# Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (TMCI)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/TMCI · data as of 2026-10-29 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Treace Medical Concepts, Inc. (TMCI), nexqual.com/TMCI" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 5.06 (+4.76% on the day) · last close of Oct 29, 2026; US market after hours, not a live price. Prev close 4.83 · day 4.9–5.24 · 52w 1.17–6.65 · market cap $329M · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $205M, net income -$59.5M (-29.0% margin), free cash flow -$25.0M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 5 Form 4 filings, $1.4M; 5 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.20 on a 1–5 scale) (5 analysts), mean target USD 5.5 (range 4.5–7).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -20.3% vs S&P 500 +14.4%; 5Y -78.1% vs S&P 500 +79.1%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-06, EPS estimate USD -0.25, revenue estimate $47.7M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $94.4M | $142M | $187M | $209M | $213M | $205M |
| Gross profit | $77.5M | $116M | $152M | $168M | $170M | — |
| Operating income | -$16.5M | -$34.8M | -$51.4M | -$55.7M | -$54.2M | -$53.7M |
| Net income | -$20.6M | -$42.8M | -$49.5M | -$55.7M | -$59.0M | -$59.5M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.43 | -$0.77 | -$0.81 | -$0.90 | -$0.93 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$19.9M | -$45.5M | -$46.0M | -$48.8M | -$29.5M | -$25.0M |
| Gross margin | 82.1% | 82.0% | 81.2% | 80.4% | 79.8% | — |
| Operating margin | -17.5% | -24.6% | -27.5% | -26.6% | -25.5% | -26.2% |
| Net margin | -21.8% | -30.2% | -26.5% | -26.6% | -27.7% | -29.0% |
| Revenue growth | +64.6% | +50.2% | +31.9% | +11.9% | +1.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $106M | $81.3M | $123M | $75.7M | $48.4M | — |
| Total debt | $29.4M | $52.7M | $53.0M | $53.3M | $57.3M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 1.6x · EV/Sales 1.7x · P/B 4.9x · FCF yield -7.61% · Earnings yield -18.09% · Net debt $13.6M · EV $343M

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
5 purchases, $1.4M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20…2026-08-24 | Treace John T. | Chief Executive Officer | 55,944 | $247K | 4.41 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-10…2026-06-11 | Treace John T. | Chief Executive Officer | 52,317 | $211K | 4.03 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-01 | Treace John T. | Chief Executive Officer | 50,000 | $178K | 3.56 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-26…2026-05-28 | Treace John T. | Chief Executive Officer | 115,520 | $341K | 2.95 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-12…2026-05-14 | Treace John T. | Chief Executive Officer | 153,763 | $376K | 2.44 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.20 on a 1–5 scale), 5 analysts; mean target USD 5.5 (low 4.5, high 7).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Hold | $4 → $5 |
| 2026-07-16 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Hold | $2 → $4 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-30) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -20.3% | -78.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.4% | +79.1% |
| Per year | -20.4% | -26.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 89.4% | 84.1% |
| Max drawdown | -81.8% (Nov 2025→Mar 2026) | -95.6% (Apr 2023→Mar 2026) |

## Peers (Medical Devices)
INSP (Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.) USD 71.18 +0.30% · ESTA (Establishment Labs Holdings Inc) USD 68.41 -0.81% · BFLY (Butterfly Network, Inc.) USD 7.51 -3.84% · UFPT (UFP Technologies, Inc.) USD 293.3 +2.55% · TMDX (TransMedics Group, Inc.) USD 67.12 +0.33% · ALMR (Alamar Biosciences, Inc.) USD 34.04 -0.76%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/TMCI · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in TMCI's own 10-K filed 2026-02-27 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1630627/000119312526079167/tmci-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | SLR Investment Corp. (SLRC) | "Net cash provided by financing activities for the year ended December 31, 2025 was $2.1 million, consisting primarily of $59.3 million of net cash proceeds from the new term loan agreement with SLR Investment Corp. ("SLR…" |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-07)

- "The Company is raising its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to be in the range of $204 million to $212 million, representing a decline of 4% to 0% compared to full-year 2025."
- "This compares to previous revenue guidance of $202 million to $212 million."
- "The Company is updating its expectation of a loss in Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $3.0 million to $5.0 million for full year 2026, as compared to previous guidance of a loss in the range of $4.0 million to $6.0 million."
- "The Company reported a loss of $3.9 million in the full-year 2025.* The Company reiterates its expectation for a reduction in cash usage of approximately 50% for full-year 2026 as compared to the full year 2025."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.25 | $-0.23 | −$0.02 | $47.7M | 1 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.11 | $-0.08 | −$0.03 | $67.3M | 1 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.85 | $-0.90 | +$0.05 | $207.5M | 5 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-0.85 | $-0.90 | +$0.05 | $221.7M | 1 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-12-18 (includes earnings 2026-11-06): ±25.7%; last 8 reports averaged ±13.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-12-18 | 50 | 124.2% | ±25.7% |
| 2027-03-19 | 141 | 109.1% | ±59.9% |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | −$0.20 | −$0.30 | Beat +33.3% | +6.6% |
| May 8, 2026 | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | −$0.12 | −$0.31 | Beat +61.3% | +1.0% |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.08 | −$0.14 | Beat +42.9% | +29.3% |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.08 | −$0.14 | Beat +42.9% | -21.0% |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | −$0.08 | −$0.14 | Beat +42.9% | -3.6% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | −$0.22 | −$0.27 | Beat +18.5% | -28.6% |
| Aug 7, 2025 | — | — | — | — | +12.1% |
| May 8, 2025 | — | — | — | — | -5.3% |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Schedule 13G/A | Armistice Capital, LLC, Steven Boyd: 9.8% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1630627/000117266126003617/0001172661-26-003617-index.htm |
| 2026-08-12 | Schedule 13G/A | John T. Treace: 19.2% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1630627/000119312526347227/0001193125-26-347227-index.htm |
| 2026-08-07 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1630627/000163062726000018/0001630627-26-000018-index.htm |
| 2026-08-07 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1630627/000163062726000017/0001630627-26-000017-index.htm |
| 2026-07-30 | Schedule 13G/A | BlackRock, Inc.: 1.5% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1630627/000201238326003113/0002012383-26-003113-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.