# United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/UPS · data as of 2026-10-22 20:02 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS), nexqual.com/UPS" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 101.52 (+1.96% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 99.57 · day 99.01–101.97 · 52w 86.3–122.41 · market cap $86.4B · NYQ

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $89.9B, net income $4.57B (5.1% margin), free cash flow $5.46B (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 18.9x (avg 18.0x at the last 3 fiscal year-ends).
- 7 of 80 tracked superinvestors hold UPS (13F, Q2 2026): 1 new, 3 added, 2 reduced, 1 unchanged.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.69 on a 1–5 scale) (29 analysts), mean target USD 113.69 (range 76–135).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y +24.3% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -36.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-10-27, EPS estimate USD 1.62, revenue estimate $22.3B.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $97.3B | $100B | $91.0B | $91.1B | $88.7B | $89.9B |
| Operating income | $12.8B | $13.1B | $9.14B | $8.47B | $7.87B | $6.58B |
| Net income | $12.9B | $11.5B | $6.71B | $5.78B | $5.57B | $4.57B |
| EPS (diluted) | $14.68 | $13.20 | $7.80 | $6.75 | $6.56 | — |
| Free cash flow | $10.8B | $9.34B | $5.08B | $6.21B | $4.76B | $5.46B |
| Operating margin | 13.2% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% |
| Net margin | 13.2% | 11.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.1% |
| Revenue growth | +15.0% | +3.1% | -9.3% | +0.1% | -2.6% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $10.6B | $7.59B | $6.07B | $6.32B | $5.89B | — |
| Total debt | $21.9B | $19.7B | $25.3B | $22.9B | $24.2B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 18.9x · P/S 1.0x · P/FCF 15.8x · P/B 5.7x · FCF yield 6.32% · Earnings yield 5.29% · Dividend yield (paid, TTM) 6.26% · Buyback yield (TTM) 0.00%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 15.1x, Dec 2024 18.7x, Dec 2023 20.2x.

## Superinvestors (SEC 13F-HR, Q2 2026)
7 of 80 tracked investors hold UPS. Each row is the investor's latest 13F; change is vs their prior-quarter share count.
| Investor | Firm | % of portfolio | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Miller | Miller Value Partners | 2.95% | $12.5M | Reduced -2.6% |
| Harry Burn | Sound Shore | 2.65% | $86.2M | Added +10.1% |
| Hillman Capital | Hillman Capital Management | 1.74% | $2.4M | Unchanged |
| Van Den Berg Management I |  | 0.58% | $2.7M | Added +1.4% |
| Bruce Berkowitz | Fairholme Capital | 0.17% | $2.6M | New position |
| Tweedy Browne |  | 0.14% | $1.8M | Added +7.2% |
| Mairs & Power | Mairs & Power Funds | 0.01% | $1.2M | Reduced -34.0% |

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.69 on a 1–5 scale), 29 analysts; mean target USD 113.69 (low 76, high 135).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Bernstein | Target lowered | Outperform | $131 → $127 |
| 2026-10-20 | Evercore ISI Group | Target lowered | In-Line | $118 → $107 |
| 2026-10-07 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $132 → $122 |
| 2026-10-07 | Truist Securities | Target lowered | Buy | $130 → $115 |
| 2026-07-29 | Stifel | Target raised | Buy | $114 → $115 |
| 2026-07-29 | Susquehanna | Target raised | Neutral | $118 → $120 |
| 2026-07-29 | Stephens & Co. | Target lowered | Overweight | $135 → $130 |
| 2026-07-29 | Oppenheimer | Target raised | Outperform | $115 → $117 |
| 2026-07-29 | UBS | Target raised | Buy | $123 → $124 |
| 2026-07-29 | BMO Capital | Target raised | Market Perform | $110 → $115 |
| 2026-07-21 | Evercore ISI Group | Target raised | In-Line | $111 → $117 |
| 2026-07-21 | Bernstein | Target raised | Outperform | $130 → $133 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | +24.3% | -36.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | +24.4% | -8.8% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 30.3% | 28.8% |
| Max drawdown | -20.6% (Jul 2026→Sep 2026) | -56.4% (Jan 2022→Oct 2025) |

## Peers (Integrated Freight & Logistics)
FDX (FedEx Corporation) USD 303.92 +1.91% · EXPD (Expeditors International of Was) USD 196.19 -0.42% · JBHT (J.B. Hunt Transport Services, I) USD 230.59 +0.87% · CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.) USD 142.31 +0.96% · FDXF (FedEx Freight Holding Company, ) USD 111.02 +2.84% · ZTO (ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.) USD 20.06 +0.96%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/UPS · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in UPS's own 10-K filed 2026-02-17 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1090727/000162828026008432/ups-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Customer | Amazon (AMZN) | "In 2025, one customer, Amazon.com, Inc. and its affiliates, represented approximately 10.6% of our consolidated revenues, substantially all of which was within our U.S. Domestic Package segment." |

Other companies that name UPS in their own reports (relationship from UPS's side):

| Relationship | Company | Their filing | Sentence |
|---|---|---|---|
| customer | Armlogi Holding Corp. (BTOC) | 10-K 2026-09-28 | "We rely on third-party logistics providers, such as FedEx and United Parcel Service, Inc. ("UPS"), for end-to-end delivery, as we do not have our own in-house delivery team or vehicles." |
| partner | LuxExperience B.V. (LUXE) | 20-F 2026-09-16 | "Customer complaints or negative publicity about our sites, products, third-party vendors, product delivery times, logistics providers, such as DHL, FedEx and UPS, social media providers, customer supp…" |
| supplier | RADIANT LOGISTICS, INC (RLGT) | 10-K 2026-09-14 | "The Company's primary transportation services involve arranging shipments, on behalf of its customers, of materials, products, equipment, and other goods that are generally larger than shipments handl…" |
| customer | Paylocity Holding Corp (PCTY) | 10-K 2026-08-05 | "We rely on third-party couriers such as the United Parcel Service, or UPS, to ship printed checks to our clients, and any disruptions in their operations that impact their ability to successfully perf…" |
| supplier | NEOGEN CORP (NEOG) | 10-K 2026-07-30 | "We ship a significant portion of our products to customers through independent package delivery companies, such as UPS, Federal Express and DHL." |
| competitor | FEDEX CORP (FDX) | 10-K 2026-07-20 | "Competitors for Express U.S. Domestic include other package delivery concerns, principally United Parcel Service, Inc. ("UPS"), passenger airlines offering express package services, regional delivery …" |
| supplier | INVO Fertility, Inc. (IVF) | 10-K 2026-06-02 | "ship our products to our customers through known independent package delivery companies, such as FedEx and UPS." |
| customer | AsiaStrategy (SORA) | 20-F 2026-04-30 | "primarily rely international and domestic courier and logistic companies for the shipping from the suppliers, DHL, FedEx, UPS, or SF" |
| customer | SciSparc Ltd. (SPRC) | 20-F 2026-04-29 | "the customer depends on third parties outside of our control, including suppliers and logistics providers such as FedEx, UPS, postal services" |
| customer | Digital Brands Group, Inc. (DBGI) | 10-K 2026-04-15 | "suppliers and logistics providers such as FedEx, UPS and the U.S. Postal Service." |
| supplier | Arrive AI Inc. (ARAI) | 10-K 2026-04-15 | "like FedEx and UPS and retailers like Walmart and CVS have automation efforts underway as well but they are prospective customers for" |
| customer | Lovesac Co (LOVE) | 10-K 2026-04-02 | "A significant portion of our customers' brand experience also depends on third parties outside our control, including manufacturers, suppliers, assembly and installation service providers and logistic…" |
| supplier | LightInTheBox Holding Co., Ltd. (LITB) | 20-F 2026-04-02 | "We use global online marketing platforms such as Google and Facebook to reach our customers, we accept payments through all major credit cards and electronic payment platforms such as Visa, MasterCard…" |
| customer | Lulu's Fashion Lounge Holdings, Inc. (LVLU) | 10-K 2026-03-30 | "A significant portion of our customers' experience depends on third parties outside of our control, including suppliers and logistics providers such as UPS and the U.S. Postal Service." |
| supplier | ENERGY FOCUS, INC/DE (EFOI) | 10-K 2026-03-24 | "The increase in commercial sales was primarily driven by a $0.5 million UPS project delivered to a new customer in Taiwan, representing approximately 36% of commercial sales in 2025." |

## Revenue by business segment (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY | Operating income | Op. margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Domestic Package | $14.93B | 65.4% | +6.0% | $16.0M | 0.1% |
| International | $5.04B | 22.1% | +12.5% | $623.0M | 12.4% |
| Supply Chain Solutions ("SCS") | $2.86B | 12.5% | +7.8% | — | — |
| Corporate costs (not allocated) | — | — | — | $291.0M | — |
| Total revenue | $22.83B | 100% | — | $639.0M | 2.8% |

## Revenue by product line (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Logistic | $1.54B | 6.7% | +4.3% |
| Forwarding | $791.0M | 3.5% | +8.1% |
| Product & Service Other | $529.0M | 2.3% | +18.9% |
| Total revenue | $22.83B | 100% | — |
The lines above cover 12.5% of total revenue.

## Revenue by region (fiscal year ended 2025-12-31)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S | $67.43B | 76.1% | -4.2% |
| International | $21.23B | 23.9% | +2.6% |
| Total revenue | $88.66B | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2025-12-31: 10.6% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-K, filed 2026-02-17).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-07-28)

- "Outlook to Approximately $91.2B and Non-GAAP Adj."
- "Diluted EPS Guidance to Approximately $7.22 ATLANTA – July 28, 2026 – UPS (NYSE:UPS) today announced second-quarter 2026 consolidated revenues of $22.8 billion."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $1.62 | $1.73 | -6.2% | $22.28B | 24 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.75 | $2.67 | +3.0% | $25.53B | 23 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $7.20 | $7.13 | +1.0% | $91.74B | 28 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $8.06 | $8.02 | +0.4% | $95.17B | 28 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-10-30 (includes earnings 2026-10-27): ±6.8%; last 8 reports averaged ±7.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 57.7% | ±6.8% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 44.3% | ±7.2% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 38.8% | ±7.6% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 36.4% | ±8.7% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 34.6% | ±9.0% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 33.1% | ±9.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 30.7% | ±9.7% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 28.4% | ±10.9% |