# Toast, Inc. (TOST)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/TOST · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Toast, Inc. (TOST), nexqual.com/TOST" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 33.42 (+2.70% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 32.54 · day 32.58–33.44 · 52w 22.26–39.73 · market cap $19.3B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $6.80B, net income $486M (7.1% margin), free cash flow $576M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 39.7x (avg 598.4x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends).
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold TOST (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 26 Form 4 filings, $23.3M; 11 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($2.8M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 13 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.16 on a 1–5 scale) (31 analysts), mean target USD 38.81 (range 25–45).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -13.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -32.6% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.37, revenue estimate $1.97B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.71B | $2.73B | $3.87B | $4.96B | $6.15B | $6.80B |
| Gross profit | $314M | $511M | $834M | $1.19B | $1.59B | — |
| Operating income | -$228M | -$384M | -$287M | $16.0M | $292M | $431M |
| Net income | -$487M | -$275M | -$246M | $19.0M | $342M | $486M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$1.68 | -$0.72 | -$0.47 | $0.03 | $0.56 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$10.0M | -$172M | $93.0M | $306M | $608M | $576M |
| Gross margin | 18.4% | 18.7% | 21.6% | 24.0% | 25.9% | — |
| Operating margin | -13.4% | -14.1% | -7.4% | 0.3% | 4.7% | 6.3% |
| Net margin | -28.6% | -10.1% | -6.4% | 0.4% | 5.6% | 7.1% |
| Revenue growth | +107.2% | +60.2% | +41.5% | +28.3% | +24.1% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.27B | $1.02B | $1.12B | $1.42B | $1.99B | — |
| Total debt | $0K | — | — | — | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 39.7x · P/S 2.8x · P/FCF 33.5x · P/B 9.4x · FCF yield 2.98% · Earnings yield 2.52% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.91%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 63.0x, Dec 2024 1133.8x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold TOST. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ValueAct Capital |  | 6.98% | $393M | Added +9.6% |
| Richard Pzena | Pzena Investment Management | <0.01% | $304K | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
15 of 26 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Vassil Jonathan | Chief Revenue Officer | 7,623 | $230K | 4.5% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-10-02 | Gomez Elena | President, CFO | 11,886 | $349K | 6.5% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Feb & Apr & May & Jul & Aug & Oct & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-10-02 | Fredette Stephen | President | 9,368 | $275K | 0.3% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Feb & Apr & May & Jul & Aug & Oct & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-10-02 | Narang Aman | CEO | 14,713 | $432K | 3.7% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Feb & Apr & May & Jul & Aug & Oct & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-10-02 | Elworthy Brian R | General Counsel | 6,507 | $191K | 2.6% | No | Routine (sold in Jan & Feb & Apr & May & Jul & Aug & Oct & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-10-02 | Vassil Jonathan | Chief Revenue Officer | 13,465 | $400K | 7.7% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-09-02 | Vassil Jonathan | Chief Revenue Officer | 14,280 | $484K | 8.5% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-21 | Vassil Jonathan | Chief Revenue Officer | 85,280 | $3.1M | 35.6% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-19 | Vassil Jonathan | Chief Revenue Officer | 13,931 | $502K | 8.3% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-11 | Vassil Jonathan | Chief Revenue Officer | 13,797 | $497K | 8.2% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-07…2026-08-10 | Narang Aman | CEO | 161,948 | $5.7M | 30.4% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Routine (sold in Jan & Feb & Apr & May & Jul & Aug & Oct & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-07…2026-08-10 | Gomez Elena | President, CFO | 7,924 | $280K | 4.7% | Yes (adopted December 12, 2025) | Routine (sold in Jan & Feb & Apr & May & Jul & Aug & Oct & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-05…2026-08-06 | Narang Aman | CEO | 138,052 | $4.9M | 20.6% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Routine (sold in Jan & Feb & Apr & May & Jul & Aug & Oct & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-05…2026-08-06 | Gomez Elena | President, CFO | 17,076 | $602K | 9.2% | Yes (adopted December 12, 2025) | Routine (sold in Jan & Feb & Apr & May & Jul & Aug & Oct & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-05 | Vassil Jonathan | Chief Revenue Officer | 4,700 | $169K | 3% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-04 | Niola Rossana | Principal Accounting Officer | 2,298 | $77K | 34.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-03 | Vassil Jonathan | Chief Revenue Officer | 14,280 | $470K | 8.5% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-13…2026-07-14 | Vassil Jonathan | Chief Revenue Officer | 11,170 | $337K | 6.8% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-07 | Vassil Jonathan | Chief Revenue Officer | 3,150 | $95K | 2% | Yes (adopted March 13, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-02 | Vassil Jonathan | Chief Revenue Officer | 6,647 | $192K | 4.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.16 on a 1–5 scale), 31 analysts; mean target USD 38.81 (low 25, high 45).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $39 → $38 |
| 2026-09-02 | BNP Paribas | Downgrade | Outperform → Neutral | $38 → $35 |
| 2026-08-31 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Sector Perform | $36 → $44 |
| 2026-08-12 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Buy | $33 → $39 |
| 2026-08-10 | DA Davidson | Target raised | Neutral | $30 → $34 |
| 2026-08-06 | Bernstein | Target raised | Outperform | $39 → $45 |
| 2026-08-05 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $34 → $39 |
| 2026-08-05 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $36 → $39 |
| 2026-08-05 | Oppenheimer | Target raised | Outperform | $36 → $38 |
| 2026-08-05 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Sector Perform | $31 → $36 |
| 2026-08-05 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Market Perform | $30 → $35 |
| 2026-08-05 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $36 → $40 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -13.9% | -32.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -13.9% | -7.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 47.4% | 56.5% |
| Max drawdown | -42.8% (Nov 2025→May 2026) | -77.8% (Nov 2021→Jun 2022) |

## Peers (Software - Infrastructure)
NTNX (Nutanix, Inc.) USD 69.55 -0.80% · KSPI (Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz - ) USD 90.53 -3.19% · CHKP (Check Point Software Technologi) USD 151.98 +5.96% · GEN (Gen Digital Inc.) USD 24.89 +3.19% · RBRK (Rubrik, Inc.) USD 120.75 +0.31% · IOT (Samsara Inc.) USD 43.78 +1.25%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/TOST · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in TOST's own 10-K filed 2026-02-18 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1650164/000165016426000057/tost-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Visa (V) | "We rely on our relationships with financial institutions and third-party payment processors to access the payment card networks, such as Visa and Mastercard, which enable the acceptance of credit cards and debit cards by…" |
| Supplier | Mastercard (MA) | "We rely on our relationships with financial institutions and third-party payment processors to access the payment card networks, such as Visa and Mastercard, which enable the acceptance of credit cards and debit cards by…" |
| Customer | Amazon (AMZN) | "We primarily rely on Amazon Web Services to deliver our services to customers on our platform, and any disruption of or interference with our use of Amazon Web Services could adversely affect our business, financial cond…" |
| Partner | Utah-chartered and Federal Deposit Insurance | "For example, one of our bank partners, which is a Utah-chartered and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, or the FDIC,-insured industrial bank, offers qualified customers working capital loans, which we service." |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Financial technology solutions | $1.57B | 82.3% | +23.0% |
| Subscription services | $290.0M | 15.2% | +27.8% |
| Hardware and professional services | $48.0M | 2.5% | +2.1% |
| Total revenue | $1.91B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "For the full year ending December 31, 2026, Toast expects to report: • Non-GAAP subscription services and financial technology solutions gross profit in the range of $2,325 million to $2,355 million (23%-25% growth compared to 2025, up from 21-23% growth). • Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $805 million to $825 million (up from $790 million to $810 million)."
- "This outlook reflects our strategic decision to re-invest the $10 million tariff refund received in Q2."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.37 | $0.36 | +4.2% | $1.97B | 14 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.34 | $0.35 | -0.6% | $1.95B | 14 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.40 | $1.35 | +4.0% | $7.47B | 16 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.76 | $1.69 | +4.1% | $8.85B | 16 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±11.5%; earnings reaction alone ±8.6%; last 8 reports averaged ±8.9%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 47.5% | ±5.6% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 70.8% | ±11.5% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 64.5% | ±12.6% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 57.0% | ±12.8% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 54.4% | ±13.6% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 53.3% | ±14.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 50.8% | ±15.9% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 50.8% | ±19.4% |