# TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/TMC · data as of 2026-10-23 13:31 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, TMC the metals company Inc. (TMC), nexqual.com/TMC" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 2.45 (-0.81% today) · US market open, as of October 23, 2026 at 13:31 UTC; quotes may be delayed. Prev close 2.47 · day 2.44–2.48 · 52w 2.41–10.05 · market cap $1.08B · NMS

## Key facts
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $133K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($133K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.50 on a 1–5 scale) (6 analysts), mean target USD 10.9 (range 10–12.3).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -65.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -15.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-12, EPS estimate USD -0.05, revenue estimate $0K.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating income | -$150M | -$174M | -$72.4M | -$81.3M | -$140M | -$206M |
| Net income | -$141M | -$171M | -$73.8M | -$81.9M | -$320M | -$306M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.69 | $0.71 | $0.26 | $0.25 | $0.83 | — |
| Free cash flow | — | — | -$60.2M | -$44.0M | -$43.1M | -$43.8M |
| Cash + short-term investments | $84.9M | $46.9M | $6.8M | $3.5M | $118M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
FCF yield -4.05% · Earnings yield -28.28%

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | May Brendan | Director | 20,768 | $133K | 9.7% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.50 on a 1–5 scale), 6 analysts; mean target USD 10.9 (low 10, high 12.3).

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -65.7% | -15.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -65.8% | -3.3% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 89.8% | 101.2% |
| Max drawdown | -74.0% (Jan 2026→Oct 2026) | -85.9% (Nov 2021→Dec 2022) |

## Peers (Other Industrial Metals & Mining)
NEXA (Nexa Resources S.A.) USD 11.28 +1.08% · SSMR (Sunshine Silver Mining & Refini) USD 13.17 -0.83% · ALM (Almonty Industries Inc.) USD 8.64 -1.26% · SKE (Skeena Resources Limited) USD 28.54 -0.70% · USAR (USA Rare Earth, Inc.) USD 9.49 -1.45% · MTRN (Materion Corporation) USD 217.53 -0.73%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/TMC · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in TMC's own 10-K filed 2026-03-31 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1798562/000110465926037863/tmc-20251231x10k.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Pacific Metals | "PAMCO: In November 2022, we entered into a non-binding memorandum of understanding ("MoU") with PAMCO of Japan under which PAMCO conducted a prefeasibility study of processing nodules in PAMCO's Hachinohe facility, which…" |
| Customer | Deep Ocean Mining | "PAMCO: In November 2022, we entered into a non-binding memorandum of understanding ("MoU") with PAMCO of Japan under which PAMCO conducted a prefeasibility study of processing nodules in PAMCO's Hachinohe facility, which…" |
| Customer | CRU International | "Metallurgical test work, market studies by CRU International Limited, value-in-use studies by SINTEF and initial engagement with customers indicate that this manganese silicate product will be a premium product with high…" |
| Partner | NORI and Allseas Group | "We expect that the definitive agreement with Allseas will extend our exclusive use agreement with respect to the Hidden Gem." |
| Partner | Allseas Investments | "On September 9, 2024, we entered into a Working Capital Loan Agreement with Allseas Investments, a company related to Allseas." |
| Partner | Nauru Ocean Resources | "As part of the ESIA we conducted for offshore operations in the NORI Area D in partnership with world leading deep-sea research institutions and contractors, we also assessed the impacts of the NORI Area D Project on mar…" |
| Partner | Low Carbon Royalties | "Barron and Shesky violated Section 20(a) of the Exchange Act, by making false and/or misleading statements and/or failing to disclose information regarding the classification of the non-financial asset received from our …" |
| Partner | Kingston Process Metallurgy | "In November 2025, we announced that we had successfully produced battery-grade, high-purity manganese sulfate from our nodule-derived manganese silicate product during bench scale trials at our partner KPM's operating fa…" |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-13)

- "Based on NOAA guidance, the Company continues to expect the permit in advance of targeted Q4 2027 offshore collection system commissioning; the rigor of NOAA's review supports the permit's long-term durability and legal defensibility and reinforces the high standards applicable to all applicants ·"
- "Allseas continued engineering, project management and vessel-use activities during the second quarter of 2026 under its definitive agreement with TMC to develop, commission and operate the Hidden Gem commercial nodule collection system, designed for a nameplate capacity of 3.0 million wet tonnes per annum ·"
- "The commercial system is expected to have a nameplate production capacity of 3.0 million wet tonnes of nodules per annum, with commissioning targeted to begin in Q4 2027, subject to regulatory approvals."
- "If both repurchase transactions are executed, TMCR's remaining gross overriding royalty on the NORI project revenue will be 0.5%."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.05 | $-0.05 | +0.0% | $0 | 1 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.07 | $-0.07 | +0.0% | $0 | 1 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.40 | $-0.32 | +27.0% | $0 | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-0.24 | $-0.18 | +33.3% | $21.9M | 3 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-13 (includes earnings 2026-11-12): ±18.6%; earnings reaction alone ±7.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±8%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 93.3% | ±12.2% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 89.4% | ±14.4% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 95.6% | ±18.6% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 93.8% | ±21.0% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 93.3% | ±23.2% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 89.6% | ±24.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 88.8% | ±30.0% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 89.9% | ±34.2% |