# USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR)

> Source: Nexqual · https://nexqual.com/USAR · data as of 2026-10-22 20:00 UTC · cite as "Nexqual, USA Rare Earth, Inc. (USAR), nexqual.com/USAR" · informational, not investment advice.

**Price:** USD 9.63 (-5.87% on the day) · last close of Oct 22, 2026; US market pre market, not a live price. Prev close 10.23 · day 9.41–10.06 · 52w 9.41–32.8 · market cap $3.61B · NGM

## Key facts
- Insider open-market sales, last ~7 months: 2 Form 4 filings, $1.5M; 2 not under a Rule 10b5-1 plan ($1.5M); 0 by opportunistic insiders, 0 by routine insiders (three-year test, Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski 2012).
- Analysts: Buy (mean 1.89 on a 1–5 scale) (9 analysts), mean target USD 35.56 (range 21–45).
- Total return with dividends: 1Y -60.0% vs S&P 500 +14.9%; 5Y -4.9% vs S&P 500 +80.3%.
- Next earnings: 2026-11-05, EPS estimate USD -0.15, revenue estimate $13.6M.

## Financials (SEC 10-K; TTM = last four 10-Q/10-K quarters)
| USD | FY2024 | FY2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $0K | $1.6M | — |
| Gross profit | $0K | $195K | — |
| Operating income | -$15.6M | -$59.5M | -$125M |
| Net income | -$15.7M | -$298M | -$284M |
| EPS (diluted) | -$0.40 | -$3.31 | — |
| Free cash flow | -$16.1M | -$86.3M | -$246M |
| Gross margin | — | 11.9% | — |
| Operating margin | — | -3621.6% | — |
| Net margin | — | -18110.7% | — |
| Cash + short-term investments | $16.8M | $360M | — |
Fiscal years end Dec. EPS is split-adjusted.

## Valuation (price ÷ last four quarters, through Jun 30, 2026)
P/B 1.4x · FCF yield -6.80% · Earnings yield -7.87%

## Insider sales (SEC Form 4, open-market, last ~7 months)
0 of 2 under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (scheduled in advance). Unplanned sales were timed by the insider.
| Trade date | Insider | Role | Shares | Value | % of holdings sold | 10b5-1 plan | Insider type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Humpton Barbara | Former Chief Executive Officer | 88,391 | $1.2M | 40.3% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
| 2026-06-08 | Trabuco Carolyn | Director | 13,000 | $296K | 40.9% | No | Too little history (no open-market trades in 2023–2025) |
% of holdings sold = shares sold ÷ (shares sold + all holdings the insider reported on that Form 4, direct and through trusts).
Insider type follows Cohen, Malloy & Pomorski (Journal of Finance, 2012). An insider who traded the stock in the same calendar month in each of the past three years is a routine trader; one who traded in each of those years without such a pattern is an opportunistic trader. In their study, trades by opportunistic insiders predicted future returns and trades by routine insiders did not. Counts open-market purchases and sales only (SEC Form 4 codes P and S) by that insider in that company. Not investment advice.

## Analysts
Consensus Buy (mean 1.89 on a 1–5 scale), 9 analysts; mean target USD 35.56 (low 21, high 45).
Rating changes, last 120 days:
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Jefferies | Initiated | Buy | $21 |
| 2026-07-22 | Needham | Target lowered | Buy | $39 → $33 |
| 2026-07-21 | Roth Capital | Target lowered | Buy | $40 → $30 |

## Total return (dividends reinvested)
|  | 1Y (from 2025-10-23) | 5Y (from 2023-07-17) |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | -60.0% | -4.9% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +14.9% | +80.3% |
| Per year | -60.1% | -1.5% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 102.2% | 92.1% |
| Max drawdown | -68.6% (Jun 2026→Oct 2026) | -70.5% (Oct 2025→Oct 2026) |

## Peers (Other Industrial Metals & Mining)
SKE (Skeena Resources Limited) USD 28.74 -9.25% · MTRN (Materion Corporation) USD 219.12 -12.43% · ALM (Almonty Industries Inc.) USD 8.75 -6.32% · MP (MP Materials Corp.) USD 38.56 -2.38% · SSMR (Sunshine Silver Mining & Refini) USD 13.17 -0.83% · NEXA (Nexa Resources S.A.) USD 11.16 -7.77%

## More
Full page: https://nexqual.com/USAR · Free keyless MCP server with the same data and citations: https://mcp.nexqual.com/mcp · Guide for agents: https://nexqual.com/agents · https://nexqual.com/llms.txt

## Supply chain and relationships (SEC annual reports)

Named in USAR's own 10-K filed 2026-03-30 (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1970622/000197062226000021/usar-20251231.htm):

| Relationship | Company | Sentence in the filing |
|---|---|---|
| Supplier | Less Common Metals | "Our success following completion of the LCM Acquisition depends on the ability to retain Less Common Metals' existing customers and suppliers, as well as our ability to build relationships with new customers and supplier…" |
| Partner | Round Top Mountain Development | "Round Top Mountain Development ("RTMD") is our joint venture with Texas Mineral Resources Corporation ("TMRC") that is driving the research and development of the Round Top Project." |
| Partner | Texas Mineral Resources | "Round Top Mountain Development ("RTMD") is our joint venture with Texas Mineral Resources Corporation ("TMRC") that is driving the research and development of the Round Top Project." |
| Partner | CABOT CORP (CBT) | "In 1987, Cyprus Metals Company ("Cyprus") entered into a joint venture with Cabot and took over the project." |

## Revenue by region (quarter ended 2026-06-30)

| Line | Revenue | Share | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| International | $4.1M | 70.1% | — |
| United States | $1.7M | 29.9% | — |
| Total revenue | $5.8M | 100% | — |

## Customer concentration

Period ended 2026-06-30: 29%, 26%, 23%, 18% of revenue from unnamed direct customers (10-Q, filed 2026-08-10).

## Analyst estimates and revisions

| Period | EPS est. | 90d ago | Change | Revenue est. | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (ends 2026-09-30) | $-0.15 | $-0.16 | -8.8% | $13.6M | 5 |
| Next quarter (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.10 | $-0.07 | +48.7% | $47.1M | 3 |
| Current fiscal year (ends 2026-12-31) | $-0.57 | $-0.55 | +3.0% | $73.5M | 4 |
| Next fiscal year (ends 2027-12-31) | $0.03 | $0.03 | -10.0% | $713.3M | 4 |

## Options: expected move (Cboe, 15-min delayed)

Expected move by 2026-11-06 (includes earnings 2026-11-05): ±13.8%; earnings reaction alone ±4.0%; last 7 reports averaged ±5.7%.

| Expiration | Days | ATM IV | Expected move |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | 7 | 85.1% | ±10.1% |
| 2026-11-06 | 14 | 85.5% | ±13.8% |
| 2026-11-13 | 21 | 84.3% | ±16.5% |
| 2026-11-20 | 28 | 88.7% | ±19.9% |
| 2026-11-27 | 35 | 85.9% | ±21.4% |
| 2026-12-04 | 42 | 83.2% | ±22.6% |
| 2026-12-18 | 56 | 85.9% | ±27.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 84 | 85.6% | ±33.4% |