, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.95 on a 1–5 scale), 41 analysts; mean target USD 646.61 (low 460.98, high 752.87).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $640 → $700 |
| 2026-10-23 | Oppenheimer | Target raised | Outperform | $550 → $650 |
| 2026-10-23 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Neutral | $540 → $580 |
| 2026-10-23 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $650 → $700 |
| 2026-10-23 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | Outperform | $700 → $750 |
| 2026-10-23 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $570 → $660 |
| 2026-10-23 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $565 → $650 |
| 2026-10-23 | TD Cowen | Reiterated | Hold | $525 |
| 2026-10-23 | Citizens | Reiterated | Market Outperform | $625 |
| 2026-10-23 | Guggenheim | Target raised | Buy | $575 → $650 |
| 2026-10-23 | Rosenblatt | Target raised | Neutral | $527 → $576 |
| 2026-10-23 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Target raised | Neutral | $490 → $550 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-11-05) | 5Y (from 2021-11-01) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +1.2% | +117.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.4% | +75.0% |
| Per year | +1.2% | +16.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 46.9% | 43.6% |
| Max drawdown | -36.3% (Nov 2025→Feb 2026) | -75.4% (Nov 2021→Oct 2022) |

## Dividends
SPOT paid no cash dividend in the last five years.

## Short interest
3,480,760 shares sold short, 2.20% of the float, as of Oct 15, 2026 (exchange short-interest report, published about twice a month). Prior report (Sep 15, 2026): 4,522,956 shares (-23.0%). Days to cover: 2.4 (short shares ÷ average daily volume).

## Peers (Internet Content & Information)
PINS (Pinterest, Inc.) USD 21.22 +4.22% · NBIS (Nebius Group N.V.) USD 141.52 -6.67% · BIDU (Baidu, Inc.) USD 80.43 +4.50% · RDDT (Reddit, Inc.) USD 101.89 +5.97% · TME (Tencent Music Entertainment Gro) USD 9.48 +4.87% · META (Meta Platforms, Inc.) USD 630 +1.44%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/SPOT · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in SPOT's own 20-F filed 2026-02-10 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026006874/ck0001639920-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | OpenAI | "On October 6, 2025, we announced a new partnership with OpenAI, extending our ubiquity strategy into emerging agentic AI." |
| Partner | CEO of Candle Media | "In addition to his role on our board of directors, Mr. Staggs is the founder and co-CEO of Candle Media LLC and is a partner of Smash Capital Advisors LP." |
| Competitor | Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL) | "Some of our competitors, including Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon, have developed, and are continuing to develop, devices for which their audio streaming services are preloaded or may also be set as the default providers, w…" |
| Competitor | Amazon (AMZN) | "Some of our competitors, including Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon, have developed, and are continuing to develop, devices for which their audio streaming services are preloaded or may also be set as the default providers, w…" |
| Competitor | Apple (AAPL) | "Some of our competitors, including Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon, have developed, and are continuing to develop, devices for which their audio streaming services are preloaded or may also be set as the default providers, w…" |
| Competitor | Meta Platforms (META) | "We face robust and rapidly evolving competition in all aspects of our business, including from companies that allow users to share and discover content and/or that enable advertisers to use content platforms to reach cus…" |
| Competitor | ByteDance | "We face robust and rapidly evolving competition in all aspects of our business, including from companies that allow users to share and discover content and/or that enable advertisers to use content platforms to reach cus…" |

Other companies that name SPOT in their own reports (relationship from SPOT's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| competitor | LiveOne, Inc. (LVO) | 10-K 2026-06-29 | "Our competitors include (i) broadcast radio providers, including terrestrial radio providers such as CBS and satellite radio providers such as Sirius XM, (ii) interactive on-demand audio content and p…" |
| competitor | PodcastOne, Inc. (PODC) | 10-K 2026-06-29 | "We compete for the time and attention of our users across different forms of media, including traditional broadcast, satellite, and internet radio (iHeartRadio, LastFM, Pandora, and SiriusXM), other p…" |
| partner | Reservoir Media, Inc. (RSVR) | 10-K 2026-05-28 | "In connection with the digital distribution of our music, we currently partner with a broad range of digital music services, such as Amazon, Apple, Deezer, Spotify, SoundCloud, Tencent Music Entertain…" |
| competitor | CUMULUS MEDIA INC (CMLSQ) | 10-K 2026-04-10 | "•audio programming by internet content providers, internet radio stations such as Spotify and Pandora, cable systems, direct broadcast satellite systems and other digital audio broadcast formats;" |
| partner | dLocal Ltd (DLO) | 20-F 2026-03-18 | "To that end, as of December 31, 2025, over 760 global merchants, including brand names such as Shein, Didi, Payoneer, Temu, Google, Facebook, Rappi, Deel, Uber, SpaceX, Worldpay and Spotify, across mu…" |
| competitor | Townsquare Media, Inc. (TSQ) | 10-K 2026-03-16 | "Many competing audio media offerings, including Spotify, Pandora and SiriusXM, do not offer any local content in our markets." |
| competitor | AUDDIA INC. (AUUD) | 10-K 2026-03-06 | "competitive responses from larger platforms with substantial scale and promotion tooling (e.g., Spotify and SoundCloud), and broader market" |
| competitor | ENTRAVISION COMMUNICATIONS CORP (EVC) | 10-K 2026-03-05 | "We also compete for the time of Latino consumers against streaming video services, such as Netflix, YouTube and ViX (which is owned and operated by TelevisaUnvision), digital audio platforms like Spot…" |
| supplier | AKAMAI TECHNOLOGIES INC (AKAM) | 10-K 2026-02-20 | "Our customers include many of the world's leading corporations, such as adidas, Adobe, Aflac, Airbnb, Asus, Autodesk, Bank of Montreal, Carnival Corporation, Comcast, Commerzbank, Daiwa Institute of R…" |
| competitor | Roblox Corp (RBLX) | 10-K 2026-02-11 | "We compete for users and their engagement hours with global technology leaders such as Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Google, Microsoft, and Tencent, global entertainment companies such as Comcast, Di…" |
| competitor | SIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC. (SIRI) | 10-K 2026-02-05 | "Streaming and on-demand services, including Amazon Prime, Apple Music, Spotify, TikTok and YouTube, compete with our SiriusXM and Pandora services." |
| partner | Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) | 10-K 2025-11-20 | "As a proactive measure, WMG and other major music rightsholders are collaborating with technology platforms, such as Spotify, to establish a responsible, artist-first framework for AI development." |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $3.28 | $3.54 | -7.5% | $5.23B | 19 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $3.50 | $3.61 | -3.1% | $5.24B | 10 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $11.86 | $12.91 | -8.2% | $19.51B | 29 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $15.24 | $15.73 | -3.1% | $22.42B | 28 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | 1 | 45.3% | ±2.7% |
| 2026-11-13 | 8 | 39.5% | ±5.0% |
| 2026-11-20 | 15 | 39.2% | ±6.6% |
| 2026-11-27 | 22 | 36.7% | ±7.3% |
| 2026-12-04 | 29 | 37.8% | ±8.7% |
| 2026-12-11 | 36 | 38.3% | ±9.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 43 | 38.3% | ±10.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 71 | 37.5% | ±13.3% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2026 | $2.48 | $2.84 | Miss −12.7% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $2.61 | $2.80 | Miss −6.8% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $3.45 | $2.92 | Beat +18.2% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $4.43 | $2.84 | Beat +56.0% | — |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | 6-K | Current report (foreign issuer) · period ended Sep 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026066889/0001628280-26-066889-index.htm |
| 2026-10-22 | 6-K | Current report (foreign issuer) · period ended Oct 22, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000114036126040435/0001140361-26-040435-index.htm |
| 2026-09-03 | 6-K | Current report (foreign issuer) · period ended Sep 3, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000114036126035575/0001140361-26-035575-index.htm |
| 2026-08-20 | 6-K | Current report (foreign issuer) · period ended Aug 20, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000114036126033885/0001140361-26-033885-index.htm |
| 2026-08-04 | 6-K | Current report (foreign issuer) · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000162828026052543/0001628280-26-052543-index.htm |
| 2026-08-04 | 6-K | Current report (foreign issuer) · period ended Aug 4, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1639920/000114036126031044/0001140361-26-031044-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.