# TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/TDG · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG), nexqual.com/TDG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 1,141.74 (+1.09% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 1,129.38 · day 1,105.26–1,144.41 · 52w 1,071.25–1,463.03 · market cap $63.1B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 27, 2026): revenue $10.0B, net income $2.13B (21.3% margin), free cash flow $1.93B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 29.6x (avg 40.8x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 18.5x, net debt $30.1B.
- 6 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold TDG (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 3 reduced, 2 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 15 Form 4 filings, $123M; 4 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($45.1M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 15 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.35 on a 1–5 scale) (23 analysts), mean target USD 1,414.3 (range 1,100–1,745).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -15.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +111.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 12.21, revenue estimate $2.95B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.80B | $5.43B | $6.58B | $7.94B | $8.83B | $10.0B |
| Gross profit | $2.51B | $3.10B | $3.84B | $4.67B | $5.31B | — |
| Operating income | $1.69B | $2.21B | $2.92B | $3.53B | $4.17B | $4.61B |
| Net income | $680M | $866M | $1.30B | $1.71B | $2.07B | $2.13B |
| EPS (diluted) | $10.41 | $13.40 | $22.03 | $25.62 | $32.08 | — |
| Free cash flow | $808M | $829M | $1.24B | $1.88B | $1.82B | $1.93B |
| Gross margin | 52.4% | 57.1% | 58.3% | 58.8% | 60.1% | — |
| Operating margin | 35.2% | 40.8% | 44.4% | 44.5% | 47.2% | 46.0% |
| Net margin | 14.2% | 16.0% | 19.7% | 21.6% | 23.5% | 21.3% |
| Revenue growth | -6.0% | +13.2% | +21.3% | +20.6% | +11.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $4.79B | $3.00B | $3.47B | $6.26B | $2.81B | — |
| Total debt | $19.9B | $19.5B | $19.5B | $24.5B | $29.4B | — |
Fiscal years end Sep. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 27, 2026)
P/E 29.6x · P/S 6.3x · EV/EBITDA 18.5x · EV/Sales 9.3x · P/FCF 32.8x · FCF yield 3.05% · Earnings yield 3.37% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 8.39% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.86% · Net debt $30.1B · EV $93.2B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Sep 2025 37.0x, Sep 2024 48.1x, Sep 2023 37.2x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
6 of 80 tracked investors hold TDG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AltaRock Partners |  | 27.51% | $1.17B | Reduced -3.7% |
| Triple Frond Partners |  | 12.67% | $142M | Unchanged |
| Bryan Lawrence | Oakcliff Capital | 11.99% | $32.2M | Unchanged |
| Vulcan Value Partners |  | 6.91% | $227M | Reduced -7.5% |
| Daniel Loeb | Third Point | 2.27% | $105M | Added +216.0% |
| Stephen Mandel | Lone Pine Capital | 0.23% | $38.0M | Reduced -20.0% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
11 of 15 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Reiss Joel | Co-Chief Operating Officer | 4,100 | $4.6M | 53.2% | Yes | Routine (sold in Jun & Jul & Aug & Sep & Oct & Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-09-15 | Reiss Joel | Co-Chief Operating Officer | 3,900 | $4.3M | 52% | Yes | Routine (sold in Jun & Jul & Aug & Sep & Oct & Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-18 | Howley W Nicholas | Director | 10,132 | $12.5M | 32% | Yes | Routine (sold in Jan & Feb & May & Jun & Jul & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | Reiss Joel | Co-Chief Operating Officer | 3,900 | $4.8M | 52% | Yes | Routine (sold in Jun & Jul & Aug & Sep & Oct & Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-20 | Howley W Nicholas | Director | 10,132 | $12.3M | 32% | Yes | Routine (sold in Jan & Feb & May & Jun & Jul & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-15 | Reiss Joel | Co-Chief Operating Officer | 414 | $510K | 10.3% | Yes | Routine (sold in Jun & Jul & Aug & Sep & Oct & Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-15 | Reiss Joel | Co-Chief Operating Officer | 3,486 | $4.2M | 46.5% | Yes | Routine (sold in Jun & Jul & Aug & Sep & Oct & Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-18 | Howley W Nicholas | Director | 10,132 | $13.4M | 32% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Feb & May & Jun & Jul & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-18 | Howley W Nicholas | Director | 10,132 | $13.4M | 32% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Feb & May & Jun & Jul & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-18 | Howley W Nicholas | Director | 10,132 | $13.4M | 32% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Feb & May & Jun & Jul & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-15 | Reiss Joel | Co-Chief Operating Officer | 3,900 | $5.0M | 52% | No | Routine (sold in Jun & Jul & Aug & Sep & Oct & Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-18 | Howley W Nicholas | Director | 10,132 | $12.0M | 32% | Yes | Routine (sold in Jan & Feb & May & Jun & Jul & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15 | Reiss Joel | Co-Chief Operating Officer | 3,900 | $4.5M | 52% | Yes | Routine (sold in Jun & Jul & Aug & Sep & Oct & Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-04-20 | Howley W Nicholas | Director | 10,132 | $12.8M | 32% | Yes | Routine (sold in Jan & Feb & May & Jun & Jul & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-04-15 | Reiss Joel | Co-Chief Operating Officer | 3,900 | $5.0M | 52% | Yes | Routine (sold in Jun & Jul & Aug & Sep & Oct & Nov & Dec each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.35 on a 1–5 scale), 23 analysts; mean target USD 1,414.3 (low 1,100, high 1,745).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Morgan Stanley | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $1400 → $1300 |
| 2026-10-15 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Sector Perform | $1350 → $1200 |
| 2026-10-12 | Goldman Sachs | Target lowered | Buy | $1972 → $1745 |
| 2026-10-09 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $1450 → $1300 |
| 2026-09-30 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $1450 → $1210 |
| 2026-09-28 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $1525 → $1400 |
| 2026-09-17 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $1450 → $1415 |
| 2026-09-16 | RBC Capital | Reiterated | Sector Perform | $1350 |
| 2026-09-15 | Guggenheim | Initiated | Neutral |  |
| 2026-08-05 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $1585 → $1695 |
| 2026-08-05 | Stifel | Downgrade | Buy → Hold | $1525 → $1405 |
| 2026-07-15 | Morgan Stanley | Downgrade | Overweight → Equal-Weight | $1680 → $1345 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -15.4% | +111.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -15.5% | +16.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 26.8% | 26.8% |
| Max drawdown | -25.8% (Jan 2026→Sep 2026) | -27.8% (Jul 2025→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Aerospace & Defense)
HONA (Honeywell Aerospace Inc.) USD 163.02 +0.34% · NOC (Northrop Grumman Corporation) USD 552.35 +2.42% · HWM (Howmet Aerospace Inc.) USD 193.29 -7.14% · LHX (L3Harris Technologies, Inc.) USD 254.23 +2.70% · GD (General Dynamics Corporation) USD 350.79 +1.76% · HEI (Heico Corporation) USD 300.02 +0.57%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/TDG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in TDG's own 10-K filed 2025-11-12 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1260221/000126022125000081/tdg-20250930.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Boeing (BA) | "Our sales to manufacturers of large commercial aircraft, such as Boeing, Airbus, and related OEM suppliers, as well as manufacturers of business jets have historically experienced periodic downturns." |
| Supplier | Airbus | "Our sales to manufacturers of large commercial aircraft, such as Boeing, Airbus, and related OEM suppliers, as well as manufacturers of business jets have historically experienced periodic downturns." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-27)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Power & Control | $1.51B | 55.1% | +32.5% |
| Airframe | $1.19B | 43.3% | +12.1% |
| Non-aviation | $46.0M | 1.7% | +15.0% |
| Total revenue | $2.74B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $5.54B | 62.7% | +10.0% |
| Non Us | $3.30B | 37.3% | +13.3% |
| Total revenue | $8.83B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-09-30: 10% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2025-11-12).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "At the mid-point, we are increasing guidance for sales by $150 million, EBITDA As Defined by $100 million, and adjusted EPS by $1.52."
- "Additionally, we are shifting our market channel guidance upward to reflect our latest market growth expectations." The guidance excludes any contribution from the pending acquisition of P&I."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $12.21 | $11.64 | +4.9% | $2.95B | 20 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $9.71 | $9.81 | -1.0% | $2.64B | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-09-30) | $41.28 | $40.05 | +3.0% | $10.53B | 22 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-09-30) | $48.63 | $46.90 | +3.7% | $11.75B | 20 |