# United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/UAL · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL), nexqual.com/UAL" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 102 (+0.32% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 101.67 · day 98–103.96 · 52w 84.64–138.77 · market cap $33.1B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Sep 30, 2026): revenue $65.6B, net income $3.58B (5.5% margin), free cash flow $1.12B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 9.3x (avg 8.8x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends), EV/EBITDA 5.4x, net debt $9.90B.
- 2 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold UAL (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 0 added, 1 reduced, 0 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 10 Form 4 filings, $38.4M; 8 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($31.2M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.92 on a 1–5 scale) (25 analysts), mean target USD 150.13 (range 98–203).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +6.6% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +118.3% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-20, EPS estimate USD 1.38, revenue estimate $18.6B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $24.6B | $45.0B | $53.7B | $57.1B | $59.1B | $65.6B |
| Operating income | -$1.02B | $2.34B | $4.21B | $5.10B | $4.71B | $4.92B |
| Net income | -$1.96B | $737M | $2.62B | $3.15B | $3.35B | $3.58B |
| EPS (diluted) | -$6.10 | $2.23 | $7.89 | $9.45 | $10.20 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$40.0M | $1.25B | -$260M | $3.83B | $2.56B | $1.12B |
| Operating margin | -4.1% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% |
| Net margin | -8.0% | 1.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% |
| Revenue growth | +60.4% | +82.5% | +19.5% | +6.2% | +3.5% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $18.4B | $16.4B | $14.4B | $14.5B | $12.2B | — |
| Total debt | $33.4B | $31.2B | $29.1B | $24.7B | $21.3B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Sep 30, 2026)
P/E 9.3x · P/S 0.5x · EV/EBITDA 5.4x · EV/Sales 0.7x · P/FCF 29.7x · P/B 1.9x · FCF yield 3.37% · Earnings yield 10.80% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.16% · Net debt $9.90B · EV $43.0B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 11.0x, Dec 2024 10.3x, Dec 2023 5.2x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
2 of 80 tracked investors hold UAL. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samantha McLemore | Patient Capital Management | 3.31% | $99.5M | Reduced -0.1% |
| Polen Capital | Polen Capital Management | 0.01% | $718K | New position |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
2 of 10 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Nocella Andrew P | EVP & Chief Commercial Officer | 5,000 | $585K | 2.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-04 | Nocella Andrew P | EVP & Chief Commercial Officer | 3,000 | $397K | 1.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-03 | Leskinen Michael D. | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | 10,000 | $1.3M | 17% | Yes (adopted April 30, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-28 | Nocella Andrew P | EVP & Chief Commercial Officer | 4,200 | $506K | 1.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-28 | Hart Brett J | President | 30,108 | $3.6M | 7.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-07-24 | Enqvist Torbjorn J | EVP & Chief Operations Officer | 20,000 | $2.4M | 13.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-21 | Kirby J Scott | Chief Executive Officer | 159,321 | $18.8M | 16.5% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-15…2026-06-16 | Kirby J Scott | Chief Executive Officer | 49,381 | $6.0M | 5.8% | Yes (adopted August 29, 2025) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-26 | Gebo Kate | EVP HR and Labor Relations | 40,000 | $4.2M | 23.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-01 | Nocella Andrew P | EVP & Chief Commercial Officer | 7,000 | $631K | 3.1% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.92 on a 1–5 scale), 25 analysts; mean target USD 150.13 (low 98, high 203).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $140 → $135 |
| 2026-10-22 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $160 → $155 |
| 2026-10-22 | Argus Research | Target lowered | Buy | $140 → $125 |
| 2026-10-22 | Susquehanna | Target lowered | Positive | $150 → $130 |
| 2026-10-16 | UBS | Target lowered | Buy | $146 → $139 |
| 2026-10-07 | Susquehanna | Target lowered | Positive | $165 → $150 |
| 2026-10-06 | Wells Fargo | Target lowered | Overweight | $165 → $160 |
| 2026-10-02 | TD Cowen | Target lowered | Buy | $192 → $167 |
| 2026-09-28 | BMO Capital | Target lowered | Outperform | $157.5 → $140 |
| 2026-09-24 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $137 → $146 |
| 2026-09-18 | Rothschild & Co | Target lowered | Buy | $165 → $150 |
| 2026-09-11 | Barclays | Target lowered | Overweight | $175 → $160 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +6.6% | +118.3% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +6.6% | +16.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 47.8% | 48.0% |
| Max drawdown | -29.8% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -47.1% (Feb 2025→Mar 2025) |

## Peers (Airlines)
RYAAY (Ryanair Holdings plc) USD 53.67 -0.79% · DAL (Delta Air Lines, Inc.) USD 79.26 +2.05% · LUV (Southwest Airlines Company) USD 42.03 +5.39% · AAL (American Airlines Group, Inc.) USD 12.6 +2.94% · CPA (Copa Holdings, S.A.) USD 134.86 -0.94% · ALK (Alaska Air Group, Inc.) USD 35.38 +5.49%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/UAL · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)


Other companies that name UAL in their own reports (relationship from UAL's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| partner | AZUL SA (AZUL) | 20-F 2026-04-03 | "We believe that our international flights and strategic partnerships with international carriers, including United and TAP, provide our Azul Fidelidade members with a broad range of attractive redempt…" |
| partner | REPUBLIC AIRWAYS HOLDINGS INC. (RJET) | 10-K 2026-03-19 | "Republic Airways subsequently expanded its partnership reach to Delta Air Lines in 2002 and United Airlines in 2004 and have operated under the same mission of unparalleled service each year." |
| supplier | SURF AIR MOBILITY INC. (SRFM) | 10-K 2026-03-12 | "Southern currently has interline agreements with major commercial airlines, including United Airlines, Inc., American Airlines, Inc., Alaska Airlines, Inc., Hawaiian Airlines, Inc, and Japan Airlines,…" |
| partner | Archer Aviation Inc. (ACHR) | 10-K 2026-03-02 | "We have also been continuing to advance our partnership with the Department of Defense ("DoD"), which started in 2021, on a series of projects through the United States Air Force's ("USAF") AFWERX pro…" |
| partner | Copa Holdings, S.A. (CPA) | 20-F 2026-02-26 | "Copa has a strategic alliance with United Airlines, or "UAL" or "United," that encompasses joint marketing strategies and code-sharing arrangements, among other things." |
| partner | Energy Transfer LP (ET) | 10-K 2026-02-19 | "The FERC stated it will address the application of the United Airlines decision to non-MLP partnership forms as those issues arise in subsequent proceedings." |
| partner | Sunoco LP (SUN) | 10-K 2026-02-19 | "The FERC stated it will address the application of the United Airlines decision to non-MLP partnership forms as those issues arise in subsequent proceedings." |
| partner | SKYWEST INC (SKYW) | 10-K 2026-02-17 | "Our capacity purchase agreements with United, Delta, American and Alaska require the respective major airline partner to pay for fuel costs, either directly to the fuel vendor or to reimburse us for t…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-09-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger revenue | $16.24B | 90.9% | +17.6% |
| Ancillary Services | $1.40B | 7.8% | +7.7% |
| Product and Service, Other | $1.11B | 6.2% | +13.0% |
| Cargo revenue | $529.0M | 3.0% | +22.7% |
| Total revenue | $17.88B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 107.8% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-10-20)

- "Management will also discuss certain business outlook items, including certain financial targets for the fourth quarter 2026 and beyond, during the quarterly earnings conference call."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.38 | $3.99 | -65.4% | $18.59B | 20 |
| Next quarter (ends 2027-03-31) | $0.09 | $1.42 | -93.3% | $16.68B | 11 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $7.17 | $10.36 | -30.8% | $68.65B | 23 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $11.98 | $15.46 | -22.5% | $73.33B | 23 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 59.0% | ±7.0% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 51.7% | ±8.4% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 53.4% | ±10.5% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 48.0% | ±10.8% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 46.0% | ±11.5% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 46.6% | ±12.8% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 46.1% | ±14.5% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 47.7% | ±18.3% |