# Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/UPST · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST), nexqual.com/UPST" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 23.85 (+0.80% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 23.66 · day 23.42–24.35 · 52w 22.21–55.22 · market cap $2.32B · NMS

## Key facts
- Last four reported quarters (through Jun 30, 2026): revenue $1.25B, net income $60.3M (4.8% margin) (SEC filings).
- Valuation: P/E 38.5x (avg 87.7x at the last 1 fiscal year-ends).
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 16 Form 4 filings, $5.6M; 13 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($5.2M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 14 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Insider open-market purchases, last ~7 months: 3 Form 4 filings, $7.7M; 0 by opportunistic insiders, 3 by routine insiders.
- Analysts: Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale) (16 analysts), mean target USD 38.38 (range 18–61).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -54.2% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -93.0% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-03, EPS estimate USD 0.65, revenue estimate $365M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2021 | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $849M | $907M | $514M | $637M | $1.04B | $1.25B |
| Operating income | $141M | -$114M | -$257M | -$173M | $42.6M | $49.7M |
| Net income | $135M | -$109M | -$240M | -$129M | $53.6M | $60.3M |
| EPS (diluted) | $1.43 | -$1.31 | -$2.87 | -$1.44 | $0.45 | — |
| Free cash flow | $160M | -$667M | -$113M | $185M | -$148M | -$289M |
| Operating margin | 16.6% | -12.6% | -50.0% | -27.2% | 4.1% | 4.0% |
| Net margin | 16.0% | -12.0% | -46.8% | -20.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% |
| Revenue growth | +263.6% | +6.9% | -43.4% | +23.9% | +64.0% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $1.19B | $532M | $368M | $788M | $652M | — |
| Total debt | $695M | $986M | $1.04B | $1.40B | $1.83B | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/E 38.5x · P/S 1.9x · P/B 2.9x · FCF yield -12.45% · Earnings yield 2.60%
P/E at fiscal year-ends: Dec 2025 87.7x.

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 of 16 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Datta Sanjay | President, Capital& Enterprise | 116,000 | $3.2M | 19.6% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-08-25 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | See Remarks | 913 | $27K | 2.5% | Yes (adopted November 28, 2025) | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-19…2026-08-20 | Datta Sanjay | President, Capital& Enterprise | 18,945 | $566K | 6.1% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-20 | Darling Scott | Chief Legal Officer | 7,696 | $216K | 6% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Sep & Oct & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-20 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | See Remarks | 586 | $16K | 1.6% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-17…2026-08-19 | Blankmeyer Andrea | Chief Financial Officer | 10,175 | $299K | 6.3% | Yes (adopted May 16, 2026) | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | Datta Sanjay | President, Capital& Enterprise | 2,033 | $60K | 0.6% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-08-17 | Darling Scott | Chief Legal Officer | 814 | $24K | 0.6% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Sep & Oct & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-09 | Datta Sanjay | President, Capital& Enterprise | 15,000 | $456K | 4.6% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-26 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | See Remarks | 974 | $28K | 2.5% | Yes | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-20 | Darling Scott | Chief Legal Officer | 6,634 | $191K | 4.9% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Sep & Oct & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-20 | Datta Sanjay | President, Capital& Enterprise | 7,985 | $230K | 2.4% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-20 | Mirgorodskaya Natalia | See Remarks | 526 | $15K | 1.4% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15 | Blankmeyer Andrea | Chief Financial Officer | 7,044 | $209K | 4.2% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15 | Darling Scott | Chief Legal Officer | 727 | $21K | 0.5% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Sep & Oct & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-15 | Datta Sanjay | President, Capital& Enterprise | 1,817 | $54K | 0.5% | No | Routine (sold in Feb & May & Aug & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Insider purchases (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
3 purchases, $7.7M. Private placements, offerings, dividend reinvestment and employee stock purchase plan buys are excluded.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | Avg price | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Gu Paul | Chief Executive Officer | 50,000 | $1.3M | 25.55 | Routine (traded in Feb & Sep & Nov each year 2023–2025) |
| 2026-05-13 | Gu Paul | Chief Executive Officer | 50,000 | $1.4M | 27.5 | Routine (traded in Feb & Sep & Nov each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |
| 2026-05-07 | Girouard Dave | Director | 170,240 | $5.0M | 29.37 | Routine (sold in Feb & Aug each year 2023–2025; this trade is outside those months) |

## Analysts
Consensus Hold (mean 2.50 on a 1–5 scale), 16 analysts; mean target USD 38.38 (low 18, high 61).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Citizens | Target lowered | Market Underperform | $20 → $18 |
| 2026-10-13 | Goldman Sachs | Target lowered | Neutral | $39 → $28 |
| 2026-09-22 | BTIG | Reiterated | Buy | $43 |
| 2026-09-09 | Loop Capital | Initiated | Hold | $34 |
| 2026-08-05 | Needham | Target raised | Buy | $40 → $42 |
| 2026-08-05 | Piper Sandler | Target raised | Overweight | $46 → $51 |
| 2026-08-05 | BTIG | Reiterated | Buy | $43 |
| 2026-07-22 | Citigroup | Target lowered | Buy | $80 → $61 |
| 2026-07-09 | Goldman Sachs | Target raised | Neutral | $32 → $39 |
| 2026-07-07 | Needham | Target raised | Buy | $37 → $40 |
| 2026-07-07 | BTIG | Reiterated | Buy | $43 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2021-10-18) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -54.2% | -93.0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -54.4% | -41.2% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 64.9% | 100.5% |
| Max drawdown | -56.9% (Oct 2025→Oct 2026) | -96.2% (Oct 2021→Mar 2023) |

## Peers (Credit Services)
AGM (Federal Agricultural Mortgage C) USD 201.42 +0.98% · ECPG (Encore Capital Group Inc) USD 100.36 -3.65% · WU (Western Union Company (The)) USD 6.43 +2.88% · EZPW (EZCORP, Inc.) USD 29.35 -11.60% · ATLC (Atlanticus Holdings Corporation) USD 91.53 -0.82% · BFH (Bread Financial Holdings, Inc.) USD 102.45 -5.69%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/UPST · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 36%, 17% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-04).

## Company outlook (8-K filed 2026-08-04)

- "For full-year 2026, Upstart continues to expect: • Total Revenue of approximately $1.4 billion ◦ Revenue From Fees of approximately $1.3 billion • Adjusted EBITDA (Margin % of Total Revenue) of approximately $294 million (21%) 1 This disaggregation does not represent the Company's operating segments under U.S."

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $0.65 | $0.66 | -1.5% | $364.8M | 6 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $0.74 | $0.81 | -9.1% | $382.3M | 6 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $2.29 | $2.31 | -1.0% | $1.42B | 8 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $3.57 | $3.37 | +6.0% | $1.86B | 8 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-03): ±15.7%; earnings reaction alone ±12.4%; last 8 reports averaged ±18.1%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 60.0% | ±7.2% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 97.2% | ±15.7% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 81.3% | ±16.0% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 78.4% | ±17.6% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 75.2% | ±18.8% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 70.3% | ±19.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 72.8% | ±22.9% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 65.6% | ±25.1% |