# The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/TTD · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD), nexqual.com/TTD" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 13.16 (+4.53% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 12.59 · day 12.57–13.17 · 52w 11.62–55.11 · market cap $6.22B · NGM

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $2.99B, net income $407M (13.6% margin), free cash flow $863M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 15.3x (avg 131.2x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $1.1M; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.1M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Hold (mean 3.14 on a 1–5 scale) (36 analysts), mean target USD 13.53 (range 9–20).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -75.7% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -82.2% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 0.25, revenue estimate $651M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.20B | $1.58B | $1.95B | $2.44B | $2.90B | $2.99B |
| Gross profit | $975M | $1.30B | $1.58B | $1.97B | $2.28B | — |
| Operating income | $125M | $114M | $200M | $427M | $589M | $586M |
| Net income | $138M | $53.4M | $179M | $393M | $443M | $407M |
| EPS (diluted) | $0.28 | $0.11 | $0.36 | $0.78 | $0.90 | — |
| Free cash flow | $324M | $465M | $552M | $641M | $796M | $863M |
| Gross margin | 81.5% | 82.2% | 81.2% | 80.7% | 78.6% | — |
| Operating margin | 10.4% | 7.2% | 10.3% | 17.5% | 20.3% | 19.6% |
| Net margin | 11.5% | 3.4% | 9.2% | 16.1% | 15.3% | 13.6% |
| Revenue growth | +43.1% | +31.9% | +23.3% | +25.6% | +18.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $959M | $1.45B | $1.38B | $1.92B | $1.30B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 15.3x · P/S 2.1x · P/FCF 7.2x · P/B 2.4x · FCF yield 13.87% · Earnings yield 6.54% · Buyback yield (TTM) 15.66%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 42.3x, Dec 2024 150.1x, Dec 2023 201.1x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | Jacobson Samantha | Director | 53,681 | $1.1M | 80.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 3.14 on a 1–5 scale), 36 analysts; mean target USD 13.53 (low 9, high 20).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $16 → $15 |
| 2026-09-18 | Guggenheim | Target raised | Neutral | $12 → $13 |
| 2026-09-09 | RBC Capital | Reiterated | Sector Perform | $15 |
| 2026-08-10 | DA Davidson | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral | $29 → $16 |
| 2026-08-10 | HSBC | Downgrade | Hold → Reduce | $10 |
| 2026-08-08 | Scotiabank | Target lowered | Sector Perform | $20 → $12 |
| 2026-08-07 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $28 → $16 |
| 2026-08-07 | Citigroup | Downgrade | Neutral → Sell | $21 → $11 |
| 2026-08-07 | Benchmark | Target lowered | Buy | $30 → $20 |
| 2026-08-07 | Guggenheim | Downgrade | Buy → Neutral | $25 → $12 |
| 2026-08-07 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Equal-Weight | $20 → $12 |
| 2026-08-07 | Needham | Target lowered | Buy | $25 → $19 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -75.7% | -82.2% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -75.8% | -29.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 57.9% | 67.0% |
| Max drawdown | -78.0% (Oct 2025→Oct 2026) | -91.4% (Dec 2024→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Advertising Agencies)
WPP (WPP plc) USD 26.71 +1.10% · MGNI (Magnite, Inc.) USD 23.13 -2.07% · LFTO (Liftoff Mobile, Inc.) USD 16.32 -1.03% · STGW (Stagwell Inc.) USD 8.99 +0.78% · DV (DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc.) USD 13.56 -0.00% · ZD (Ziff Davis, Inc.) USD 57.95 +1.61%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/TTD · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in TTD's own 10-K filed 2026-02-27 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1671933/000167193326000014/ttd-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Competitor | Alphabet (Google) (GOOGL) | "We compete with other demand-side platform providers, some of which are smaller, privately held companies and others are divisions of large, well-established companies such as Google and Amazon." |
| Competitor | Amazon (AMZN) | "We compete with other demand-side platform providers, some of which are smaller, privately held companies and others are divisions of large, well-established companies such as Google and Amazon." |

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNITED STATES | $2.48B | 85.5% | +16.1% |
| Non-US | $419.6M | 14.5% | +34.8% |
| Total revenue | $2.90B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 30% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-27).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "Financial Guidance: Third Quarter 2026 outlook summary: • Revenue at least $650 million • Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $160 million The Company has not provided an outlook for GAAP net income or reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA guidance to net income, the closest corresponding U.S."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.25 | $0.50 | -49.0% | $651.4M | 17 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.29 | $0.67 | -57.0% | $691.6M | 17 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.16 | $1.84 | -37.1% | $2.75B | 20 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.00 | $2.15 | -53.2% | $2.60B | 20 |