# Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/ULCC · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC), nexqual.com/ULCC" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 5.3 (+5.16% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 5.04 · day 4.81–5.34 · 52w 3.02–8.41 · market cap $1.22B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $4.15B, net income -$386M (-9.3% margin), free cash flow -$164M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 13 Form 4 filings, $87.6M; 12 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($87.6M); 2 by opportunistic insiders (2 outside 10b5-1 plans), 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Sell (mean 3.50 on a 1–5 scale) (12 analysts), mean target USD 6.33 (range 4–9).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +27.4% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -67.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-28, EPS estimate USD -0.06, revenue estimate $1.29B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.06B | $3.33B | $3.59B | $3.77B | $3.72B | $4.15B |
| Operating income | -$117M | -$45.0M | -$3.0M | $58.0M | -$149M | -$408M |
| Net income | -$102M | -$37.0M | -$11.0M | $85.0M | -$137M | -$386M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.48 | -$0.17 | -$0.05 | $0.37 | -$0.60 | — |
| Free cash flow | $189M | -$119M | -$312M | -$158M | -$600M | -$164M |
| Operating margin | -5.7% | -1.4% | -0.1% | 1.5% | -4.0% | -9.8% |
| Net margin | -5.0% | -1.1% | -0.3% | 2.3% | -3.7% | -9.3% |
| Revenue growth | +64.8% | +61.5% | +7.9% | +5.2% | -1.4% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $918M | $761M | $609M | $740M | $671M | — |
| Total debt | $423M | $431M | $474M | $507M | $620M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 0.3x · EV/Sales 0.2x · P/B 9.0x · FCF yield -13.44% · Earnings yield -31.64% · Net cash $444M · EV $776M
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2024 18.9x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
1 of 13 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Clerc Alexandre | SVP, Customers | 3,480 | $20K | 9.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-09-04 | Schuller Steve | SVP, Human Resources | 7,500 | $45K | 8.6% | Yes (adopted June 3, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-08-05 | Mitchell Mark Christopher | SVP & CFO | 125,000 | $1.0M | 69.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-04 | Diamond Howard | EVP, Legal & Corporate Affairs | 24,195 | $200K | 15.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2024) |
| 2026-08-04 | Wetzel Josh A | VP & CAO | 2,000 | $16K | 16.6% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-08-04 | Stedke Trevor J. | Sr. Vice President, Operations | 167,277 | $1.3M | 100% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-07-31…2026-08-04 | Clerc Alexandre | SVP, Customers | 10,210 | $76K | 21.4% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-03 | Schuller Steve | SVP, Human Resources | 10,000 | $76K | 10.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-07-09 | Group Holdings - Frontier Llc |  | 11,700,000 | $84.2M | 34% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-05 | Schuller Steve | SVP, Human Resources | 10,000 | $60K | 9.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-06-02 | Clerc Alexandre | SVP, Customers | 5,060 | $30K | 9.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-21 | Wetzel Josh A | VP & CAO | 13,500 | $64K | 52.8% | No | Opportunistic (traded every year 2023–2025, no repeating month) |
| 2026-05-07 | Stedke Trevor J. | Sr. Vice President, Operations | 83,110 | $450K | 33.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Sell (mean 3.50 on a 1–5 scale), 12 analysts; mean target USD 6.33 (low 4, high 9).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Susquehanna | Target lowered | Neutral | $7 → $6 |
| 2026-09-28 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | In-Line | $5 → $6 |
| 2026-09-24 | UBS | Target lowered | Neutral | $7 → $6 |
| 2026-09-11 | Barclays | Target lowered | Underweight | $7 → $5 |
| 2026-07-07 | Susquehanna | Target raised | Neutral | $4.5 → $7 |
| 2026-06-26 | Citigroup | Target raised | Neutral | $5 → $9 |
| 2026-06-25 | Barclays | Target raised | Underweight | $4 → $7 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +27.4% | -67.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +27.5% | -19.9% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 75.8% | 70.8% |
| Max drawdown | -52.5% (Feb 2026→Mar 2026) | -81.9% (Nov 2021→Aug 2024) |

## Peers (Airlines)
AZUL (Azul S.A.) USD 6 -4.15% · JBLU (JetBlue Airways Corporation) USD 2.65 -9.56% · RJET (Republic Airways Holdings Inc.) USD 17.19 +3.68% · ALGT (Allegiant Travel Company) USD 70.36 +0.44% · AERO (Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V) USD 15.21 -0.33% · VLRS (Controladora Vuela Compania de ) USD 5.69 +0.53%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/ULCC · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in ULCC's own 10-K filed 2026-02-18 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1670076/000167007626000020/fron-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Partner | CleanJoule | "As part of our efforts to decarbonize air transportation, in May 2023, we along with a consortium of other airlines, executed an agreement with CleanJoule, Inc., with a potential right to purchase domestic SAF from Clean…" |
| Competitor | Airbus | "See also "—We may be subject to competitive risks due to the long-term nature of our fleet and order book which commits us to Airbus aircraft and the engines available for such aircraft for a substantial period of time i…" |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passenger | $1.24B | 96.6% | +37.5% |
| — Fare (part of Passenger) | $613.0M | 47.9% | +76.1% |
| — Service fees (part of Passenger) | $266.0M | 20.8% | +5.6% |
| — Baggage (part of Passenger) | $234.0M | 18.3% | +25.8% |
| — Seat selection (part of Passenger) | $88.0M | 6.9% | +8.6% |
| — Other (part of Passenger) | $34.0M | 2.7% | +9.7% |
| Total non-fare passenger revenue | $622.0M | 48.6% | +13.1% |
| Other | $44.0M | 3.4% | +41.9% |
| Total revenue | $1.28B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 148.6% of total revenue.

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-29)

- "Further, this guidance excludes special items and the reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the comparable GAAP measures because such amounts cannot be determined at this time."
- "Adjusted (non-GAAP) diluted earnings per share guidance for the third and fourth quarters of 2026, as noted below, reflects continued progress across key commercial initiatives, underpinned by favorable competitive 3 capacity and strong travel demand, while elevated fuel prices continue to be a cost headwind."
- "Third quarter capacity is expected to increase 17 to 18 percent versus the corresponding 2025 quarter, partially a function of lapping unproductive aircraft in the corresponding 2025 quarter, or 2 to 3 percent sequentially."
- "Fourth quarter capacity is expected to increase approximately 7 percent versus the corresponding 2025 quarter."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.06 | $-0.16 | -61.0% | $1.29B | 11 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.09 | $0.22 | -140.0% | $1.29B | 10 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.55 | $-0.72 | -23.8% | $4.90B | 12 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.25 | $0.31 | -19.2% | $5.41B | 12 |