# Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/TOL · data as of 2026-10-22 20:02 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL), nexqual.com/TOL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 141.08 (+4.47% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 135.05 · day 133.95–141.12 · 52w 123.15–168.36 · market cap $13.0B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jul 31, 2026): revenue $10.8B, net income $1.20B (11.1% margin), free cash flow $1.09B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 10.8x (avg 8.5x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- 4 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold TOL (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 2 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 4 Form 4 filings, $13.6M; 4 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($13.6M); 2 by opportunistic insiders (2 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.14 on a 1–5 scale) (21 analysts), mean target USD 168.5 (range 118–195).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +4.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +145.8% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-08-18, EPS estimate USD 4.89, revenue estimate $3.52B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.79B | $10.3B | $9.99B | $10.8B | $11.0B | $10.8B |
| Gross profit | $1.94B | $2.49B | $2.63B | $3.02B | $2.75B | — |
| Operating income | $1.02B | $1.51B | $1.72B | $2.04B | $1.72B | $1.49B |
| Net income | $834M | $1.29B | $1.37B | $1.57B | $1.35B | $1.20B |
| EPS (diluted) | $6.63 | $10.90 | $12.36 | $15.01 | $13.49 | — |
| Free cash flow | $1.24B | $915M | $1.19B | $937M | $1.03B | $1.09B |
| Gross margin | 22.1% | 24.2% | 26.4% | 27.9% | 25.1% | — |
| Operating margin | 11.6% | 14.7% | 17.3% | 18.8% | 15.7% | 13.8% |
| Net margin | 9.5% | 12.5% | 13.7% | 14.5% | 12.3% | 11.1% |
| Revenue growth | +24.2% | +16.9% | -2.7% | +8.5% | +1.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.64B | $1.35B | $1.30B | $1.30B | $1.26B | — |
Fiscal years end Oct. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jul 31, 2026)
P/E 10.8x · P/S 1.2x · P/FCF 11.9x · P/B 1.5x · FCF yield 8.39% · Earnings yield 9.22% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 0.75% · Buyback yield (TTM) 5.24%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Oct 2025 10.0x, Oct 2024 9.8x, Oct 2023 5.7x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
4 of 80 tracked investors hold TOL. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greenhaven Associates |  | 10.71% | $928M | Reduced -0.3% |
| David Rolfe | Wedgewood Partners | 3.08% | $14.9M | Added +2.6% |
| Viking Global | Viking Global Investors | 0.05% | $18.1M | New position |
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | <0.01% | $989K | Added +131.6% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 4 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | East Stephen F. | Director | 800 | $109K | 6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-18 | Parahus Robert | President & COO | 7,500 | $1.1M | 24.2% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-06-18 | Yearley Douglas C. Jr. | Executive Chairman | 77,957 | $12.2M | 16.2% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-04-15 | East Stephen F. | Director | 1,000 | $140K | 6.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.14 on a 1–5 scale), 21 analysts; mean target USD 168.5 (low 118, high 195).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | StoneX | Initiated | Buy | $165 |
| 2026-10-15 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $179 → $168 |
| 2026-10-15 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $158 → $148 |
| 2026-10-06 | Melius Research | Initiated | Buy | $179 |
| 2026-10-06 | Barclays | Target lowered | Underweight | $122 → $118 |
| 2026-10-01 | Morgan Stanley | Initiated | Overweight | $159 |
| 2026-09-25 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | Outperform | $191 → $184 |
| 2026-08-28 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Outperform | $161 → $170 |
| 2026-08-21 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $176 → $179 |
| 2026-08-20 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $165 → $170 |
| 2026-08-20 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $187 → $195 |
| 2026-08-20 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | Outperform | $185 → $191 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +4.0% | +145.8% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +4.0% | +19.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 34.3% | 33.4% |
| Max drawdown | -25.1% (Feb 2026→May 2026) | -44.0% (Dec 2021→Jun 2022) |

## Peers (Residential Construction)
NVR (NVR, Inc.) USD 6,110.63 +3.57% · LEN (Lennar Corporation) USD 84.45 +8.69% · PHM (PulteGroup, Inc.) USD 119.48 +5.84% · IBP (Installed Building Products, In) USD 198.13 +5.46% · SKY (Champion Homes, Inc.) USD 79.72 +5.27% · DHI (D.R. Horton, Inc.) USD 147.66 +6.25%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/TOL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)


Other companies that name TOL in their own reports (relationship from TOL's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | Millrose Properties, Inc. (MRP) | 10-K 2026-03-02 | "Kennedy Lewis's in-house land banking servicer includes professionals with deep industry experience working at national homebuilders, including Lennar, Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc., Beazer Homes USA In…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-07-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South | $655.8M | 24.7% | -14.5% | $90.8M | 13.8% |
| Mountain | $613.2M | 23.1% | -20.8% | $93.3M | 15.2% |
| Pacific | $556.7M | 20.9% | +0.4% | $105.4M | 18.9% |
| North | $450.4M | 16.9% | +2.7% | $83.2M | 18.5% |
| Mid-Atlantic | $381.7M | 14.4% | -6.8% | $46.1M | 12.1% |
| Corporate costs (not allocated) | — | — | — | -$59.8M | — |
| Total revenue | $2.66B | 100% | — | $359.2M | 13.5% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-07-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home sales | $2.65B | 99.8% | -7.9% |
| Land sales and other | $6.3M | 0.2% | -90.2% |
| Management Fee | $953,000 | 0.0% | +3.0% |
| Total revenue | $2.66B | 100% | — |

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-10-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mountain | $2.98B | 27.1% | +13.7% |
| South | $2.72B | 24.8% | -3.4% |
| Pacific | $2.12B | 19.4% | -6.9% |
| North | $1.67B | 15.3% | +12.4% |
| Mid-Atlantic | $1.47B | 13.4% | -10.1% |
| Total revenue | $10.97B | 100% | — |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-10-31) | $4.89 | $5.05 | -3.3% | $3.52B | 16 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-01-31) | $1.81 | $1.87 | -3.2% | $1.92B | 11 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-10-31) | $12.71 | $12.77 | -0.5% | $10.84B | 18 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-10-31) | $13.62 | $14.15 | -3.7% | $10.94B | 18 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 36.5% | ±8.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 36.6% | ±11.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 34.3% | ±13.1% |
| 2027-03-19 | 147 | 34.7% | ±17.6% |
| 2027-06-17 | 237 | 36.1% | ±23.0% |
| 2027-09-17 | 329 | 35.5% | ±26.6% |