# TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/TMDX · data as of 2026-10-23 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX), nexqual.com/TMDX" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 70.74 (-1.83% on the day) · last close of Oct 23, 2026; US market after hours, not a live price. Prev close 72.06 · day 69.76–72.63 · 52w 60.11–156 · market cap $2.45B · NGM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $668M, net income $152M (22.7% margin), free cash flow $79.0M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 16.2x (avg 43.9x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 20.6x, net cash $16.9M.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $722K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($722K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $109K; 1 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.08 on a 1–5 scale) (13 analysts), mean target USD 98.73 (range 65–125).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -45.8% vs S&P 500 +13.4%; 5Y +157.9% vs S&P 500 +76.9%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.29, revenue estimate $178M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $31.4M | $93.5M | $242M | $442M | $605M | $668M |
| Gross profit | $21.2M | $65.3M | $154M | $262M | $363M | — |
| Operating income | -$39.4M | -$31.4M | -$28.7M | $37.5M | $109M | $81.6M |
| Net income | -$44.2M | -$36.2M | -$25.0M | $35.5M | $190M | $152M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.60 | -$1.23 | -$0.77 | $1.01 | $4.87 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$32.4M | -$57.7M | -$165M | -$80.9M | $134M | $79.0M |
| Gross margin | 67.4% | 69.8% | 63.8% | 59.4% | 59.9% | — |
| Operating margin | -125.6% | -33.6% | -11.9% | 8.5% | 17.9% | 12.2% |
| Net margin | -140.9% | -38.8% | -10.4% | 8.0% | 31.4% | 22.7% |
| Revenue growth | +10.7% | +197.8% | +158.5% | +82.7% | +37.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $92.5M | — | — | $337M | $489M | — |
| Total debt | $35.2M | $58.7M | $447M | $450M | $463M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 16.2x · P/S 3.7x · EV/EBITDA 20.6x · EV/Sales 3.6x · P/FCF 31.0x · P/B 4.7x · FCF yield 3.22% · Earnings yield 6.18% · Net cash $16.9M · EV $2.44B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 25.9x, Dec 2024 61.9x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | Gunderson Thomas J. | Director | 9,624 | $722K | 36.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $109K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Weill David | Director | 1,336 | $109K | 81.63 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.08 on a 1–5 scale), 13 analysts; mean target USD 98.73 (low 65, high 125).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Canaccord Genuity | Target lowered | Buy | $95 → $94 |
| 2026-10-07 | Barclays | Initiated | Overweight | $120 |
| 2026-09-08 | TD Cowen | Reiterated | Buy | $120 |
| 2026-08-05 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $80 → $77 |
| 2026-08-05 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Overweight | $120 → $100 |
| 2026-08-03 | Needham | Target lowered | Buy | $142 → $106 |
| 2026-07-28 | UBS | Initiated | Neutral | $80 |
| 2026-07-06 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | Outperform | $100 → $90 |
| 2026-07-01 | TD Cowen | Reiterated | Buy | $120 |
| 2026-06-30 | Canaccord Genuity | Maintained | Buy | $124 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-24) | 5Y (from 2021-10-25) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -45.8% | +157.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.4% | +76.9% |
| Per year | -45.9% | +20.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 58.6% | 69.7% |
| Max drawdown | -58.8% (Dec 2025→May 2026) | -67.4% (Aug 2024→Jan 2025) |

## Peers (Medical Devices)
NEOG (Neogen Corporation) USD 12.19 +1.75% · UFPT (UFP Technologies, Inc.) USD 295.78 -0.52% · AXGN (AxoGen, Inc.) USD 38.06 +3.76% · INSP (Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.) USD 71.11 -2.13% · ALMR (Alamar Biosciences, Inc.) USD 30.69 +3.26% · ESTA (Establishment Labs Holdings Inc) USD 63.8 +0.44%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/TMDX · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in TMDX's own 10-K filed 2026-02-24 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1756262/000119312526067032/tmdx-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Fresenius Kabi Austria | "For example, each of Fresenius Kabi Austria GmbH and Fresenius Kabi AB, which we refer to collectively as Fresenius, is our single-source supplier of OCS Solutions for the OCS Lung and the OCS Heart, respectively." |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Product | $111.2M | 58.5% | +15.7% |
| Service | $78.8M | 41.5% | +28.6% |
| Service Unrelated To OCS Transplant | $1.0M | 0.5% | +0.0% |
| Total revenue | $189.9M | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "TransMedics is raising the low end of its full-year 2026 revenue guidance to a range of $737 million to $757 million."
- "This guidance excludes any revenue attributable to the recent strategic investment in PAD Aviation service GmbH, assumes no incremental revenue from the ENHANCE Part B and DENOVO clinical trials, and represents approximately 22% to 25% growth compared to the company's prior year revenue."
- "TransMedics' full year 2026 revenue guidance as reported on May 5, 2026 was previously in the range of $727 million to $757 million."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.29 | $0.39 | -24.8% | $178.1M | 10 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.50 | $0.61 | -18.5% | $201.3M | 9 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.51 | $1.77 | -14.7% | $742.2M | 10 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.25 | $2.77 | -18.5% | $874.7M | 10 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±17.9%; earnings reaction alone ±14.9%; last 8 reports averaged ±10.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 65.2% | ±7.2% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 113.8% | ±17.9% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 98.1% | ±18.8% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 88.9% | ±19.6% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 85.1% | ±21.0% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 81.5% | ±22.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 73.6% | ±22.9% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 65.8% | ±25.1% |