# Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/UMAC · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Unusual Machines, Inc. (UMAC), nexqual.com/UMAC" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 16.27 (-4.18% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 16.98 · day 15.65–16.93 · 52w 7.25–34.93 · market cap $813M · ASE

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $31.9M, net income -$6.5M (-20.3% margin), free cash flow -$58.5M (SEC filings).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 10 Form 4 filings, $8.8M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($3.8M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.63 on a 1–5 scale) (8 analysts), mean target USD 39 (range 30–45).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +37.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y +444.1% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD -0.16, revenue estimate $12.3M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0K | $0K | $5.6M | $11.2M | $31.9M |
| Gross profit | $0K | $0K | $1.5M | $3.9M | — |
| Operating income | -$1.2M | -$2.4M | -$17.0M | -$25.2M | -$29.8M |
| Net income | -$1.2M | -$2.4M | -$32.0M | -$19.2M | -$6.5M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.29 | -$0.72 | -$3.84 | -$0.74 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$1.2M | -$1.8M | -$4.0M | -$23.2M | -$58.5M |
| Gross margin | — | — | 27.8% | 34.9% | — |
| Operating margin | — | — | -305.3% | -224.6% | -93.5% |
| Net margin | — | — | -574.6% | -171.4% | -20.3% |
| Revenue growth | — | — | — | +101.2% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $3.1M | $895K | $3.8M | $142M | — |
| Total debt | — | $0K | — | — | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/S 25.5x · P/B 2.1x · FCF yield -7.20% · Earnings yield -0.80%

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
8 of 10 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Hoff Brian Joseph | Chief Financial Officer | 11,413 | $297K | 3.2% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-20 | Camden Andrew Ross | President | 9,625 | $250K | 3.9% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-08-20 | Wright Stacy Rochelle | Chief Revenue Officer | 27,500 | $715K | 28.6% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-05…2026-06-08 | Thompson Jeffrey M | Director | 30,000 | $816K | 0.6% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2025) |
| 2026-06-04 | Camden Andrew Ross | President | 100,000 | $3.0M | 28.8% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-06-01 | Rich Sanford | Director | 25,000 | $725K | 12.1% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-27 | Hoff Brian Joseph | Chief Financial Officer | 150,000 | $2.7M | 29.8% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-21 | Rich Sanford | Director | 1,392 | $20K | 0.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023) |
| 2026-05-21 | Camden Andrew Ross | President | 9,625 | $136K | 2.7% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
| 2026-05-21 | Hoff Brian Joseph | Chief Financial Officer | 11,412 | $162K | 2.2% | Yes | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023 or 2024) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.63 on a 1–5 scale), 8 analysts; mean target USD 39 (low 30, high 45).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | Needham | Reiterated | Buy | $40 |
| 2026-08-12 | Piper Sandler | Initiated | Overweight | $38 |
| 2026-08-06 | Needham | Target raised | Buy | $30 → $40 |
| 2026-07-15 | HC Wainwright & Co. | Initiated | Buy | $42 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2024-02-12) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +37.0% | +444.1% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +37.1% | +87.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 127.8% | 159.9% |
| Max drawdown | -52.2% (Aug 2026→Oct 2026) | -73.5% (Nov 2024→May 2025) |

## Peers (Computer Hardware)
BRAI (Braiin Limited) USD 3.87 -5.84% · QMCO (Quantum Corporation) USD 16.98 -3.63% · SSYS (Stratasys, Ltd.) USD 6.83 -1.59% · NNDM (Nano Dimension Ltd.) USD 1.38 -2.13% · PSQL (Pasqal Holding SA) USD 5.65 -8.28% · ADIG (ADI Global Distribution Inc.) USD 16.48 -0.42%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/UMAC · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Enterprise Revenue | $14.3M | 85.7% | +1624.5% |
| Retail Revenue | $2.4M | 14.3% | +85.0% |
| Total revenue | $16.7M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 16.7%, 15.9% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-03-12).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-06)

- "As a note, we do not expect Q3 revenue to follow this historical quarterly pattern, as our additional labor and capacity are engaged in foundational work to enable us to dramatically expand in Q4 and into 2027."
- "I expect production margins to decline from the 34.7% reported in Q2 as we incur introduction costs in Q3, then rebound in Q4 as revenue ramps up quickly again."
- "We are still targeting to achieve this by the end of 2026 as revenues increase and margins recover from the anticipated pressure created by the introduction of new operating centers and processes."
- "Our focus remains on building the infrastructure necessary to support that ecosystem, and we are pursuing this with the expectation that we will not be demand-limited through 2027."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.16 | $-0.06 | +166.7% | $12.3M | 3 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.12 | $-0.04 | +166.7% | $19.0M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.20 | $0.00 | — | $56.4M | 2 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $-0.32 | $0.02 | -1716.6% | $112.2M | 3 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±17.7%; earnings reaction alone ±9.5%; last 7 reports averaged ±6.3%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 96.3% | ±11.3% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 110.1% | ±17.7% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 108.6% | ±21.6% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 100.6% | ±22.4% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 98.7% | ±24.9% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 98.1% | ±26.4% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 93.6% | ±30.4% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 90.9% | ±35.6% |