# TWFG, Inc. (TWFG)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/TWFG · data as of 2026-10-28 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, TWFG, Inc. (TWFG), nexqual.com/TWFG" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 27.28 (+0.11% on the day) · last close of Oct 28, 2026; US market closed, not a live price. Prev close 27.25 · day 26.02–27.69 · 52w 16.56–31.3 · market cap $351M · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $295M, net income $42.0M (14.2% margin), free cash flow $59.7M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 8.4x (avg 89.3x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 3.6x, net cash $70.7M.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold TWFG (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 1 added, 0 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 6 Form 4 filings, $3.4M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.88 on a 1–5 scale) (8 analysts), mean target USD 30.57 (range 26–34).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +12.2% vs S&P 500 +13.6%; 5Y +20.6% vs S&P 500 +79.8%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-04, EPS estimate USD 0.26, revenue estimate $78.7M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $154M | $172M | $204M | $249M | $295M |
| Operating income | $23.7M | $25.4M | $27.9M | $37.0M | $53.8M |
| Net income | $0K | $0K | $2.7M | $41.2M | $42.0M |
| EPS (diluted) | — | — | $0.19 | $0.53 | — |
| Free cash flow | $25.6M | $29.9M | $37.3M | $53.1M | $59.7M |
| Operating margin | 15.4% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 14.9% | 18.3% |
| Net margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 16.6% | 14.2% |
| Revenue growth | — | +11.8% | +18.4% | +22.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $22.3M | $39.3M | $196M | $156M | — |
| Total debt | — | $50.7M | $7.6M | $4.0M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 8.4x · P/S 1.2x · EV/EBITDA 3.6x · EV/Sales 0.9x · P/FCF 5.9x · P/B 7.6x · FCF yield 16.99% · Earnings yield 11.95% · Net cash $70.7M · EV $281M
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 10.6x, Dec 2024 168.1x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold TWFG. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francois Rochon | Giverny Capital | 0.53% | $15.7M | Added +18.2% |

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
6 purchases, $3.4M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Doak Michael | Director | 7,865 | $153K | 19.45 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-03…2026-06-04 | Doak Michael | Director | 33,994 | $638K | 18.77 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-01…2026-06-02 | Doak Michael | Director | 33,000 | $637K | 19.29 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-05-28…2026-05-29 | Doak Michael | Director | 22,330 | $421K | 18.87 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-05-22…2026-05-27 | Doak Michael | Director | 46,880 | $883K | 18.83 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-05-20…2026-05-21 | Doak Michael | Director | 33,283 | $621K | 18.65 | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.88 on a 1–5 scale), 8 analysts; mean target USD 30.57 (low 26, high 34).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $28 → $26 |
| 2026-08-19 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $27 → $28 |
| 2026-08-19 | Morgan Stanley | Upgrade | Equal-Weight → Overweight | $26 → $30 |
| 2026-08-12 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Market Perform | $26 → $29 |
| 2026-08-10 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $30 → $34 |
| 2026-08-07 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $30 → $34 |
| 2026-07-15 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $22 → $29 |
| 2026-07-13 | JP Morgan | Target raised | Neutral | $24 → $27 |
| 2026-07-13 | RBC Capital | Target raised | Outperform | $27 → $30 |
| 2026-07-08 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $26 → $30 |
| 2026-07-08 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Target raised | Market Perform | $23 → $26 |
| 2026-07-06 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Equal-Weight | $21 → $23 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-29) | 5Y (from 2024-07-15) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +12.2% | +20.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +13.6% | +79.8% |
| Per year | +12.2% | +8.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 46.1% | 44.4% |
| Max drawdown | -41.7% (Dec 2025→Feb 2026) | -50.8% (Nov 2024→Feb 2026) |

## Peers (Insurance Brokers)
TREE (LendingTree, Inc.) USD 26.52 +1.18% · AIFU (AIFU Inc.) USD 10.41 +2.66% · CRD-A (Crawford & Company) USD 12.34 -2.68% · GSHD (Goosehead Insurance, Inc.) USD 46.3 +0.33% · LIFE (Ethos Technologies Inc.) USD 42.83 +0.71% · NP (Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.) USD 29.48 +0.03%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/TWFG · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in TWFG's own 10-K filed 2026-03-10 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007596/000162828026016162/twfg-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | Continuing Pre-IPO | "TWFG Holding makes pro rata distributions to the other holders of LLC Units and us in an amount at least sufficient to allow us and the other holders of LLC Units to pay taxes allocable to our respective share of TWFG Ho…" |
| Partner | Griffin Highline Capital | "Michael Doak is one of our directors and is the Chief Executive Officer and Managing Partner of Griffin Highline Capital." |

Other companies that name TWFG in their own reports (relationship from TWFG's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | RENAISSANCERE HOLDINGS LTD (RNR-PG) | 10-K 2026-02-11 | "Additionally, we have a strategic investment in TWFG, which distributes personal and commercial insurance across the United States." |

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.26 | $0.24 | +6.2% | $78.7M | 8 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.24 | $0.24 | -0.9% | $74.5M | 7 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.17 | $1.02 | +14.5% | $315.5M | 8 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $1.18 | $1.12 | +5.7% | $365.8M | 8 |

## Earnings history and stock reaction
| Results filed | Quarter | EPS | Consensus | Surprise | Stock reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | Quarter ended Jun 30, 2026 | $0.38 | $0.25 | Beat +52.0% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Mar 31, 2026 | $0.29 | $0.20 | Beat +45.0% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Dec 31, 2025 | $0.30 | $0.19 | Beat +57.9% | — |
| — | Quarter ended Sep 30, 2025 | $0.23 | $0.19 | Beat +21.1% | — |
EPS as reported against the analyst consensus before the release; surprise uses the cent-rounded figures shown (in dollars when EPS and consensus have opposite signs). Stock reaction = close before the results to close after (the first close following a release after the bell or before the open).

## Recent SEC filings (last 120 days)
| Filed | Form | What it says | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Schedule 13G/A | Richard F. Bunch III, Michelle Caroline Bunch: 0.7% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007596/000202828226000007/0002028282-26-000007-index.htm |
| 2026-08-14 | Schedule 13G/A | BAMCO INC /NY/, Baron Capital Group, Inc.: 8.7% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007596/000101791826000062/0001017918-26-000062-index.htm |
| 2026-08-13 | 8-K | Entered a material agreement; New debt or off-balance-sheet obligation; Regulation FD disclosure — “On August 12, 2026, TWFG, Inc. (the "Company") entered into the Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the "Credit Agreement"), with TWFG Holding Company, LLC, as borrower (the "Borrower"), PNC Bank, National Association, as administrative agent, swingline loan lender and issuing lender, the other guarantors party thereto, and the lenders party thereto, which amended and restated the Company's existing credit agreement dated as of May 23, 2023, as amended on June 20, 2024. The Credit Agreement provides for a…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007596/000200759626000014/0002007596-26-000014-index.htm |
| 2026-08-12 | Schedule 13G/A | Capital International Investors: 0.0% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007596/000156223026000117/0001562230-26-000117-index.htm |
| 2026-08-06 | 10-Q | Quarterly report · period ended Jun 30, 2026 | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007596/000200759626000012/0002007596-26-000012-index.htm |
| 2026-08-05 | 8-K | Quarterly results | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007596/000200759626000011/0002007596-26-000011-index.htm |
| 2026-07-28 | Schedule 13G | Franklin Resources, Inc., Charles B. Johnson: 6.0% of shares, passive 5%+ holder | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007596/000003877726000211/0000038777-26-000211-index.htm |
| 2026-07-24 | 8-K | Director or executive officer change, or pay arrangement — “On July 21, 2026, Eugene N. Padgett, Chief Accounting Officer of TWFG, Inc. (the "Company"), informed the Company of his resignation from the Company, effective July 21, 2026. Mr. Padgett's resignation was not the result of any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to the Company's accounting practices, financial reporting, or operations. Upon the effectiveness of Mr. Padgett's resignation, the Company appointed Janice Zwinggi, the Company's Chief Financial Officer, to serve as the Company's Chief…” | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007596/000200759626000008/0002007596-26-000008-index.htm |
| 2026-07-08 | Schedule 13G/A | T. Rowe Price Investment Management, Inc.: 5.8% of shares, passive 5%+ holder (amended) | https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007596/000189761226000528/0001897612-26-000528-index.htm |
Source: SEC EDGAR. Quotes are the opening words of each item as filed.