# Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/STX · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX), nexqual.com/STX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 642.14 (-7.86% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 696.89 · day 629–672.77 · 52w 217.67–1,145 · market cap $146B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 3, 2026): revenue $12.2B, net income $3.18B (26.1% margin), free cash flow $3.10B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 45.9x (avg 49.4x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 33.8x, net debt $1.90B.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.96 on a 1–5 scale) (26 analysts), mean target USD 1,116.58 (range 700–1,600).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +185.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +748.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-27, EPS estimate USD 7.4, revenue estimate $4.14B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | FY2026 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $11.7B | $7.38B | $6.55B | $9.10B | $12.2B | $12.2B |
| Gross profit | $3.47B | $1.35B | $1.54B | $3.20B | $5.56B | — |
| Operating income | $1.96B | -$342M | $452M | $1.89B | $4.09B | $4.09B |
| Net income | $1.65B | -$529M | $335M | $1.47B | $3.18B | $3.18B |
| EPS (diluted) | $7.36 | -$2.56 | $1.58 | $6.77 | $13.90 | — |
| Free cash flow | $1.28B | $626M | $664M | $818M | $3.10B | $3.10B |
| Gross margin | 29.7% | 18.3% | 23.4% | 35.2% | 45.6% | — |
| Operating margin | 16.8% | -4.6% | 6.9% | 20.8% | 33.6% | 33.6% |
| Net margin | 14.1% | -7.2% | 5.1% | 16.1% | 26.1% | 26.1% |
| Revenue growth | +9.2% | -36.7% | -11.3% | +38.9% | +34.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $615M | $786M | $1.36B | $891M | $1.70B | — |
| Total debt | $5.65B | $5.52B | $5.73B | $5.05B | $3.60B | — |
Fiscal years end Jul. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 3, 2026)
P/E 45.9x · P/S 12.0x · EV/EBITDA 33.8x · EV/Sales 12.1x · P/FCF 47.0x · P/B 67.4x · FCF yield 2.13% · Earnings yield 2.18% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.43% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.12% · Net debt $1.90B · EV $148B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Jul 2026 61.6x, Jun 2025 21.3x, Jun 2024 65.4x.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.96 on a 1–5 scale), 26 analysts; mean target USD 1,116.58 (low 700, high 1,600).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | B of A Securities | Target raised | Buy | $1150 → $1200 |
| 2026-10-20 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $1187 → $1200 |
| 2026-10-16 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $1180 → $865 |
| 2026-07-30 | Argus Research | Target raised | Buy | $750 → $900 |
| 2026-07-30 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $1000 → $1250 |
| 2026-07-29 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $1035 → $1187 |
| 2026-07-29 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $1095 → $1240 |
| 2026-07-29 | TD Cowen | Target raised | Buy | $850 → $1000 |
| 2026-07-29 | Susquehanna | Target raised | Neutral | $775 → $875 |
| 2026-07-29 | Wedbush | Target raised | Outperform | $825 → $1000 |
| 2026-07-29 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $1100 → $1180 |
| 2026-07-29 | Cantor Fitzgerald | Reiterated | Overweight | $1300 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +185.3% | +748.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +186.3% | +53.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 75.9% | 48.7% |
| Max drawdown | -41.5% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -53.4% (Dec 2021→Oct 2022) |

## Peers (Computer Hardware)
WDC (Western Digital Corporation) USD 354.19 -6.43% · SNDK (Sandisk Corporation) USD 1,260.93 -8.51% · ANET (Arista Networks, Inc.) USD 171.07 -7.19% · DELL (Dell Technologies Inc.) USD 452.95 -6.78% · P (Everpure, Inc.) USD 121.2 -7.43% · HPQ (HP Inc.) USD 33.76 +7.79%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/STX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in STX's own 10-K filed 2026-08-04 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1137789/000113778926000159/stx-20260703.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Competitor | Western Digital (WDC) | "Our global competitors include HDD manufacturers such as Western Digital Corporation and Toshiba Electronics Devices & Storage Corporation along with NAND flash suppliers that provide and enable alternative storage techn…" |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-07-03)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $1.91B | 52.5% | +63.8% |
| Singapore | $1.37B | 37.7% | +34.5% |
| The Netherlands | $352.0M | 9.7% | +34.9% |
| Other | $1.0M | 0.0% | +0.0% |
| Total revenue | $3.63B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-28)

- "The business outlook for the fiscal first quarter 2027 is based on our current assumptions and expectations; actual results may differ materially, as a result of, among other things, the important factors discussed in the Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements section of this release."
- "Guidance regarding non-GAAP diluted EPS excludes known pre-tax charges related to estimated share-based compensation expenses of $0.26 per share."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $7.40 | $5.88 | +25.9% | $4.14B | 20 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $8.54 | $6.79 | +25.8% | $4.53B | 20 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2027-06-30) | $36.66 | $28.58 | +28.3% | $19.08B | 22 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2028-06-30) | $57.44 | $45.14 | +27.2% | $25.68B | 20 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-10-30 (includes earnings 2026-10-27): ±11.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±10%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 96.2% | ±11.4% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 83.2% | ±13.5% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 76.5% | ±15.0% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 75.6% | ±17.0% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 71.6% | ±17.9% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 69.1% | ±18.9% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 68.9% | ±21.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 66.6% | ±25.4% |