# Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/TSCO · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Tractor Supply Company (TSCO), nexqual.com/TSCO" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 34.73 (+6.24% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 32.69 · day 29.9–35.03 · 52w 28.36–58.21 · market cap $18.1B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 27, 2026): revenue $15.8B, net income $1.88B (11.9% margin), free cash flow $307M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 9.6x (avg 23.9x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 10.8x, net debt $1.92B.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold TSCO (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $652K; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 1 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.40 on a 1–5 scale) (30 analysts), mean target USD 36.7 (range 31–43).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -36.9% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -8.5% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-22, EPS estimate USD 0.4, revenue estimate $4.02B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $12.7B | $14.2B | $14.6B | $14.9B | $15.5B | $15.8B |
| Gross profit | $4.48B | $4.97B | $5.23B | $5.40B | $5.65B | — |
| Operating income | $1.31B | $1.43B | $1.48B | $1.47B | $1.47B | $1.34B |
| Net income | $997M | $1.09B | $1.11B | $1.10B | $1.10B | $1.88B |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.72 | $1.94 | $2.02 | $2.04 | $2.06 | — |
| Free cash flow | $510M | $584M | $580M | $637M | $740M | $307M |
| Gross margin | 35.2% | 35.0% | 35.9% | 36.3% | 36.4% | — |
| Operating margin | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% |
| Net margin | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 11.9% |
| Revenue growth | +19.9% | +11.6% | +2.5% | +2.2% | +4.3% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $878M | $203M | $397M | $251M | $194M | — |
| Total debt | $986M | $1.16B | $1.73B | $1.83B | $1.76B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 27, 2026)
P/E 9.6x · P/S 1.1x · EV/EBITDA 10.8x · EV/Sales 1.3x · P/FCF 58.9x · P/B 6.9x · FCF yield 1.70% · Earnings yield 10.39% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 2.74% · Buyback yield (TTM) 2.46% · Net debt $1.92B · EV $20.0B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 24.3x, Dec 2024 26.0x, Dec 2023 21.3x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold TSCO. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jensen Investment Management |  | 0.07% | $2.8M | Reduced -8.1% |

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 purchases, $652K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Morris Edna | Director | 1,560 | $51K | 32.44 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-04 | Lawton Iii Harry A | President & CEO | 15,600 | $502K | 32.15 | Routine (sold in Feb each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-08-03 | Hawaux Andre J | Director | 3,150 | $100K | 31.83 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.40 on a 1–5 scale), 30 analysts; mean target USD 36.7 (low 31, high 43).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Neutral | $31 → $33 |
| 2026-10-19 | Wells Fargo | Target raised | Overweight | $35 → $36 |
| 2026-10-19 | Truist Securities | Target raised | Hold | $32 → $33 |
| 2026-10-13 | Citigroup | Target raised | Buy | $37 → $38 |
| 2026-07-28 | Argus Research | Target lowered | Buy | $50 → $40 |
| 2026-07-25 | Telsey Advisory Group | Target lowered | Outperform | $40 → $38 |
| 2026-07-24 | Mizuho | Target lowered | Neutral | $32 → $28 |
| 2026-07-24 | Goldman Sachs | Target lowered | Buy | $43 → $38 |
| 2026-07-24 | Piper Sandler | Target lowered | Neutral | $32 → $31 |
| 2026-07-24 | Guggenheim | Target lowered | Buy | $50 → $40 |
| 2026-07-20 | Baird | Target lowered | Outperform | $50 → $38 |
| 2026-07-17 | Raymond James | Target lowered | Outperform | $48 → $40 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -36.9% | -8.5% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -37.0% | -1.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 33.9% | 28.6% |
| Max drawdown | -47.4% (Oct 2025→Jun 2026) | -51.0% (Aug 2025→Jun 2026) |

## Peers (Specialty Retail)
BBY (Best Buy Co., Inc.) USD 99.83 +6.07% · DKS (Dick's Sporting Goods Inc) USD 148.78 +4.80% · GME (GameStop Corporation) USD 25.39 -3.42% · FIVE (Five Below, Inc.) USD 225.87 +0.79% · CASY (Caseys General Stores, Inc.) USD 713.65 +2.66% · ULTA (Ulta Beauty, Inc.) USD 635.01 +4.62%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/TSCO · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in TSCO's own 10-K filed 2026-02-19 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/916365/000091636526000014/tsco-20251227.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Petsense | "We use our websites, TractorSupply.com, Petsense.com, and Allivet.com, and our mobile application as both a sales channel for our products and as a method of providing product, project, and other relevant information to …" |
| Customer | Allivet | "We use our websites, TractorSupply.com, Petsense.com, and Allivet.com, and our mobile application as both a sales channel for our products and as a method of providing product, project, and other relevant information to …" |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-22)

- "Tractor Supply is reaffirming its financial outlook for fiscal year 2026."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.40 | $0.41 | -2.3% | $4.02B | 13 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $0.33 | $0.33 | +0.0% | $3.72B | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.86 | $1.89 | -1.3% | $16.02B | 10 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $2.03 | $2.08 | -2.1% | $16.65B | 14 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 37.0% | ±4.4% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 42.7% | ±6.9% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 41.2% | ±8.2% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 37.5% | ±9.9% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 35.0% | ±9.0% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 47.5% | ±13.0% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 38.9% | ±12.3% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 41.4% | ±15.9% |