# The Timken Company (TKR)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/TKR · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, The Timken Company (TKR), nexqual.com/TKR" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 108.4 (-5.71% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 114.97 · day 106.93–113 · 52w 73.62–146.37 · market cap $7.51B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $4.76B, net income $259M (5.4% margin), free cash flow $386M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 29.0x (avg 16.5x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 12.4x, net debt $1.65B.
- 3 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold TKR (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 1 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $10.0M; 5 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($10.0M); 3 by opportunistic insiders (3 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.25 on a 1–5 scale) (12 analysts), mean target USD 144.2 (range 130–160).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +41.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +64.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 1.48, revenue estimate $1.21B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.13B | $4.50B | $4.77B | $4.57B | $4.58B | $4.76B |
| Gross profit | $1.10B | $1.29B | $1.51B | $1.44B | $1.39B | — |
| Operating income | $513M | $607M | $657M | $611M | $541M | $502M |
| Net income | $369M | $407M | $394M | $353M | $288M | $259M |
| EPS (diluted) | $4.79 | $5.48 | $5.47 | $4.99 | $4.11 | — |
| Free cash flow | $239M | $285M | $357M | $306M | $406M | $386M |
| Gross margin | 26.7% | 28.6% | 31.6% | 31.5% | 30.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 12.4% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 13.4% | 11.8% | 10.5% |
| Net margin | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% |
| Revenue growth | +17.6% | +8.8% | +6.1% | -4.1% | +0.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | — | $332M | $419M | $373M | $364M | — |
| Total debt | $1.42B | $1.92B | $2.15B | $2.05B | $1.90B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 29.0x · P/S 1.6x · EV/EBITDA 12.4x · EV/Sales 1.9x · P/FCF 19.5x · P/B 2.4x · FCF yield 5.13% · Earnings yield 3.44% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.32% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.79% · Net debt $1.65B · EV $9.16B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 20.5x, Dec 2024 14.3x, Dec 2023 14.7x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
3 of 80 tracked investors hold TKR. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Den Berg Management I |  | 1.72% | $8.2M | Reduced -5.3% |
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.03% | $20.7M | Added +54.9% |
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | <0.01% | $291K | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 5 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Kyle Richard G | Director | 13,637 | $1.7M | 6.9% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-05 | Rajendra Ajita G | Director | 8,450 | $1.1M | 29.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-27 | Kyle Richard G | Director | 8,448 | $1.1M | 4.1% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-08 | Kyle Richard G | Director | 37,181 | $4.4M | 15.3% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-08 | Timken John M Jr | Director | 15,000 | $1.7M | 2.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.25 on a 1–5 scale), 12 analysts; mean target USD 144.2 (low 130, high 160).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-12 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $160 → $140 |
| 2026-10-01 | Oppenheimer | Reiterated | Outperform | $150 |
| 2026-09-01 | B of A Securities | Upgrade | Neutral → Buy | $129 → $135 |
| 2026-08-11 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | Outperform | $158 → $157 |
| 2026-07-21 | Oppenheimer | Target raised | Outperform | $147 → $150 |
| 2026-07-14 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $140 → $160 |
| 2026-07-13 | Keybanc | Target raised | Overweight | $140 → $160 |
| 2026-07-13 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Overweight | $150 → $160 |
| 2026-07-10 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Neutral | $128 → $142 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +41.4% | +64.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +41.6% | +10.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 33.6% | 29.6% |
| Max drawdown | -25.2% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -33.4% (May 2024→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Tools & Accessories)
TTC (Toro Company (The)) USD 105.32 +1.91% · LECO (Lincoln Electric Holdings, Inc.) USD 256.98 -2.34% · SWK (Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.) USD 98.97 +3.70% · RBC (RBC Bearings Incorporated) USD 478.03 -5.24% · SNA (Snap-On Incorporated) USD 356.46 -3.37% · KMT (Kennametal Inc.) USD 29.59 -4.89%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/TKR · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Engineered Bearings | $807.0M | 64.0% | +3.8% |
| Industrial Motion | $453.9M | 36.0% | +14.6% |
| Total revenue | $1.26B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $557.0M | 44.2% | +4.8% |
| Europe / Middle East / Africa | $318.1M | 25.2% | +11.7% |
| Asia-Pacific | $259.7M | 20.6% | +9.7% |
| Americas excluding the United States | $126.1M | 10.0% | +4.8% |
| Total revenue | $1.26B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 7% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-04).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "Timken is updating its 2026 outlook, with full-year earnings per diluted share now forecasted to be in the range of $3.75 to $4.05 and is raising its adjusted earnings per diluted share to the range of $6.05 to $6.35."
- "The company is planning for 2026 revenue to be up approximately 5.5 percent in total at the midpoint from 2025, a slight increase from its prior outlook of 5 percent growth at the midpoint. 2 Conference Call Information Timken will host a conference call today at 11 a.m."
- "Certain statements in this release (including statements regarding the company's forecasts, beliefs, estimates, plans and expectations) that are not historical in nature are "forward-looking" statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995."
- "In particular, the statements related to expectations regarding the company's future financial performance, including information under the heading "2026 Outlook," are forward-looking."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.48 | $1.51 | -1.9% | $1.21B | 12 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.28 | $1.34 | -4.8% | $1.15B | 12 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $6.27 | $6.16 | +1.8% | $4.85B | 12 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $7.28 | $7.23 | +0.6% | $5.00B | 12 |