# United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/UFCS · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, United Fire Group, Inc. (UFCS), nexqual.com/UFCS" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 57.99 (+1.19% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 57.31 · day 57.27–58.2 · 52w 29.85–58.2 · market cap $1.49B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.47B, net income $141M (9.6% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 10.6x (avg 10.0x at the last 2 fiscal year-ends), net debt $6.9M.
- 1 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold UFCS (13F, Q2 2026): 0 new, 0 added, 0 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filings, $543K; 1 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($543K); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 1 Form 4 filing, $204K; 1 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.50 on a 1–5 scale) (2 analysts), mean target USD 58.5 (range 57–60).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +90.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +198.6% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 1.19, revenue estimate $414M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.07B | $980M | $1.10B | $1.25B | $1.39B | $1.47B |
| Net income | $80.6M | $15.0M | -$29.7M | $62.0M | $118M | $141M |
| EPS (diluted) | — | $0.59 | -$1.18 | $2.39 | $4.48 | — |
| Net margin | 7.6% | 1.5% | -2.7% | 4.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% |
| Revenue growth | -0.2% | -8.1% | +11.7% | +14.4% | +10.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $132M | $96.7M | $102M | $201M | $156M | — |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | $146M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 10.6x · P/S 1.0x · EV/Sales 1.0x · P/B 1.5x · Earnings yield 9.46% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 1.24% · Net debt $6.9M · EV $1.50B
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 8.1x, Dec 2024 11.9x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
1 of 80 tracked investors hold UFCS. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | <0.01% | $346K | Unchanged |

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 1 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Carlton Scott L | Director | 9,777 | $543K | 4.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 purchase, $204K. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | Milligan George D | Director | 4,500 | $204K | 45.23 | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.50 on a 1–5 scale), 2 analysts; mean target USD 58.5 (low 57, high 60).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $57 → $60 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +90.2% | +198.6% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +90.7% | +24.4% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 30.8% | 36.5% |
| Max drawdown | -12.2% (May 2026→Jun 2026) | -48.0% (Jun 2022→Sep 2023) |

## Peers (Insurance - Property & Casualty)
HMN (Horace Mann Educators Corporati) USD 47.37 +2.20% · PRCH (Porch Group, Inc.) USD 17.94 -3.50% · HCI (HCI Group, Inc.) USD 206.68 +1.11% · SKWD (Skyward Specialty Insurance Gro) USD 62.16 +1.24% · SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings, Inc.) USD 27.75 +2.36% · LMND (Lemonade, Inc.) USD 45.41 +0.29%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/UFCS · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.19 | $1.26 | -5.6% | $413.5M | 2 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $1.35 | $1.15 | +17.4% | $431.0M | 2 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $4.99 | $3.58 | +39.2% | $1.60B | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $4.84 | $3.73 | +29.8% | $1.90B | 2 |