# Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/SW · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW), nexqual.com/SW" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 42.43 (+2.34% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 41.46 · day 40.95–42.52 · 52w 32.73–52.65 · market cap $22.3B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $31.3B, net income $497M (1.6% margin), free cash flow $1.01B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 44.8x (avg 35.9x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 8.5x, net debt $13.5B.
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold SW (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 2 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.69 on a 1–5 scale) (16 analysts), mean target USD 56.57 (range 46–69).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +1.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +3.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD 0.57, revenue estimate $8.28B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.5B | $12.1B | $21.1B | $31.2B | $31.3B |
| Gross profit | $3.27B | $3.05B | $4.20B | $6.04B | — |
| Operating income | $1.56B | $1.37B | $1.01B | $1.72B | $1.48B |
| Net income | $1.03B | $825M | $319M | $699M | $497M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.96 | $3.17 | $0.82 | $1.33 | — |
| Free cash flow | $503M | $630M | $17.0M | $1.20B | $1.01B |
| Gross margin | 24.2% | 25.3% | 19.9% | 19.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 11.5% | 11.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.7% |
| Net margin | 7.7% | 6.8% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 1.6% |
| Revenue growth | — | -10.5% | +74.6% | +47.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $841M | $1.00B | $855M | $892M | — |
| Total debt | — | $3.75B | $14.1B | $13.6B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 44.8x · P/S 0.7x · EV/EBITDA 8.5x · EV/Sales 1.1x · P/FCF 21.9x · P/B 1.2x · FCF yield 4.56% · Earnings yield 2.23% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 4.15% · Net debt $13.5B · EV $35.7B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 29.1x, Dec 2024 65.7x, Dec 2023 12.9x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold SW. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Ketterer | Causeway Capital Management | 7.53% | $696M | Reduced -3.4% |
| Harry Burn | Sound Shore | 2.61% | $84.9M | Added +21.6% |
| Van Den Berg Management I |  | 1.53% | $7.3M | Reduced -2.5% |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.69 on a 1–5 scale), 16 analysts; mean target USD 56.57 (low 46, high 69).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $60 → $55 |
| 2026-10-12 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $57 → $54 |
| 2026-10-02 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $57 → $54 |
| 2026-09-23 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $68 → $69 |
| 2026-08-27 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $57 → $58 |
| 2026-08-04 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $56 → $57 |
| 2026-08-04 | Barclays | Target raised | Overweight | $52 → $56 |
| 2026-07-31 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Overweight | $71 → $68 |
| 2026-07-30 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $56 → $60 |
| 2026-07-30 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $55 → $57 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $52 → $55 |
| 2026-07-28 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $65 → $71 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +1.6% | +3.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +1.6% | +0.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 43.7% | 41.5% |
| Max drawdown | -30.5% (Feb 2026→May 2026) | -52.8% (Jan 2022→Oct 2022) |

## Peers (Packaging & Containers)
PKG (Packaging Corporation of Americ) USD 248.92 +4.15% · AMCR (Amcor plc) USD 46.28 +2.23% · IP (International Paper Company) USD 33.68 +0.15% · BALL (Ball Corporation) USD 65.81 +2.59% · AVY (Avery Dennison Corporation) USD 184.66 +3.14% · CCK (Crown Holdings, Inc.) USD 119.26 +2.62%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/SW · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | $4.66B | 58.0% | +0.1% |
| Europe, MEA and APAC | $2.82B | 35.1% | +1.6% |
| LATAM | $559.0M | 7.0% | +8.5% |
| Total revenue | $8.03B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Packaging | $3.50B | 43.6% | -1.7% |
| Paper | $1.16B | 14.4% | +5.9% |
| Total revenue | $8.03B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 58% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Plans | $14.47B | 46.4% | +97.9% |
| Other Europe MEA & APAC | $7.17B | 23.0% | +15.6% |
| Other Americas | $3.38B | 10.8% | +45.1% |
| Mexico | $2.52B | 8.1% | +28.6% |
| Germany | $1.87B | 6.0% | +9.5% |
| France | $1.55B | 5.0% | +8.3% |
| Ireland | $226.0M | 0.7% | +31.4% |
| Total revenue | $31.18B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-29)

- "With input costs remaining elevated, especially freight, we currently expect third quarter Adjusted EBITDA 2 to be approximately $1.3 billion and for the full year Adjusted EBITDA 2 we expect to be in the range of $4.9 billion to $5.1 billion with good momentum through the latter half of 2026 and beyond."
- "Because such items cannot be reasonably predicted with the level of precision required, we are unable to provide an outlook for the comparable GAAP measure (net income). 2 Statements that are not historical facts, including statements about the beliefs and expectations of the management of Smurfit Westrock, are forward-looking statements."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.57 | $0.76 | -24.6% | $8.28B | 7 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.70 | $0.80 | -12.4% | $8.10B | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.72 | $2.15 | -20.0% | $32.20B | 7 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.55 | $3.36 | +5.6% | $34.61B | 13 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-28): ±11.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±7.8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 50.1% | ±11.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 43.4% | ±13.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 41.6% | ±15.9% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 42.2% | ±23.0% |