# Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/TXRH · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Texas Roadhouse, Inc. (TXRH), nexqual.com/TXRH" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 172.78 (+2.96% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 167.82 · day 167.02–172.9 · 52w 153.83–216.3 · market cap $11.3B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $6.23B, net income $422M (6.8% margin), free cash flow $406M (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 26.9x (avg 26.7x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 15.9x, net cash $152M.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold TXRH (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 12 Form 4 filings, $5.3M; 10 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($2.2M); 1 by opportunistic insiders (1 outside 10b5-1 plans), 4 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 2.29 on a 1–5 scale) (28 analysts), mean target USD 207.46 (range 133–251).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -0.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +110.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD 1.46, revenue estimate $1.58B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.46B | $4.01B | $4.63B | $5.37B | $5.88B | $6.23B |
| Operating income | $297M | $320M | $354M | $517M | $475M | $483M |
| Net income | $245M | $270M | $314M | $444M | $414M | $422M |
| EPS (diluted) | $3.50 | $3.97 | $4.54 | $6.47 | $6.10 | — |
| Free cash flow | $268M | $266M | $218M | $399M | $342M | $406M |
| Operating margin | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% |
| Net margin | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% |
| Revenue growth | +44.4% | +15.9% | +15.4% | +16.0% | +9.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $336M | $174M | $104M | $245M | $135M | — |
| Total debt | $100M | $50.0M | $0K | — | $0K | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 26.9x · P/S 1.8x · EV/EBITDA 15.9x · EV/Sales 1.8x · P/FCF 27.9x · P/B 7.3x · FCF yield 3.58% · Earnings yield 3.72% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.66% · Buyback yield (TTM) 1.43% · Net cash $152M · EV $11.2B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 26.6x, Dec 2024 27.2x, Dec 2023 26.2x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold TXRH. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment | First Eagle Investment Management | <0.01% | $490K | Reduced -20.5% |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 of 12 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Marshall Lloyd Paul | CHIEF GROWTH OFFICER | 500 | $102K | 4.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-25 | Carroll Hugh J | Director | 650 | $133K | 18.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-21 | Morgan Gerald L. | CEO, EXECUTIVE VICE CHAIRMAN | 15,000 | $3.0M | 15.6% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | Humpich Keith | CHIEF ACCT & FIN SVCS OFFCR | 819 | $167K | 3.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | Epps Donna E | Director | 820 | $169K | 17% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-11 | Moore Gregory N | Director | 3,000 | $625K | 10% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-07-02 | Renfroe Sean G | GENERAL COUNSEL | 426 | $82K | 33.1% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-26 | Colson Christopher C. | CHIEF BUSINESS & ADMIN OFFICER | 499 | $89K | 3.3% | No | Routine (sold in Jan each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-18 | Abell Jane Grote | Director | 339 | $60K | 13.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-14 | Marshall Lloyd Paul | CHIEF GROWTH OFFICER | 1,000 | $178K | 8.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-11 | Warfield Curtis | Director | 2,640 | $483K | 33% | No | Routine (sold in Feb each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-11 | Moore Gregory N | Director | 1,250 | $223K | 4% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May each year 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 2.29 on a 1–5 scale), 28 analysts; mean target USD 207.46 (low 133, high 251).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $230 → $195 |
| 2026-10-15 | Morgan Stanley | Target raised | Overweight | $212 → $221 |
| 2026-10-15 | Stephens & Co. | Upgrade | Equal-Weight → Overweight | $205 |
| 2026-10-14 | Jefferies | Upgrade | Hold → Buy | $186 → $190 |
| 2026-10-06 | StoneX | Upgrade | Hold → Buy | $200 |
| 2026-10-05 | RBC Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $235 → $220 |
| 2026-10-05 | Evercore ISI Group | Upgrade | In-Line → Outperform | $220 → $200 |
| 2026-09-29 | JP Morgan | Target lowered | Neutral | $202 → $200 |
| 2026-09-25 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | In-Line | $200 → $220 |
| 2026-09-16 | Seaport Global | Initiated | Buy | $195 |
| 2026-08-10 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Neutral | $192 → $208 |
| 2026-08-07 | Citigroup | Target raised | Neutral | $193 → $209 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -0.4% | +110.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -0.4% | +16.1% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 30.2% | 27.0% |
| Max drawdown | -26.9% (Aug 2026→Oct 2026) | -24.6% (Aug 2026→Sep 2026) |

## Peers (Restaurants)
DPZ (Domino's Pizza Inc) USD 317.7 +2.11% · YUMC (Yum China Holdings, Inc.) USD 44.76 +0.67% · EAT (Brinker International, Inc.) USD 190.11 +1.09% · BROS (Dutch Bros Inc.) USD 41.75 -1.21% · CAVA (CAVA Group, Inc.) USD 54.68 -0.58% · JMKE (Jersey Mike's Subs Inc.) USD 17.69 +0.17%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/TXRH · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Food & Beverage | $1.67B | 99.6% | +11.2% |
| Franchise | $7.1M | 0.4% | -12.6% |
| Franchise Royalty | $6.6M | 0.4% | -12.2% |
| Franchise Fees | $508,000 | 0.0% | -17.0% |
| Total revenue | $1.68B | 100% | — |

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "Outlook ​ Comparable restaurant sales at company restaurants for the first five weeks of the third quarter of our 2026 fiscal year increased 6.2% compared to 2025."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.46 | $1.32 | +10.6% | $1.58B | 27 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.34 | $1.41 | -5.1% | $1.63B | 27 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $6.52 | $6.43 | +1.4% | $6.52B | 27 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $7.71 | $7.64 | +0.9% | $7.14B | 27 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±7.0%; earnings reaction alone ±4.7%; last 8 reports averaged ±4.4%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 32.3% | ±3.8% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 43.1% | ±7.0% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 38.3% | ±7.6% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 37.8% | ±8.5% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 35.4% | ±8.9% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 34.8% | ±9.7% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 34.4% | ±10.8% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 31.8% | ±12.2% |