# Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/TRN · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Trinity Industries, Inc. (TRN), nexqual.com/TRN" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 25.82 (+2.34% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 25.23 · day 25.2–25.95 · 52w 24.28–38.31 · market cap $2.06B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $2.04B, net income $339M (16.6% margin), free cash flow $343M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 6.1x (avg 17.0x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 6.8x, net debt $5.07B.
- Earnings quality: non-operating income -$273M vs operating income $755M over the last four quarters; P/E excluding non-operating income ≈3.8x (estimate: non-operating income taxed at the company's 24.8% effective rate).
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold TRN (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $502K; 0 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($0K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale) (2 analysts), mean target USD 31 (range 30–32).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -4.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +6.1% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-29, EPS estimate USD 0.27, revenue estimate $498M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.52B | $1.98B | $2.98B | $3.08B | $2.16B | $2.04B |
| Gross profit | $355M | $368M | $527M | $668M | $573M | — |
| Operating income | $257M | $334M | $417M | $492M | $649M | $755M |
| Net income | $182M | $60.1M | $106M | $138M | $253M | $339M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.75 | $0.71 | $1.27 | $1.64 | $3.05 | — |
| Free cash flow | $588M | -$50.8M | $254M | $520M | $314M | $343M |
| Gross margin | 23.4% | 18.6% | 17.7% | 21.7% | 26.6% | — |
| Operating margin | 16.9% | 16.9% | 14.0% | 16.0% | 30.1% | 37.0% |
| Net margin | 12.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 11.7% | 16.6% |
| Revenue growth | -13.4% | +30.4% | +50.9% | +3.2% | -30.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $167M | $79.6M | $106M | $228M | $201M | — |
| Total debt | — | $5.61B | $5.75B | $5.69B | $5.44B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 6.1x · P/E ex non-operating (est.) ≈3.8x · P/S 1.0x · EV/EBITDA 6.8x · EV/Sales 3.5x · P/FCF 6.0x · P/B 1.8x · FCF yield 16.65% · Earnings yield 16.50% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 4.80% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.56% · Net debt $5.07B · EV $7.13B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 8.7x, Dec 2024 21.4x, Dec 2023 20.9x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold TRN. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | 0.03% | $16.0M | Added +11.5% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Poet Kevin | EVP Operations & Support Svcs | 17,000 | $502K | 19.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.00 on a 1–5 scale), 2 analysts; mean target USD 31 (low 30, high 32).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Susquehanna | Target lowered | Neutral | $35 → $34 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -4.3% | +6.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -4.3% | +1.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 35.0% | 37.6% |
| Max drawdown | -34.0% (Jul 2026→Oct 2026) | -38.5% (Mar 2022→Sep 2022) |

## Peers (Railroads)
GBX (Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (The) USD 38.78 +2.89% · FSTR (L.B. Foster Company) USD 35.33 -1.40% · WAB (Westinghouse Air Brake Technolo) USD 276.47 -4.32% · CNI (Canadian National Railway Compa) USD 124.93 +2.36% · NSC (Norfolk Southern Corporation) USD 338.23 +3.09% · CP (Canadian Pacific Kansas City Li) USD 90.62 +2.86%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/TRN · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in TRN's own 10-K filed 2026-02-19 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/99780/000009978026000014/trn-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Napier Park Railcar Lease Fund | "In December 2025, TILC completed a Sale and Exchange Agreement (the "Exchange Agreement") with Napier Park Railcar Lease Fund LLC ("Napier Park"), a fund owned by Napier Park Global Capital, one of our railcar investment…" |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leasing & Services | $281.1M | 57.9% | -7.0% | $224.3M | 79.8% |
| Rail Products Group | $258.5M | 53.3% | -11.9% | $3.4M | 1.3% |
| Total revenue | $485.1M | 100% | — | $199.8M | 41.2% |
The lines above cover 111.2% of total revenue.

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leasing & Services | $280.6M | 57.8% | -7.1% |
| — Leasing & Management (part of Leasing & Services) | $206.0M | 42.5% | -11.8% |
| — Maintenance Services Domain (part of Leasing & Services) | $63.4M | 13.1% | +6.9% |
| — Digital Logistics Services (part of Leasing & Services) | $11.7M | 2.4% | +21.9% |
| Rail Products Domain | $230.1M | 47.4% | -12.4% |
| Manufacturing | $204.5M | 42.2% | +0.2% |
| Parts Components | $28.4M | 5.9% | -7.5% |
| Total revenue | $485.1M | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 153.3% of total revenue.

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 19% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-19).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-30)

- "With a meaningful increase in delivery volumes in the second half of the year, our full-year margin outlook of 5% to 6% is unchanged." "The industrial indicators underpinning our markets, including manufacturing PMI, carload growth, and customer inquiry levels, have each trended positively, and we believe the freight cycle is turning in rail's favor." Ms."
- "Savage concluded, "With our leasing platform performing well, our balance sheet in strong shape, and our full-year EPS guidance of $2.20 to $2.40 intact, we are confident in Trinity's ability to continue generating above-market returns for our shareholders." (1) Excludes items outside our core business operations 1 Consolid"

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.27 | $0.24 | +10.4% | $498.4M | 2 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.36 | $0.38 | -5.3% | $561.3M | 2 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.20 | $2.27 | -3.3% | $2.04B | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.15 | $2.30 | -6.5% | $2.26B | 2 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-20 (includes earnings 2026-10-29): ±10.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±8.7%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 45.9% | ±10.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 38.7% | ±12.2% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 35.2% | ±13.9% |
| 2027-04-16 | 175 | 36.5% | ±20.2% |